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"The RI is a red herring. There may be a RI of course"
I am going to fill a glass later and raise a toast, "The RI is a red herring. There may be a RI of course, but nonetheless, it is a red herring - cheers!"
"The RI is a red herring. There may be a RI of course"
!
Yep, that is what Taky posted. A 'red herring' that might 'of course' happen.
"misleading to post out of date broker notes claiming that the risks around IAG are the same now as in early September. They're not."
Show us the updates. If circumstances have changed, then the broker notes will have been updated. In fact, instead, we had this a month later.
"It also downgrades IAG to "hold", given heightened equity
dilution risk which may weigh on shares early next year --- Berenberg
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IAG/berenberg-upgrades-easyjet-downgrades-iag-5yatu7tvtabidw2.html"
So the September notes are hardly out of date when a new broker pitches in with the point 'dilution risk'.
I ask again, does that mean a companies results are 'out of date' a month after posting? No, the information stands until it is updated. Identical to the broker notes. Until they update their words, they stand. It is not for some stranger on a public bb to arbitrarily declare such comments 'out of date'. There is no decay time or half-life for broker notes, news articles, editorials or other such like reporting. It is valid until updated.
Istabrraq - you're absolutely right. We should all seek challenge to our views. I'm often the first to challenge or seek challenge. The difficulty is when someone is spamming misleading information, especially when they don't really understand what they're spamming. I'd ascribe the dip to the re-emergence of covid fears. It's going to affect trading but not the investment decision. The RI is a red herring. There may be a RI of course, at any time, and it's a balance of risk as circumstances develop. There may even be a terrorist hijacking or a meteorite hitting the earth. Or a sudden buy out. Or the US is suddenly closed off to flights. Or anything really. But it's misleading to post out of date broker notes claiming that the risks around IAG are the same now as in early September. They're not.
Istabarq and all, Please note you are free to post at any time of day or night according to the LSE rules. You are not under any obligation to take instructions or be bound by posting limitations imposed by control freaks and trolls who seek to diminish your freedoms and overtly moderate the public boards narrative through bullying and coercion.
You will hear many here say DYOR, do your own research. Sadely, if your independent conclusions do not match theirs, you will be subject to intense trolling, abuse, negativity, filtering and open campaigns to persuade people to shun and stop interacting with you. So, DYOR with the RI information below, but you may want to be cautious about revealing your conclusions [although we are approaching remembrance day for the sacrifices made for our freedoms, in this environment freedom of speech and freedom to hear opinions does not apply it seems].
Here are some referenced sources for you to DYOR on the RI discussion [I call it the dilution discussion because ultimately it is any form of dilution which is worst scenario for pis]. If you can find any revisions to any of the referenced quotes I am sure everybody would appreciate the updates.
"""We have revolving credit facilities, we are analysing other ways of financing the group so we have alternatives before we [consider] another rights issue,""
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/ba-owner-iag-not-planning-tap-investors-funds-sunday-times-2021-09-19/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-wont-tap-city-for-emergency-funds-says-ba-owner-luis-gallego-mnz6szjtm
Sep 2021
Credit Suisse
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960029/british-airways-owner-iag-target-price-cut-to-reflect-increasing-rights-issue-risk-says-credit-suisse-960029.html
HSBC
"Lobbenberg [head of European transport equity research at HSBC] added that the timing of any potential capital raise by IAG could be linked to an announcement on reopening the US border, which is now expected in December"
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9980907/BA-owner-soon-raise-cash-shareholders.html
Goodbody
"Earlier this month, easyJet tapped investors for GBP1.2 billion in a fully underwritten rights issue ... Analysts at Goodbody and HSBC said they believed the British Airways parent would follow."
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1632125541714351000/press-iag-will-not-tap-investors-for-recovery-funds---sunday-times.aspx
Oct 2021
** It also downgrades IAG to "hold", given heightened equity
dilution risk which may weigh on shares early next year --- Berenberg
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IAG/berenberg-upgrades-easyjet-downgrades-iag-5yatu7tvtabidw2.html
Glenhoss, I hear you. Gotta filter out the bias & make your own decision. I know the air traffic levels have improved & potentially could return to 2019 levels in 2023, https://www.eurocontrol.int/press-release/new-eurocontrol-2021-2027-forecast-expects-traffic-recovery-2019-levels-end-2023.
Also been reading anecdotes about busy airport terminals & am now waiting for passenger data in the pending ryanair, wizz & iag results in early november to confirm this. Not really sure what to make of the IAG RI speculation atm, time will tell I guess. GLA.
Ista dyor... it’s sometimes misleading on these forums... bb and fugazi are not fair in all they say... they mislead to much.. your right in saying you want to hear the negative side to things as well.. but maybe not of those 2... make your own mind up do your own research...
Nobody is talking about buy or sell recommendations. Why are ou bringing that up when he subject is possible dilution.
