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Funny how you talk about buyout but noone mentions whitecaps recent acquisition only days old, 32000BOEPD for 1,9 Billion CAD. 30% liquids (NGL/condensate)
So I would say our canadian play is ”worth” 3/4ths of that in a buyout perspective at least since we have a better mix.
So roughly 3 times todays value would be the lowest buyout offer to expect.
It is also good for the market that the bigger fish come active to show the true value of things
Thanks to all for your opinions. So eoy we can possibly be looking at a sp price of 70p. Let's cross our fingers. Furthermore, hoping this grows above 130p by mid 2023 and one day become the next Kelt or similar.
I'm invested large with i3, given the dividen and future potential, as many have stated no other o&g has a similar profile.
GLTA.
Well I hope there is no offer. I wouldn’t know where else to look to for an equivalent monthly dividend .
Nice insight Tony and on the same page as you. I've said for a little while now we must look very attractive to a bigger fish given our production and debt levels, not to mention our low cost organic growth potential. I also agree that 40p is probably the value that would be levelled at us in today's market. And yes its twice what I said I'd sell for a year or so ago. So yes I'd be happy to take it right now in the current environment. That's not to say we're not worth more, but we're only worth what the market is willing to pay, which right now is the mid to high 20's. Fwiw I think we'll be in the high 30's when we're drilling Serenity and believe 50-70p as our sp range should we prove up 50-100m recoverable barrels of oil. It's only 5 months before we get results all going to plan. I'm more than happy to wait and see if we turn over a lottery ticket win, especially given the monthly divi being paid. AIMHO GLA
Tony the problem is that the SP is often forced down miraculously in the weeks before a Lowball offer arrives on the table , hopefully in the coming months we will get good updates from Canada operations and a good Drill result in NS which will take SP to decent level before any Take over shenanigans begin ! GL all.
Dartron - the one more point was meant to refer to "take over target"
LOL - how old are you - 11 ?
To be clear - I believe we are worth more that 40p - however, currently and presumably because of the threat of recession - the market is currently valuing us at 25.5p so 40p would be a significant premium as of today.
On valuations - as per Eric Nuttall - Oil Companies have traditionally traded at 6-9x FCF at the top of the cycle. Shubham Garg has target SP's based on 8x. Will we ever get to these multiples again - there's got to be a question mark because of the push towards renewables buts is possible. However, as of today Companies are trading at closer to 2.5x FCF.
I also agree that there's a lot more value to be realized from Serenity but most of that wont come until we get much closer to development / production and even more so with Minos High which is not even an at appraisal stage.
Personally I would be a bit disappointed. I would love I3e to get Serenity over the line and see what our sp would get to. Of course it could go the other way, but in today’s climate I would still be disappointed as I said.
I'm looking to sell here north of £1 based on my belief oil will trade at $140+. Saying that though if i was given 40p on Monday while trading at 25p i would happily accept it, move on and look for the next one.
One more point - is that Management believe we are significantly undervalued. What else could they say to investors at an AGM. Lol.
Interesting discussion guys. You have to remember that Bybrook Capital would have a huge say in any offer. They may be very happy with 40p, as might other participants in the 11p placing. These larger players dont think the same as PI's.
If I3E want a higher share price, they need to give more returns back to investors right now. Not easy being invested with the volatility at present which is more than the dividend and general gloomy market sentiment.
Tony
We also have Serenity and. Minos/liberator potential.
40p ??
Regards
Definitely interesting times, a lot can happen. Which ever way it goes, here is to why we are all here....and that is to make money.
GLTA!
I didn't say at 40p no one would be interested, I said it was too cheap. I wouldn't be interested and my average is now up to 15p. I've been here since GWIK IPO and have seen and bought at over 100p in that time, took a lot of averaging down to just under 12p
52 wk high is 32.7p about 3 weeks ago. 50% uplift would be 49p. I'm hoping we will be in the high 30p's by the time of the Serenity drill in a few months time. Q2 update should help that.
Just my opinion.
I think you have to remember that were heading into a recession according to many market commentators and also I dont think we were in the mid thirties - was about 32p I think.
40p is a premium of about 55% to todays price - your saying no one would be interested ?? I think its about double what GGG once said he would sell up at !
I think 40p is too cheap, we have been in mid 30p's just recently, 50p would be tempting, 60p would have most agreeing to a sell I think.
Hard to say - i3e dont have a consistent schedule for quarterly reports - logically you would think a minimum 2-3 weeks after the quarter end i.e. 3 weeks or more from now. Could be earlier if they have a lot of well results to publish or it could be later if they want to take a big bang approach and include a Serenity update. Its funny, the news flow seems to be slower now that there is more to update than it was 6 -8 months ago when there was less to report.
Anyone following Eric Nuttall on twitter - he has a graph with the estimated FCF yield of about 40 producers for 2023 - this is most of the Companies in the Oil & Gas space. The average yield is about 33% - I have i3e at about 48% i.e. about 45% cheaper than the average Company in 2023.
A related topic - I compared i3e over the last 3 months against Baytex, Surge Energy & Tamarack Valley (randomly chosen) - I3e significantly outperformed these companies.
One final point - on the ADVFN board they were talking about the AGM and apparently one or two people attended. One of the items mentioned (perhaps an informal discussion after the order of business - if you believe it) is that Management believe we are significantly undervalued (i think most of us agree) and that they see themselves as a take over target ( they are currently too small for Institutions to take a meaningful stake). This makes sense and if you were following the ADVFN board you will have seen a rig moving towards the Blake Field (for Repsol). Repsol also have significant assets in Canada.
Does it make sense for Repsol to buy i3e ? - perhaps ?
If they were to offer 40p/share now - that would be pretty tempting to many shareholders right ?
Does anyone have an idea as to when the next Ooperational update would be?
GLTA