We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"professional investors won't"
Professional investors would of sold out at the start of the pandemic give it another 6 months and they may start reinvesting
I think the RI would have been relatively high. Also, IMO, if people didn't have the spare cash laying around to buy into the RI, they may have been selling their shares last week, so they had the funds available to take up the discounted shares.
So, now they'll have more shares, for a similar value (and hopefully still want to hold as they did beforehand).
I don't see Monday being a huge day - all those that didn't want to take part in the RI would have sold the rights to their shares, which would have been bought by someone who did want to take part. So, the majority of the shares from the RI should be in the hands of investors who wanted to take them up.
Agree with you calamari, we'll know the outcome of the RI takeup on Thursday so will be known before 7th. People will make judgements after 1st. If they wat to sell they will sell existing pre-rights shares.
My opinion is that If the takeup is really low then the underwriters will have had to fork out a lot of euros. They are not going to dump a load of shares on the 7th, that will just cause a rapid price drop and an increase in their losses.
PB makes some valid points as does GW, in truth nobody knows if the RI was undersubscribed yet but there is some evidence that it might be. If it's by a small amount it won't matter but if its a large amount SP will fall, but as PB points out, vaccine/testing news might trump that and increase the SP.
No chance of it being nationalised, its not a wholly owned UK company and there would be too many legal hurdles. IAG could however, apply for a loan/support from the EU for BA but that could be muddied by Brexit. Too many issues to call hence the SP is cheap for what it is. I don't care what peoples opinions are as long as they argue them coherently without personalising. Disagree by all means but do it constructively otherwise this becomes a ****ging bord not a BB!
I don't know how it will do on the 7th but i'll call it now for the 30th Oct, BA would have burnt more cash because of one off's that might scare people on the day with a SP drop but tthen the only way is up after the 30th...If it goes to 50-60p around 7th I will be buying.... but not before...
I've said before,I think investors need to be realistic.
There're currently 1,992,032,664 shares in issue.
On 7th Oct another 2,979,443,376 new shares become tradable.
Meaning a total of 4,971,476,040 shares are in issue.
I truly feel the pain of existing holders, although sadly the market will be flooded with huge sells. Because if existing holders have already just invested, where are you going to find new buyers?
The current price is almost at the rights price, before we get to wednesday. That was supposed to be your special price to soak up your pain. Why are existing holders going to throw even more cash at a falling knife?
Now look at daily cash burn, desperate ticket sales just to fill 'some' seats. Next year seats selling for peanuts. Even if covid ended tomorrow there is a huge job bouncing back, plus holiday season is over.
I'm sorry so say the price is looking at 80p next week, falling to 60, the 50 by end of Oct-20. Then you have the trading update which is likely to be desperate. Then 35p
I might dip my toe in at 50p as a pure gamble trade for 5k shares, but even then I think there will further slide, into 30's. Writing is on the wall. If it doesn't fall, I won't touch it, more value in banks at this level of risk.
Good luck Rick.
Ben, there are no guarantees! it could be 150p on 7th October it could be 30p. I haven't seen anyone guaranteeing a fall. Just predictions that is all & in most cases some rationales for those predictions. In truth there may be a vaccine announced on 6th October in which case i would predict it to rise!
interesting for me the contrary I was allocated 247 instead of 1900 shares. Out of curiosity how many of the pessimists here are actually short on IAG. If guaranteed to fall on 7th October why not declare your shorts.
Paddy - I'm a small time investor in this (god knows for how long if I want to sell at a profit). I was allocated about 2400 shares in in my rights take-up, I had to directly contact IG to tell them it should have actually been just over 200.
Could have been an admin mistake but was a bit of a laugh when I saw it in my account.
Calamari, posters on here have been allocated shares in excess of their entitled rights which means the RI has not been fully taken up! & also BoD have not taken their rights either!
I have to say WAM you have taken some stick
on this BB and I have seen your views going all the way back to April and you did call it. I never believed it when you stated repeatedly that the SP would fall back below 159p the post Covid low and it did, from 350p to 155p and here we are discussing the IAG share price of 80p which now looks a dead cert. A BB needs balance not just for committed investors but for those who are considering a position so that all views can be considered. I am a long term holder who fortunately saw the risk in the RI and did not participate, this is a great company with great potential but why buy something today when it can be so much cheaper in the coming weeks?
I think the data regarding the RI take up is released on Thursday, should make interesting reading. I Have to say the SP does seem sluggish the dynamic antibody testing is having little impact on the price and I can certainly see a 10% drop next Wednesday.
Paddyboy. You shouldn't be slated! It's a valid opinion that makes sense.
Paddy many thanks for the other examples...makes sense. Will take a look back at those. Cheers Paddy!
Marsaud, it is my view that the SP will fall on 7th October. Main reason being that it has not been fully subscribed to. Secondly i believe a lot of investors may have been duped into believing that the TERP price of 134 was going to be the market price on the 7th Oct & subscribed as they saw an easy 50p profit. Many believe will have overinvested on this basis & will need the cash back so will sell. The Board of Directors have not even fully subscribed to the RI which says nothing for their confidence in the share price. I took part in the BT RI back in early 2000s which was successful because it was for the right reasons (acquisition & reduced gearing). Whitbread's recent one was a success because it was fully backed up & subscribed. I will get slated as a deramper for saying this but only time will tell & of course if sentiments change in the sector in the interim period i may well be wrong. Good luck
Hi all!! Long time lurkers here and recently made redundant after 25 years with BA sadly. It was a great ride though. I’ve been invested on and off for years in IAG and wondering whether people have had experience of an RI before. What happened on the actual day? Did the SP plummet/rise/remain?
Any thoughts as to what will happen on the 7th and why?
Many thanks. Good luck to everyone that is holding here.