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PTAL is great value if you can take the country risk. Same goes for companies like Gulf Keystone. Personally, I'd rather have the majority of my money locked up here. Next to zero risk across the board as we have little country risk, commodity risk, production risk (hundreds of wells) etc. We also pay a +6% dividend that in all likelihood will be increased. On that note, I'd rather they do another modest monthly dividend increase, say to .165p, then do any kind of buy-backs. And plough the rest of the money into exploration / production. I'd like them to take a look at Minos High in the upcoming drill program as well. We have the drill rig, and we can easily afford to drill ourselves. A strike and we could double from here in an instant. And if it fails, well nothing lost and we still have Serenity. And the best part is we'd still have cash to continue expanding in Canada. Buy-backs in my experience do f'll for the sp. Whereas divi increases for whatever reason seem to attract more investors.
Ultimately, I'd like them to pay a modest amount more in a monthly dividend (monthly being key). And for them to add production and reserves in this bull market. That way even if oil drops back to $80 (unlikely), we'll have added significantly to our production and reserves and in no need of cutting dividends etc. This share is a dead set no-brainer. AIMHO GLA
No worries,
To be clear I wouldn’t say there is no FCF in I3 at all, Just that it isn’t enough for 10% of the company as of today. I rather have a progressively higher dividend.
I think Arrow exploration is the better South America play. Their expansion is really on point, total drill to market within 30-40 days. Roughly 2000 BOE of which 1500 is colombian light oil, (assuming last drill gives 500 BOPD at least) and an Mcap less than 1/10 of Ptal.
And the drill keeps going.
Liquidity wise they get paid directly instead of the long wait times that Ptal has with their pipeline.
Looking at Peru we know the drill with leftist presidents, a lot of barking to begin with then nothing happens. At least that is my take on the political risk of Colombia.
For info My name isdeer is derived from Desire petroleum, who once tried to pass off water as oil to con its small investors while allowing the big boys dump their shares.
Sorry Bunkatron on misspelling
Bunkarton,
My largest holding is here by a long chalk.
Looking at figures from PTAL, and assuming current production rate of 20,000 bopd.
If we take Brent oil at $110, they have a free cash flow of $371m USD with a capex of $110m.
They are planning for 25,000 bopd, let’s imagine that with oil at $120 and no change to capex.
On that note, I think people overestimate I3E FCF Numbers quite a lot.
I don’t see us capable of a 10% share buyback anytime soon. My calculus says the major part of the capital plan announced in december has been used up and the q1 revenues around 66 MUSD in Q1 and I predict 91 MUSD in Q2 (roughly 19500 BOEPD, it has been a lot of rain in the area I heard, using the ratios in the investment deck, 17% oil, 31% NGL and 52% gas)
Put in some loss on hedges and such and there isn’t enough for a magical 10% buyback appearing
And I am crazy bullish about this company
There are three major benefits to go with I3E above PTAL.
1. Serenity drill not priced in at all.
2. No debt to talk off, also no major wait time for liquidity (wasnt ptal paid for oil entering the pipeline late 2020 just recently) watch the fcf and a lot of the capital is locked up.
3, geographical risks. Ptal is one Field in the middle of the peruvian djungle. Recent occupations but also earthquakes are common. Say a food crisis occurs not even connected with oil? They know now that occupying the wells gives benefits, what makes you so sure it won’t happen again.
Put the province of alberta in the other side, I3 have about 1000 wells and facilities, if one goes down it barely shows
I3 is the safe bet for sure
Also reporting my old friend IOG is stirring its stumps once again. Got back in at 25p, and a busy day today has sent it over 30p. Lots to come as they have fixed problems with two wells now flowing gas, and a much larger one Southwark being commissioned for drilling in Q4. No divis in sight but certainly one for the bottom drawer IMHO.
isdeer, appreciate the comment. thanks
Hindhead,
Recent presentation indicates debt free Q3, and board hoping to start quarterly dividends Q4.
If oil prices start rising or not, it’s still pulling in plenty cash, PTAL could be a big winner.
I’ve just bought a few today, GL.
I3E vs PTAL - add to I3E (longterm holding) or open additional position in PTAL? I3E appears financially stronger but a quick gain on PTAL would be pleasant. Any thoughts?