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Yeah thinking my ISA allowance to be invested now…been holding back….could claw back my losses if gets back to 15p 🤞
A good day and very well deserved.
Blockbuster growth news much anticipated.
Buy, hold, reinvest for me.
Wow something going on here me thinks,I was expecting the normal retrace at end of day not up by 6%, got to be news next week surely....
Although adding @ 8.98p (reducing average) I could have been more alert to yesterday's news: very few AIM companies, if any, are able to eliminate $25m debt in one swallow. Perhaps this steady SP improvement could run for a few days yet.
Great momentum so far…long May it continue. Onwards and upwards…
A little nosey birdy found out that their new Canadian lender is National Bank. For those that don't know, National Bank are a leading Canadian business lender that publish great company analysis. i3 couldn't have gotten a better Canadian bank to partner with. They are integral to the Western Canadian oil industry. Great job management on this effort!
Good analysis Tony on the per barrel income and netback on their royalty barrels. What was very interesting to me during yesterday's Proactive interview was Majid talking about the potential future income from their Simonette Montney lands which they kept. There is huge interest in the Montney (its becoming known as a word class basin) and several 100% Montney producers working there now running rigs year round. Only a matter of time that i3' 35 Simonette royalty barrels are 350 boe/d or even 3500 boe/d. The Montney metrics are far better than Central Alberta however using $25 -20/boe that you calculated is a great baseline:
@ 350 boe/d = 127,750 boe / year x $30 = $3.8M USD
@ 3500 boe/d = 1,277,500 boe / year x $30 = $38.3M USD
Recall that the company believes that their Simonette could produce 30k+ boe/d if fully developed.
So potentially huge future income with little company drilling risk from their Simonette royalty still.
SP starting to do an upward run. Will we break 13p with the development plans for this year...? Great to think we're about to get some more good news in the next couple of weeks. Q1 results should be solid as well. Nice. end to the week. GLA
Imma use "fatally floored" from now on.
Nice ;-)
One things for certain - we wont get an announcement tomorrow unless i've forgotten what day it is ?
You have a good memory Stas. I think Tony was the one arguing the most about the sp not going below the raise price back then. I waited and bought a lot in the 4's. Should have bought more. Also bought more after the second great dilution event in the 9's and 10's. Also argued with certain posters the sp would be depressed for up to a year and would go below the placing price.
Agree that we're well set up for growth at the moment. I'm not in the same place as some on here about buying distressed gas assets. Although I think there will be a lot floating around, I don't believe gas prices will recover for some time. The world is awash with it, and a lot of countries are using less as part of their energy mix.
I am however confident that oil will average above $70 for the next year or two. OPEC is seeing to this, and so long as Ukraine keeps fighting Russia they will continue to target energy infrastructure. And then there's Iran and sanctions. Plus the US is starting to deplete its reserves. So I'd start a decent oil drilling campaign but keep some cash in reserve. Maybe invest USD$50m over the next 12 months. Some will be paid for out of cash we're generating, and the remainder should be topped up from debt. A poster commented on companies with dominant liquids ratios being valued higher so this should yield value and support income. As I've stated previously we'll also prove up more acreage / reserves, which will make us more valuable to investors and would be predators.
If I'm wrong and gas prices improve to average CAD$3 or more then a dividend hike would also be good to see. I agree the Nth Sea is a waste of time and money now. It's also very risky from an execution standpoint, let alone adding h@lfwit government risk. They should write it off if needs be. Ideally they will get a bit of cash though. Only reason I'd progress is if we get a bigger player on-board who run the show e.g. Serica.
Either way all looking good right now. PTAL back on sale currently so grabbed another 25k over there this morning. If my 750k shares in DELT pay off in the coming months then I'll be buying significantly more here and in PTAL (providing prices are near these levels). Not long until things kick off over there so will find out soon enough. GLA
Of course tomorrow we get the acquisition announcement then you’ll have to do all your calculations again. ;~)
"flawed" before someone points out I cannot spell, let alone do calculations !
There have been some calculations that Imo are fatally floored - i.e. they doesn’t take into account that the royalty barrels are revenues that don’t have associated opex, capex and other costs. Here’s my calculation – a bit rough - comments welcome:
$3.6m (income per year on royalty bbls) / (388 boepd x 365 days) = $25.42 / boe
(i.e. each royalty barrels earns $25.42 / boe)
Doing a similar calculation for i3e’s production barrels starting from NOI and deducting costs to come up with an income per boe.