As for the cep making misleading statements, there is a huge caveat posted,in the last update. And the ceo quote was no ' emergency' RI, and then went on to detail options wete being looked in order to avoid one later. The more you try to twist it around, the mote you draw attention to the words said as posted many times. You can't pretend it isn't there. You're making a laughing stock of yourself now.
And what's this about me being from BA. Ate you fishing or something? I have never had any role in any airline or anything connected with travel, retail, airlines or the like. The Times interview is unequivocal. A fourth broker raising the threat of an RI a month after the other 3 is very obvious.
And an analogy with a weather forecast? Eh? Weather is dynamic. The broker comments were checked, vetted, signed off by legal and published. They have not yet been updated. The target price or buy sell notes have never been part of this discussion.
Takayama, I am invested in IAG & also under water waiting impatiently for 200+. Currently holding but I have to query why has the SP fallen over the past week if the broker consensus/wisdom is to 'buy' ? As much as I do not like to read Big-blue, Fugazil1 & others opinion I do appreciate their opposing viewpoint. Do not get me wrong I would really really like to see & expect iag to do well in the long term., its just the current SP volatility does give them a justification & me to consider the alternative SP trajectory. Which in a blogging board is good thing IMO. GLA.
BB- you are wrong. If 'broker consensus' was sell, then there'd be a point to be made. We'd ALL be posting. But the consensus is clearly 'BUY'! Brokers notes have limited utility but 'consensus' has utility because of the intrinsic value in the "wisdom of the crowd". Consensus is 'buy'. I know it's complicated and you probably don't get it. Of course a RI would have significant impact! That's why it would be misleading for the CEO to state it isn't going to happen but be planning it in the background. He would be MISLEADING THE MARKET. That's tantamount to a criminal offence. That's not how blue chips work. There's so much regulation around, you wouldn't believe. And you have fundamentally not understood the purpose of the brokers' assessments. Look, if on Tuesday the weather forecast says it might rain on Friday, and then a high pressure front moves in on the Thursday night and the sky is blue and cloudless on Friday morning, are you going to go out dressed for rain? It's that simple. You don't have to wait for another broker note. They're doing another one for another client. They don't just produce a new broker note on every piece of news! They're a commercial company, not a news service for you!
I'm sorry you got sacked from BA, but move on, my friend. This board isn't for you. The rest of us want to get on with some proper analysis. We get you were unfairly treated. But you're embarrassing yourself bringing your personal beef here.
That quite curious Taky, if a broker is positive, in any way shape or form it is trumpeted repeatedly. Just like you did. As they are not the narrative you want to hear, you therefore belittle and dismiss as not relevant. Those statements are representative of the company and the companies reputation. They ate therefore defiantly not throw away comments as you want them to be. To make such a statement that a business needs to do a rights issue, is a very big statement that could have a significant impact pn the target business. For three to make the statement just can not dismissed, no matter how much you wish it. And then a fourth broker adds their voice. It can not be twisted away. And until IAG releases details of the review or the brokers issue new assessments, nothing has changed no matter how you want to wish it away. It exists, it is fact, it is live.
Maybe a tax on gods representatives for the volcanic emissions & suchlike? Also add in the bol.... tax & we might be onto a winner.
BB- A few points. (1) Brokers issue notes as part of a business. It isn't a service that they provide to you for free. They may have a client commissioning. Or a range of clients. It is valid for the day that it issued. It's up to you to look at it and decide whether or not the information therein is still valid. It is not 'the word of god'. If you don't believe the CEO, well, that's up to you. But Gallego would REALLY be holding himself up for the sack if he was deliberately misleading the market. (2) Being an analyst that produces notes like that is pretty much the bottom of the pile. All analysts use it as a stepping stone upwards. It isn't as prized as perhaps you may think it is. Perhaps you believe a lowly paid analyst who came to an assessment some time before the CEO made an announcement, rather than the CEO himself, but I guarantee you, you are in a tiny minority. (3) Investment is about looking at the company as a whole. It is different to trading. There are bits of news or information that may affect the INVESTMENT decision and bits of news that affect the TRADING decision. They are different things. (4) I didn't post price targets. What I posted were broker views on the buy or sell position. (5) It's fine. It's not easy. Otherwise we'd all be millionaires. But I'd suggest you may want to pop your own arrogant bubble. You really don't know what you're doing here and I struggle to believe that you have done this for 25 years as you claim. Maybe you are a disgruntled, sacked BA employee who got some shares 25 years ago, but that, I guess is it. Stop making a fool of yourself. Get another job and move on if you got sacked by BA. Stuff happens. You'll feel better if you move on.
Big-blue, volcanic eruptions/emissions will be categorised as an act of god. god resides in a tax haven & is thereby exempt. We can blame god, just can't tax the bugger. Everyone else has to foot the bill.
R8. A RTSC at atmospheric pressure replacing the copper wire grid will stop waste from transmission from power station to point of use. Currently the waste is about 40% of all power generated. The consequences for fossil fuel generation are quite clear.
The current state of research for a suitable SC are cupperats in ceramic form. They are know as high temperature SC at the temperature if liquid nitrogen and are used extensively in medical scanners and other specialized equipment.
