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Cautious - previous overly optimistic statements from IDP are all due to previous CEO Haris who was always a glass half full man. He has now left. In terms of BOD they are not excessively paid, they have not replaced Haris so effectively 2 are doing work of 3, and until late March the business was functionally as normal. This is only just over 2 weeks ago. This is not a company who has seen there revenue fall to zero overnight. Maybe changes will occur re wages and furloughing staff if lockdown is continued into summer.
I agree with your comment that this in predominantly a 3 month business as peak tanning sells are April to June, and clearly it is an unknown what impact the current situation will have, hence the RNS. However, i disagree with DTC comment as this is a RNS so company cannot state sales are healthy to date via this channel if they are not.
Clearly if lockdown goes through the summer this will have a big impact on revenues but it is also possible things may be relaxed in May and June. We just don't know at this time.
The other thing you have omitted is that whilst retail sales will be minimal during lockdown all retailers have already made large orders. Boots restocked in Jan (including 800 extra stores) plus SD for ST and nuthing and now the new Tesco order.
It is likely that these orders will total over £2m . With stock levels increased in anticipation of these (and to prevent selling out as happened with wonder serum last year) this will go straight on the profit line - i reckon stock of £1m released and £2m revenue generated.
I don't think you can just look at H1 figures as IDP make a loss in H1 every year - it also includes R&D which won't occur in H2. Last year IDP made £1.4m profit - 0.4m loss in H1 and £1.8m profit in H2.
IDP revenue will definitely suffer in H2 however DTC will at least ensure a reasonable performance and hopefully IDP will be in a position to preserve cash.
I'm expecting full year rev of between £10 and £12m . I think that puts us in a much better position than many companies of a similar size - DISH, IMMO and SSTY to name but 3
People tan to make them feel good. To make them look good on photos and video calls. All signs so far suggest there is still a strong market for Skinny tan. Search for #skinnytan on Instagram and you'll see plenty of people posting about still tanning despite the lockdown. Go to Facebook and you'll see that their latest video has 161,000 views in less than a week. Recent Facebook posts are getting 250 comments. There's definitely activity there.
If you can assure us provide the numbers to back up your assurances on web traffic. You must have a source to be so confident.
Blimey .... lol OK
That told us! You hear that Shandy?
Management of this company has continuously been optimistic but when results come out they have not met expectations. Looking at the website traffic I can assure you not all is well and compared to last year, DTC sales will be around half as much.
Management has talked about retail sales being shifted to DTC. DTC not being effected etc. Making investors think optimistically when in reality sales are taking a nosedive.
To be specific, this is not a 6 month business but a 3 month business and spin it whichever way you want, those 3 months are going to be affected big time. Government is going to take more stringent actions. No more going to parks etc. Once tanning season is gone its gone. Looking at other countries it will take around 4 months to get back to normal. Wuhan the original epicentre still not fully opened up yet.
People were tan for others to see, such as when they are going out on the weekend, special events etc. No one is going to put in effort to tan just to sit at home. A better cheer yourself up is junk food.
BTW I cannot recall writing there.
Wow ,,,, quite a first post there!!
How do you know for certain that people won't be going out.... by say .. June?
And if there are no foreign holidays happening this year, the ladies might buy more tan than usual to look good??
So, we could well be shocked on the positive side when the results come. And 'there' is spelt 'their'!
Plus .... why did a director of Reckitt Benckiser buy a load of shares recently? Perhaps she doesn't know her business very well??!!
I disagree mate, directors not on huge salaries here, £50k wish p.a I think just over, and many of the women I know like the tan , makes them feel good etc , I know I might even consider it it I can't go away august! Tesco Asda Superdrug and boots are still open, only heard a couple have shut beauty section in boots, no one else has done that and 60% of our sales are DTC and these are going well as reported, there's no false hope given here, no one is talking about a loss second half just being realistic , in these uncertain times I think idp is pretty safe investment at these prices there's certainly some upside, plus seen it all before here, nothing shocks me anymore lol I'm here for the long term, not many better ops out there at the mo imo
I think a optimistic tone has been set, giving investors a false sense of hope. No talk of Directors wages being cut etc. Also if sales are similar or worse than sales for the first half of the financial year and they are loss making in the first half. That will mean a loss will be made in the second half. First half of next financial year will again be loss making. Can 18 months of losses be sustained but directors still paid in full.
Btw I can assure you DTC will take a big hit aswell. People use fake tan when they are going out, with people stuck in doors demand will have a big drop. Also the tanning shops that used Skinny Tan will be closed so another source of revenue closed. I saw Boots closed there beauty section and only there pharmacy section was open.
People who are optimistic now will be shocked on results day.