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Why would they buy back shares? We have assets in the ground that need to be monetised. To do that we need Capital to be expended that will produce Operating Cash Flow. This would provide Working Capital. They diluted all shareholders by 30%
in order to increase the Cash Flow of the company in the future. I don't agree with the way its been done but we have over 8000 bopd that will increase our Cash Flow . The market is not taking this into account. Yet!
You've got to take into account roughly 10m warrant conversions recently, and who knows maybe more being converted as we speak.
GGG,
The volume on the day that Questor released the buy recommendation was 18m alone, with and average daily volume of 4.5m and not forgetting other RN's - we churned through way more than 50m. It looks like you've either significantly underestimated the require churn or else there's other reasons for the SP sitting at 12p.
Also we agree on a short term target of 15p + although you are saying 3 months and i'm saying after the gas hedges expire (around end of October).
DOPW - you need to DYOR and understand whether you can trust Management or not - if you dont there's got to be a question mark over your decision.
G_G_G
Thanks mate, yes I'm buying more today and will continue to do so, when I can. GLTA!
Ok, one more post.
Tony, I think if you go back through my posts I've been fairly consistent in saying +50m shares. And imo I doubt we're even half way though that number. I think a lot of buying and selling has been done by PIs so not necessarily rebalancing the II books. Just my opinion and I have no way of proving this to be the case. Agree on all your other points. My point about the f/o is it will create a new higher base i.e. a quick re-rate. Without it I too expect we should be back above 15p for all the reasons you've mentioned. That's 3 months though.
DOPW, mate you need to relax. If your average is above current sp then I'd suggest you average down for all the reasons mentioned in my previous posts. Up to you, it's your money. As most know I'm incredibly f@cked off with the way mgt paid for the recent acquisition. But this hasn't stopped me from buying a couple of hundred k more shares. If one of my other AIM stocks wasn't such a basket case I'd be looking to buy another 500k or so here. The sp disconnect is ridiculous, but with each report the market will see the numbers in black and white and trust will be built. Hopefully they're looking at some form of debt instrument as we type so they don't do another massive raise to fund another acquisition. Really can't see them doing this before we hit 20p so for now things can only go up. I know you got spiked before they did the raise, which sucks. But you can lower your average if you choose to do so.
DOPW, the company is worth +20p all day on current knowns and current market multiples. The reason we're not at this level is because 360m shares were printed recently at 11p. Look at the 12 month chart. The trajectory will remain like this (modest incline), unless they do things to increase the gradient. This would include drilling a lot more wells. Or buying back 50-100m shares. Obviously poo and gas is helping, but this shouldn't be relied on by mgt. When the f/o lands it will give us a spike to a new higher base. The sp will jump around a bit but I'd expect it to add a couple of pennies to our base when it settles, and the slow rise will then continue. The rise will then steepen as we approach and begin f/o drilling, which always occurs. In other words you're going to have to be patient. And if you have spare cash it's one of the biggest no-brainers I've ever seen. Just f'ing annoying they printed so many shares. Anyway, enough from me. I have to get back to work.
GGG,
I thought previously you said it would take about 40m shares to churn the placing which we have surpassed - or did I read you incorrectly. In my opinion we have already churned through the placing shares substantially and what we are seeing is the market currently valuing i3e towards the bottom end of the valuation chain at about 2 x CF. This will change over time - premium performance = premium rating.
In my opinion the f/o is not the sole key to get past 15p (although its significant) - there are other drivers one of them being gas prices - when the current hedges expire end of October - its worth over 2p per share in FCF - add in the work overs, Wapiti wells , a planned farm out of South Simonette etc - provided current oil/gas prices remain supportive - I see the SP climbing above 15p within the next few months , certainly before the end of November with or without a FO.
The FO no one knows for sure - I believe it is still on but could possibly be delayed until after COP26 - this appear to be what Barnyards mate is alluding to !
G_G_G
So sp of 20p will all depend on the report on Monday. I was under the impression that flow rates where going to be relessed Monday, plus other info to help drive up sp?
Tell you what, if gas prices continue in this manner, which they should for the next 12 months, then we're going to be receiving a number of very big dividends next year. And can expect very strong value growth once the placing shares are rinsed. Expecting the results and forward guidance to give us a nice boost past 13p. However we'll still have the remaining issue of the placing shares being flipped. I think we have quite a while to go on current volumes. The f/o is the key to getting us past 15p and on our way to a more respectable 20p. Of course a t/o offer would be even better. I'd rather take a guaranteed 20-25p now than having to wait another 12 months. With forecast poo and gas they must be on a few radars right now. Once the hedges expire the gas side of the business is going to be be throwing off a ton of cash.
...the Evergrande debacle is far from over. Next interest payment due on 23rd which it can't meet. I do feel the situation will be largely localised within China however that's not to say global markets won't react in the short term but wtfdik!
TSSZ,
I assume you are talking of a 52 week high - are you saying next Monday i3e breaks out above 16.6p - that's nearly 40% from todays level?
Given that the Cenovous Acquisition is post period - what are you expecting to see in the results that will drive a 40% plus gain?
TSSZ are you predicting an SP above 16p next Monday?
On the other Reuters topic, some Financial Commentators state the China Property issue "could" begin a Global property price reduction.
I3E should go up today big, yesterday was a buying opportunity, coz of Evergrande financial situation the whole global market was down.
However the article below is saying that the problem has been resolved, so the whole global market should bounce back up today
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt-chairman-idUSL1N2QN05B
With I3E every sp drop, is a buying opportunity next Monday we will see a new high SP