If there was proper research budgets commensurate with other climate change research projects then the progress towards a practical SC to replace the grid would be a far better use of research money wrt the return on reduced co2 emissions.
So why isn't that done?
I remember doing stuff on cooper pairs and playing with SC during my undergraduate physics degree. I do known what I am talking about!
Not sure how I can have any egg on my face. All the above is verifiable fact, including the failure of the climate change lobby to press and demand major extensions to resryarch in the area to find a RTSC to replace the grid.
FOLLOW THR MONEY, OR RATHER WHERE THE MOST MONEY CAN BE MADE!
Glenhoss, that is funny. A talking Bol..lox tax. Sounds like a really good revenue generating idea.There is an endless list of enterprises & individuals spouting Bol...lox..The media would bankrupt themselves. Lol.
BB.. . A poor attempt to wipe egg off you face by continuing write like you know what you’re on about. Read up on Rango Dias and you’ll understand the progress they’ve made and the issues they still face.
I’m pointing this out because this thread and many others you post are far from the truth. You write like you know what you’re talking about but most often write misleading tosh with false confidence.
Methane tax for cows? How about a x-dioxide tax on volcanoes, or countries with active volcanoes. I mean, what are they doing to stop all those emissions?
OK Takya, you are posting nonsense. Nothing posted is out of date as there have not been any updates to any of the notes yet. Do results fade and become 'out of date' a few weeks after they are released, or do they remain valid until they are updated? The broker notes are still valid along with the CEO comment until they are updated. We are all waiting for the results of the financial review and I am sure when the conclusions are released the brokers will comment and those comments will then be the most recent.
The first three broker notes are early September, the CEO comment a week later and Breneberg a week or so ago. I could hardly have been posting them for months.
You keep posting the broker price targets. What has that got to do with the notes? I have never referenced any price target form any broker ever. They are generally meaningless. But the comments, as I copy when required to counter false posts that there is no financial review or dilution is not on the table, the comments are the part being referenced. It is a poor attempt at misdirection to try and impose the targets over the comments. Don't apply to the magicians magic circle for membership, you haven't got the green thumbs mate.
Your words are out of date! Keep up! Your analysis is based on out of date information. You've repeated the same point for a number of months based on the same out of date 3rd party analysis. It's all been overtaken! What don't you get? This is the current broker consensus:
What The Brokers Say
Strong Buy 19
Buy 3
Neutral 7
Sell 0
Strong Sell 0
Total 29
May we expect a methane tax for the farmers next?
If this is the extent of the assault on air travel, then it would be a modest affair and absorbable. However, I expect other very significant impositions to be put forward and forced on countries to adopt. If you are not allowed air space access because you aren't clobbering travellers with taxes and quotas, you have no choice but to apply whatever draconian restrictions the hysterical cult leaders apply.
"Don't believe media gossip on right issue"
Your word against these words?
"""We have revolving credit facilities, we are analysing other ways of financing the group so we have alternatives before we [consider] another rights issue,""
Sep 2021
Credit Suisse
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/960029/british-airways-owner-iag-target-price-cut-to-reflect-increasing-rights-issue-risk-says-credit-suisse-960029.html
HSBC
"Lobbenberg [head of European transport equity research at HSBC] added that the timing of any potential capital raise by IAG could be linked to an announcement on reopening the US border, which is now expected in December"
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9980907/BA-owner-soon-raise-cash-shareholders.html
Goodbody
"Earlier this month, easyJet tapped investors for GBP1.2 billion in a fully underwritten rights issue ... Analysts at Goodbody and HSBC said they believed the British Airways parent would follow."
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1632125541714351000/press-iag-will-not-tap-investors-for-recovery-funds---sunday-times.aspx
Oct 2021
** It also downgrades IAG to "hold", given heightened equity
dilution risk which may weigh on shares early next year --- Berenberg
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IAG/berenberg-upgrades-easyjet-downgrades-iag-5yatu7tvtabidw2.html
Don't believe media gossip on right issue. These stories are created by individual for their benefit.Shares buying and selling is individual choice. Individual have to take care of their investment and make sure that ending in losses
Cost of flights to rise as Rishi Sunak prepares to raise air passenger duty. Green tax?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/22/cost-of-flights-to-rise-as-rishi-sunak-prepares-to-raise-air-passenger-duty
Yes R8, in what little research is done on RTSC, this is the current status. The budget compared to funds wasted on crackpot schemes like carbon capture or co2 atmospheric extraction is tiny. As demonstrated with cuperate research, atmospheric SC can be advanced and the other research will most likely feed in to the solution for a viable RTSC. Given the size of losses in transmission, and the apparent urgency, why do you never hear about it? Why haven't budgets, laboratories, the great and good in science been put to work on it? Just 1% of the climate change trough would massively amplify the research. The ability to stop 40% of global power production being wasted should be so obvious, why is it unheard off? Because only a very few can make money from it and only for enough time as it takes to replaced power transmission grids.