$93m (NOI) – $18m (SG&A) - $3.6m (Royalty boe) - $25m (Capex) - $4m (abandonment) - $5m (hedging loss) = $37.4 (income)
$37.4m / (19,500 boepd x 365) = $5.25 / boe
(i.e. each production barrel earns about $5.25 / boe)
25.42 / 5.25 = 4.84
(i.e. each royalty barrel earns 4.84 x more income than each production barrel)
Valuation of Royalty Barrels = $64k per flowing boe
£147m (market cap) x 1.25 = $183.7m / 19500 boepd = $9.4k per flowing boe (valuation of i3e’s production barrels)
$64k/$9.4k = 6.81
6.81/4.84 = 1.41 (i.e. the royalty barrels attract a premium of about 1.41x production barrels on an income basis)
Or put another way i3e’s sp should be trading at a minimum 1.41 x 12.3p = 17.3p
I think there is upside to this valuation as the barrels are from Central Albert which are the most gas weighted bbls in i3e’s portfolio with Clearwater and the Montney potentially being much more valuable on a boe basis.
Agree that Majid is playing a long game.
Looking forward to an imminent major drill programme announcement for the Montney with a near term view to adding 10,000 oil rich boepd.
Stas, I got some at 3.64p. Which I believe was almost the lowest purchase on the worst day. Of course, it was only a £1.5k top up but still feels good to hit a low low. Was a big purchaser below 5p after initial Toscana deal. Having gone through the troubles of Glenwick and Liberty drills, it was a no brainer at the time.
Well past the point of "light at the end of the tunnel" but also feel the company is setting itself up to be a mid-cap producer. Masjid always said deliver the deals and the results and the rest will take care of itself. Possibly frustrating when we're used to pump and dump type companies shouting from the rooftops. Majid is playing it long and I'm very happy with my money sat in i3e.
My lowest purchase was at 4.19p on 30/10/2020, GGG also purchased I think at the same time, indeed I remember arguing with him that I thought 6p was good but he wasn't buying that high at the time, lol. Nothing stopped anyone buying at these lows indeed I can see 6 trades in my i3 spreadsheet all under 5p and all on 6 separate days. I like the Dividend, indeed if I didn't have it I might even go elsewhere, thus I don't see how it stifles growth indeed it attracts investment.
So what if Polus doubled their money - they placed their bet and they won. Your only jealous that you lacked the b@llocks and / or the brains to buy shares at the same price as they did. In fact retail shareholders had the opportunity to buy in lower than polus did as the sp drifted slightly lower after each placing.
In addition - I like the dividend, every other poster on here that i've seen like the dividend also. Your the only one i've seen that doesnt like the dividend. I have two suggestions:
1) Write a cheque to i3e and give back your dividend
or
2) Sell your shares and p1ss off !
"Canadian shareholders are currently not that important - are you going to pander to the 10% or the 90% that stumped up the cash when it mattered ?"
That's some fighting words right thar! Polus already doubled its money, their 235M shares are likely free, and yet they insist on getting a dividend which stifles growth.
And your missing something else which is mentioned in the i3e response. The North American Market was almost dead in terms of institutional support when i3e were looking to get the finance to purchase Canadian assets. Even the UK retail market was pretty lacklustre and have always failed to take up the shares set aside for them in various placings. Without the Uk Institutions , I3e will have almost certainly gone bankrupt. Re-read what i3e said about Institutional Ownership.
As I have said previously, Canadian shareholders are currently not that important - are you going to pander to the 10% or the 90% that stumped up the cash when it mattered ?
We can agree to disagree - but imo your not understanding the response from i3e. I3e were 6 out of 10 in the list you presented in terms of revenue and only have 1/10 the liquidity of its peers - why would they waste money when the stadium is only 1/10 full.
I still disagree with out on your view of the low Canadian coverage being the result of only 10% Canadian share ownership. Still my view that the 10% is the result of next to no Canadian institutional coverage and not the other way round. We shall agree to disagree on this one.
I also messaged IR showing them the extensive and impressive coverage by all of i3' peers and today got the finally response:
"I3 hired Canaccord Genuity as broker in Canada last year and the firm has published research on i3 Energy which is distributed to the institutional market in North America."
Let them keep the price low.
As it stands anyone buying in at this price is getting an ultra safe 10% divi, hardly any chance of it being reduced. In fact more likely to be increased if anything.
Keep the price low for all I care, I bought more yesterday bringing my average down to 17p if more funds become available I will add more.
Of all the shares I own and am under water with, this is the one I am least worried about. In fact my only worry is that the price will move up considerably before I get a chance to buy more.
It would be nice to get back to monthly Dividends too.
GLA
“Nothing really interesting in the report except they state drilling to be Oil Focused - really forrest ! But the interesting bit aquisitions may focus on Gas !”
Yes, no one should expect an oily acquisition with oil at $85. Won’t get bargains in the environment as everyone is making money.
Alberta AECO gas on the other hands is at cyclical lows of around $1 USD. US Permian gas is negative $4. That means these producers need to PAY someone to take the gas from them.
If the gas market in Canada further deteriorates this summer which is very likely could, there might be some very very cheap gas assets on the market or levered take-over targets for i3. Majid & Co will be like vultures I expect now that they have a fortress debt free balance sheet. Excellent position to be in for astute deal makers like i3 management.