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I just think if the World produces 100mbopd now. In 2035 with Exploration bans and the saving on Capex / it is not beyond realms of possibility to go 70mbopd / preserve easy access Reservoirs and use clean energy to fill the gap. Wind farms don’t turn on a calm day and solar is not 100% effective (I will research more). I’m also looking into Batteries and wondering if they will dump them down disused Oil Well holes ? And they send the Wind Turbine Blades to landfill after 20years. You start to wonder how Green anything is ? However we must burn less Oil. For certain. At the moment we simply cannot !! What does that tell you ?
One thought I had was to use more oil with Carbon Capture to generate electricity, For various reasons - I dont think it will go this way.
It does reminds me of an something - I3E were touting their green credentials with the Weyburn carbon capture facility they had aquired through Gain. A number of us were asking what happened to this and whether we lost it with the Harvard sale. I guess the answer to that was yes since it was not mentioned in the RNS - money talks ! Perhaps this was part of the reason the Harvard Assets attracted such a good price.
Good You Tube Post Tony. All Cars go electric. Q I ask myself is how are we going to produce the electric ? The electric demand will literally go through the roof. The Security and Reliability under all Weather conditions and availability of Electricity is not something we can underestimate. France answer is Nuclear. You know my opinion re the need to Diversify Energy source is more to do with World Reserves lower than Reported rather than the Green Agenda. The former is driving the Green Agenda. We have 30 years and then Oil would struggle to meet demand / at the same time as heating up the Planet - which it is.
Tony my friend. I am untrusting of others by nature. Re Mirabauds Valuation / More Qualified as it may be / I haven’t met one Broker that published what their accuracy Rate is v Actual Outcome. I am being Conservative because that’s my bottom line.
Why are you being so conservative. I've taken Mirabauds calculation and plugged in 14,000 boed. Its spits out a valuation of $108m everthing else being equal. This still undervalues I3E in my opinion as the recent rise in the POO has not been fully reflected in the calculation.
That said - I'm not 100% sure of Mirabauds model after have looked at I3E's last RNS.
What is more. Does anyone on here doubt the Integrity of the BOD’s intension and ability re acreage to surpass and hold 14000 boepd ? If this is to be / and based on the Noel Well contribution of £10m to the MCap / then even if we attribute £5m per 500 boepd New Well then this could see MCap base level establish New Level at Circa £90-£100m. Obvs we have to Factor in maintaining Reserve Life Index wand various / which is why I go £5m per 500.
Yes Tony. Sorry I thought you meant Capex involved in New Wells attached to growth. My basic Calculation of 1 Well at 500 bopd x conservative 6 years generates £22m in cash to 1 Shareholder. Add one year of production to cover Installation and then maintenance Capex.
If you take what happened to the SP / The Market added £10m of Value attributed to it ? I believe the SP is behaving as such as only attributing the Noel Well - So plenty of Upside in both that Well / Future Wells and the sum of all the parts. IMO.
Incidentally. If you had just 1 x 500 bopd Well in the Back Garden ? and sold all as Oil at Spot Price what would you hope to gain in Returns ? Depends on Reserve Life / so let’s say a short 6 years. Minus Royalties. (and of course Noel is boepd and not bopd - but you get the picture).
Re the Capex Tony / Really they only spend it if it adds Value (and in the Short to Medium Term) and thus forecast to reduce the B/E figure you suggest. (We would hope of course). This is like a Bank now. If you are a SH / you are going to get Paid out. The Noel Well was impressive IMO and step by step they will let the Value grow. Steady away.
I have alluded to my thoughts previously but no one took the bait and challenged me. I dont want to say just yet and lead you to a conclusion - I wanted to hear your thoughts.
First off and I may be showing my ignorance - what is B/E ?
Secondly - I was looking for a much simpler response. Dividends have been the subject of much discussion the last day or so We have been guided by Mirabaud what they are likely to be in based on FCF. We have not been given FCF by I3E but they did provide Forecast Operational Income for 2021. By comparing the two - what do you see?
Tony, I was intending to take a closer look this weekend. At first glance I thought our b/e must be a little higher than what Mirabaud was working from, but not by very much. What were your thoughts?
If so, and there's some weakness in poo and it was to drop back to $50 it could make a reasonable difference to divi payments if our b/e is $1-2 higher than Mirabaud were reporting etc. Having said this, for people intending to be holding in 1 year, I'm expecting production to be closer to 15,000, so divi pay-outs from a much larger base, and on poo anything above $55 is likely to pay out quite spectacularly from this level when one takes into account 30% fcf and little to no taxes on any revenue for years to come. I think they can grow production on our acreage without so much as raising a sweat and given they can bring on wells so quickly I'd be encouraging the bod to be doing this rather than looking for more acquisitions at the moment. There will undoubtedly be weakness in the poo in the next year or so, which is when they could have another crack at distressed assets. Given they will have grown production by 50%, and will have a f/o done and hopefully proven 25m+ recoverable barrels to i3e, they could be raising money from an mcap of +£150m so a lot easier for sp accretive acquisitions. It's just matter of whether the bod wish to have a breather, consolidate, then go again. It's the best growth strategy from my pov, but perhaps there's another Gain out there (doubt it though). Woudl welcome your thoughts on Mirabaud v recent RNS. HTH GLA