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We all know why share is down, factored for, accounted, old news, anything new?
@bluelight
"Opening borders will cause a significant second wave, and the only reason its allowed at all is that it is financially unfeasible for the economy to remain closed. In short the government is putting money over people health and lives."
This is utter rubbish. The lockdown is costing lives in suicides, domestic murders, increased substance abuse which leads to increased addiction, delayed cancer and other treatments, etc. Destroying the economy does all those things. The unemployed are more vulnerable to depression, addiction, etc. There's a direct correlation between poverty and shortened life expectancy. You can't say that it's just about money over people's health and lives. If they don't restart the economy it's destroying health and lives. That includes flying.
In my view, Labour has failed as an opposition by failing to challenge the government on the cost of the lockdown. There will be no money for the NHS, no money for a social safety net, no money for anything, if there is no economy.
Absolutely borders need to be open to the greatest extent possible. No one wants a huge second wave but no one should want a dead economy, either. It's only those who think government money springs out of nowhere in endless supplies that don't care about the economy. It's not money vs lives, it's lives vs lives.
Ahh Mr big shot whata**** is back, ahead of the hedge funds, institutions, calling a share to fall more than 50% when not a single short on it has been recorded!
As someones mentioned if we took your advice first time round to short we'd all be bankrupt by now...
Go sit back down!
@luddite / Bricks
Research the CARES Act and Medicaid supplement. It's an extra payment made to hospitals by the US Government for Medicaid patients who have COVID-19. It guarantees that numbers won't be under-counted, and that whenever a patient (whether they live or die) can be considered to have / have had COVID, they will be.
US numbers high? Yes, I'm sure they are. The Land of the Free won't take kindly to lockdowns and being told to wear face masks, it's not in their emotional makeup to let uppity bureaucrats tell them what to do. They'd rather throw the face masks in Boston Harbour while claiming that forcing them to buy one is taxation without representation. But I really doubt that the real number of cases and deaths in America is as high as reported -- every questionable case will be reported as COVID.
Do we have similar incentives here? I don't know. But when a government puts everyone in lockdown with a stated goal of "flattening the curve" and "protecting the NHS" and then keeps the lockdown (or parts of it) even when the curve is flat and the NHS is under no threat, they lose trust.
@trev, google Covid-19 timeline of events.
You can get the WHO version, but I didn't even bother to read that because I don't trust them, I think they catered to China too much. Wikipedia is useful but not always reliable. I primarily looked at this: https://bfpg.co.uk/2020/04/covid-19-timeline/
I also just have this bad habit of remembering mostly useless facts. Fortunately, I wasn't in IAG at the time. When it started to drop I did wonder if it was a buying opportunity I should grab but I wasn't paying that close attention until it went below 250. I grabbed it at 240.
@luditte off topic but I 100% agree with you, I know of this happening personally 100% on two cases near me.
2 people who died in the community, one was a road traffic acc whilst the other died in his sleep...neither had symptoms nor a positive test for covid. Family wanted bodies for obvious reasons, a quick burial and funeral so they can be at ease. Both cases it was stated to them if you want bodies instantly covid would be stated as their casue of death, which is what it states on death certs even though they never passed away from that 100%...imagine how many more like this?
I agree there is no 0% or 100% safe, I lived out of suit case for most of my working life, most of the time never even bothering to unpack it to avoid leaving stuff in hotels but I take the opposite view to you, today I read a reported 26 deaths and thats probably on the high side, its quite possible I have already had the virus and not even been aware of it , the risk of dying from it is very low and has been massively exaggerated by the media. The media did the same thing with AIDs in the 1980s and being a mug and a reader of Investors Chrinicle in those days I rushed out to buy shares in London International being one of their dead certs, everyone was going to get AIDs and we would all die except for those wearing a condom, whats not to like about that, how could I go wrong, I was going to be a millionaire and live, the projections of death rates and how many would die were ramped up every day by the BBC etc, the real risk has only become apparent decades later when most sufferers in developed countries do not die from it and today it hardly makes the news. I lived but did not make a million out of London International, I seem to remember them spiking and then ending up with a loss on them, We are being lied to about the death rates, everyone in the death industry has a vested interest in blaming every death on the virus as they get paid more to research it and come up with cures, I believe people are dying from Covid but nothing like the numbers that doctors are writing on death certificates, if you do get run over by a bus today the doctor will probably list you as having died of the virus if he can get away with it.
I'd love to see the odds on slipping on a banana skin and breaking your neck as opposed to catching a plane in a pandemic and contracting a virus. I suspect as a betting man you'd rather bet on the plane causing you issues. Nothing is risk free, but the point remains that you 'increase' your risk of catching it by flying. Now of course anyone can choose to accept that risk, but its the height of foolishness and worrying if people believe it is 100% safe. As a man who normally flies many many times a year i simply wont fly for now. Extrapolate that across the rest of the country and you have continued issues for airlines as long as the pandemic is a serious risk. And 13m global cases and rising rapidly is a serious risk, no matter how you look at it.
She was 80% full? ??
Mr bluelight, if you feel that a passenger jet is akin to being packed in a tin can then flying and airline stocks are probably not for you irrespective of virus they have always been higher risk, what might happen if you fall down some stairs and land on your head, then what if you are about to cross the road slip on a banana skin and you get run over by a bus, better if you stay in bed but what if the house collapses, have you thought about all these other things that can possibly go wrong to spoil your day ?
Its too contagious to be 100% captured. You can't tell me there's not a greater chance of catching it sat with hundreds of people directly around you and next to you, than say walking in an open park. Opening borders will cause a significant second wave, and the only reason its allowed at all is that it is financially unfeasible for the economy to remain closed. In short the government is putting money over people health and lives. Its not an easy choice and you can argue both sides, but to say its safe to fly is utter BS. You increase your risk of catching it by flying, plain and simple.
Wonderful news. 200 people packed into a metal tin can with a pandemic floating around, what can possibly go wrong....
My girlfriend flew BA yesterday from Amsterdam to Heathrow. Flight was full.
Thanks for your reply tmt.
Where do you get all your facts from - very informative? I read around but obviously not in the right places...
Trev
Closed at 642p on 19/2/2020. Next day, it started to drop.
Wuhan went into lockdown on 23 January. 24 January the Lancet mentioned pandemic potential. 30 January the WHO declared an international public emergency. 31 January Italy suspended flights from China, by mid February no one was flying from China and airline share holders had to have been getting nervous. In early February there were cases in Italy, but the share really began to drop once a major Italian outbreak was confirmed 21-22 February. By then, it wasn't just flights to China that shareholders would have been worried about.
This really is a coronavirus-induced drop in the SP.
Hello all.
Many people on here mention that this is a bargain as recently it was 6.50 (ish) a share. Im not denying this, but...
Towards the end of February, it had already dropped to 4.15. as far as i can recall this was before news of coronovirus hit. Does anyone know why this was at that price at the end of Feb?
Trev