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Cenkmen,
Graham’s maths is fine - 750m shares prior to Cenovus (approx from memory - don’t shoot me if I’m 20-30m out). 1.1B after. ie existing shareholdes own approximately 750/1100 i.e. about 2/3 of the new company (1/3 dilution for existing holders)
With regards to quarterly reporting - in the past people refered to a quarterly report as per Canadian a listed Company which is a full 30-40 page report with detail financials ver similar to our interim report. What we have is a brief 1 page update - which if you look back we have got almost every month - some months two updates.
Perhaps a misunderstanding between updates v report.
@ Tony 17 Oct '21
Based on the 26 October rns entitled "Q3 Operational and Financial Update" it appears that I3E are perhaps listening to small fry investors like me and they won't as you say stick 'with AIM reporting requirements'. I can assume there will also be a Q1 Operational and Financial update for 2022 otherwise wouldn't it be just bizarre that there would be a standalone Q3 financial and operational update for 2021.
I have pretty much always declared an opinion of buy when posting (through the drop down menu). So I would hope that people would assume that I hold a position and currently recommend people to buy. I don't think I'm bearish or negative- just because I'm not rampity ramping don't mean I'm negative. I notice you never declare an opinion - your posts are always marked as no opinion. Perhaps I initially brought into a company with 700M shares not 1.1B shares.
You may beg to differ about Serenity but I think you know that the market sometimes over reacts to bad news. I think most people here agree that there is a complete disconnect with the value the market has attributed to I3E currently. Its not unreasonable to assume that if things don't go according to plan for Serenity the share price could at least temporarily drop by 20-40% (or more). I3E were wrong about 20k bpd and 314 mmbbls at Liberator. They may be wrong about Serenity too.
When you say $2M fcf are you talking about over an ntm period? Where did you get that info from? I remember some people were saying that the costs in our clearwater acreage are evidently higher other operators. Is that because we have poorer quality land? Or is it because our veteran Western Canadian portfolio builders aren't actually as good as they were touted to be?
So was "Doctor Jones" wrong when he said "4) internally growing production in Canada from FCF, starting at a base of 10’000 boe/d it doesn’t take much capital to double production". Perhaps he was right but instead of deploying the fcf into easily ramping production into our existing acreage management decided to dilute the company by ~50% (not as Graham Heath errornously claimed doubling our production for a 1/3rd dilution - 700M + 50% = +1B).
https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/oil-surge-gives-private-equity-a-window-to-exit-stranded-canadian-energy-firms
Looks like there are loads of assets in Canada for sale and it appears that FD&A costs haven't overtaken F&D costs yet.
The question is are investors happy with equity financing to raise funds for more acquisitions?
Thanks for the link JoeSoap. That’s a nice video summary of the quarterlies.
https://themarketherald.ca/i3-energy-plc-tsxite-provides-q3-updates-2021-10-26/
Direct link to i3E clip.
Hope you're more moved than Caroline and that it's not a foretaste of the ProActive...
If the link below doesn’t work then go over to the CEO board and click on the newsroom link at 2030 hrs. Majid mentions towards the end of the interview that they are still looking to make acquisitions.
@accesswire/the-power-play-by-the-market-herald-releases-new-interviews
Ahha, so it looks like I3E will be doing quarterly updates. Nice!
It's great to be vindicated.
Cenkman,
RNS are formal communications - it doesn't get any more formal than that. Unless they move to a full Canadian Listing - they will in all likelyhood stick with AIM reporting requirements which mean a full year report & interim report.
What is your interest here - are you shorting i3e ? Your posts are almost universally negative and plus you don.t really add anything constructive / substantive including for the bear case.
With regards to another duster being devastating I dont agree - they've found oil so have significantly de-risked the next drill. Even if it were a duster (which is unlikely) - they are reportedly on a free carry. So a worst case scenario would be to sell off the assets, close the UK operations and move over to Canada. There are significant costs in running a non-revenue generating unit (uk) which can be saved by moving to Canada and increase Company margins on the Canadian revenue. Also as mentioned earlier, there isnt much value in the current SP attributed to Serenity so if it were to disappear - it would have very little medium to long term impact on the SP.
Also your comment on the 100 boed additions does not appear to be informed either:
1) each 100 bopd adds about $2m to free cash flow. Add enough of these wells and that's going to be pretty sexy not withstanding the fact that some of the future wells are likely to produce at significantly higher rates than 100 bopd.
2) One thing that some may not appreciate was that until the Cenovus deal - I3e were quite cash contrained meaning that they did not have sufficient cash to fund a large development program internally - now they do with options to borrow also - so I think you can expect to see a significant acceleration in the development plans going forward.
@ Tony - I meant formal production and financial updates. More frequently than half yearly.
@ bots - "No one well will make us, no one well will break us."
Another duster in the North sea could be devastating. The north sea aside - I think that might be the problem. We when we have updates about 100 boepd wells coming online its just not sexy. A bit boring really.
It’s nice to keep in touch with company progress, but calling for news flow in the hope it’ll boost the shareprice is a bit daft. I3e are slowly adding accretive value by bringing small wells on stream. No one well will make us, no one well will break us. Collectively they are moving the needle and the shareprice is responding; look at the chart. Any significant rise in SP will probably happen out of the blue in conjunction with important corporate activities occurring in the background.
Like the farm out.
Be patient, get wealthy.
Tony I think you meant 2021 but even so that's 11 updates in just over 4 months.
Cenkman:
5th May 2020 -------- Operational & Financial Update
1st June 2020 ------- South Simonette Consolidation
1st June 2020 - ------Final Year results
17th June 2020 -----Operational & Dividend Update
28th June 2020 -----Operational update
30th June 2020 -----Capital Restructuring & Wapiti Acquisition
15th July 2020 ------Operational Update
29th July 2020 ------Operational Update
16th August 2020--- Operational & Financial Update
9th Sept. 2020------- Operational Update
27th Sept. 2020 -----Interim Results
"I3E does not do monthly or even quarterly operational or financial updates. Or did I overlook something?" - Hmmmm ?
What's everyone's opinion? Afaik I3E does not do monthly or even quarterly operational or financial updates. Or did I overlook something? Should they have more frequent updates if they don't already. Or are we gonna wait till March or June 2022 for the next update?