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I think most of i3e's is classified as Tier 2. If you look at the Tamarack Presentation - production is from 70 to 280 bopd. I think I recall Majid once stating figures of 100-300 per well. I thinks its pretty variable depending upon exact location. Ive assumed 200 which I think may be a tad high but I will use until we get better guidance.
On the cost per well - you need to make sure you use the figure for "all tied in" i.e. including the pipe work and connection to the network. Again I recall Majid using the figure of $1.4 m "all tied in" - but I think there is confusion between CAD and S.
Tamarack’s Clearwater Assets 400+ identified locations in the Greater Nipisi area and 100+ identified locations in the Jarvie area
Greater Nipisi • 103,110 gross (102,710 net) acres of Clearwater lands • >380 identified drilling locations(1) for development • Significant amount of land prospective for exploration • Current production of >4,000 boe/d(2) and estimated 2021 exit of 5,000 boe/d (3) • Estimated 2021 field operating netback(4) of $44.61 per boe • 16 wells drilled since acquiring its initial position in December 2020 • Average per well capital cost of $1.06 million • 15-24 well is outperforming tier 1 type curve, peak IP30 of 285 bbl/d • 14-26 well (Woodcote Petroleum Acq.) producing ~240 bbl/d (30 days of production) with peaks >300bbl/d • 5-13 West Marten (Tetris) well outperforming tier 3 type curve, peak IP30 of 118bbl/d • Waterflood pilot planned for Q4 2021 Greater Jarvie • 51,200 gross (31,233 net) acres of Clearwater lands • 110 identified drilling locations(1) for development • Significant amount of land prospective for exploration • 21 wells drilled by third party operators on offsetting lands since the start of 2020 • Median peak oil rate of ~115 bbl/d • This drilling activity continues to derisk and delineate the greater Jarvie trend
• Other companies have initiated EOR pilot projects (both waterflood and polymer floods) in the Clearwater formation • Tamarack’s Clearwater assets have the key attributes required for successful EOR projects and management has extensive experience managing waterfloods • Tamarack has identified the focus area for its initial waterflood pilot which will commence in Q4 2021
I think it's US$1m per well fellas. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Also, does anyone know the average well production rate in Clearwater. If it's 400 then 25 wells for $1m can deliver up to 10,000bopd. Obviously some will fail, or will be uneconomical, but then again some will out-perform expectations. Would be interesting to know if someone has this sort of information along with well success rate.
Agreed Tony. Only the drill will convert NPV into Mcap. Having said this, as Maestro has pointed out, one avenue to adding value to the company is completely in our control - Clearwater. We have cash. And we have the ability to quickly execute. It's fast success, or fast fail. But given the low cost of testing the acreage it's utter madness to not have at least 10 drills planned for the remainder of the year. Whether these guys think that's worth telling their shareholders is something else.
Being cynical of the bod, which I still am as they've still not fully earned my trust, one could argue they're suppressing the share price to take it private on the cheap. It's sad that my mind is always wondering 'what are they up to', when I should know what is happening in a company where I own part of it. The reason people don't trust them is they haven't done much to build trust. Lots of promises but not a lot of substance. Hopefully the Q1 update will put these trust issues to bed. I'm looking for a comprehensive update, and not one that's light on detail and designed to stop a PI revolt (like recent updates). Divi, production and financial update, forward guidance, drilling plans for 2021, and an update on Serenity. All of these are basic expectations of a company that has had plenty of time to get on top of the acquisitions. The divi is 3 months overdue. And forward guidance is a simple expectation of any listed company. F/o has been going on for years so can't see why that cannot be part of it as well. No excuses for these guys anymore. Time for them to put their big boy pants on, step out of the shadows they're hiding in, and start acting like a transparent, professional outfit. Looking forward to next week given it's the last week of April. GLA
This should be added at bottom of @metalmonkey post
@Metalmonkey ... and that's a worst case scenario of only 1.5% recovery of all the OOIP... literally only 20 million barrels of the 1300 million barrels on 52 sections produced. Now think of what happens if some things go right.
You are largely correct with Serenity requiring upfront funding whereas Clearwater can be brought on stream incrementally i.e. 1 well at a time or $1.4m at a time which allows a portion if not all to be funded through CF depending on how fast they drill.
To add 5,000 bopd at clearwater potentially costs 25 wells x $1.4 m = $35m So its no cheap either and will take time to bring on line.
@dr_airtime Following up on my post yesterday with the Headwater Presentation Clearwater land map on page 10, if you flip between Headwater Page 10 and Tamarack page 10 linked below, it appears i3’s lands are just north of Tamarack’s undrilled northernmost land in orange, right under where it says ‘Nipisi’. Interesting that Headwater shows half of i3’s lands in the Clearwater pool while it kind of looks like Tamarack has them all outside the pool they outline on their slide 10
Serenity requires major funding to prove up and produce this is why F/O best option, whereas clearwater is low cost, 5 wells costing $5m can add significant fcf to the company hence why i3e undervalued.
The NPV10 calculations demonstrate some potential but i'm not sure how much they mean by themselves. You only have to look at our North Sea Assets - they have a NPV of nearly GBP 2B in the high case yet you see where the current market valuation sits. This seems to be true in general of NPV valuations of O&G assets that always seem to sit way above current market valuations.
We need concrete drilling plans before you see the market starting to recognize any of this value.
Interesting analysis. The NPV for Clearwater alone @$60 CAD WCS is double our current Mcap. They really need to start sinking some wells. One or two successes and we'll double from current Mcap. Really hope they're going to give some clear forward guidance on what to expect. They've kept investors in the dark for far too long now. In the meantime I just sank another 183k into the ISA. Now have 3m across two ISAs. Wife better not leave me :)
WHI View: We estimate that annualised the quarterly dividend amounts to 0.66p, which provides a yield of 6.1%, based on yesterday’s closing price.
All in, we see i3 Energy as one of the best poised junior oil & gas companies on AIM to capture the tremendous opportunities presented by the oil & gas sector over the years ahead. i3 Energy has long-been both a value and a growth opportunity; it now also represents a dividend paying opportunity. We reiterate our fair value estimate of 24.3p, of which 14.4p is premised exclusively on the company’s Canadian operations (net of balance sheet adjustments), with the remainder reflecting the risked potential of the company’s UK North Sea assets.
Sorry - cut and past error. Previous write-up was for Jesrsey Oil & Gas. Following is for i3e:
"All in, we see i3 Energy as one of the best poised junior oil & gas companies on AIM to capture the tremendous opportunities presented by the oil & gas sector over the years ahead. i3 Energy has long-been both a value and a growth opportunity; it now also represents a dividend paying opportunity. We reiterate our fair value estimate of 24.3p, of which 14.4p is premised exclusively on the company’s Canadian operations (net of balance sheet adjustments), with the remainder reflecting the risked potential of the company’s UK North Sea assets."
Positive Outlook: For the current year, we continue to have a very positive outlook for small-cap oil & gas companies. Amongst the many oil & gas companies with compelling growth strategies and significant value-price disconnects, we believe that i3 Energy will be one of the front-runners of strong performers.