Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tony
I notice from your profile you’re in SA. Nice country and I’d be living there tomorrow if it wasn’t for the crime. Having said that I’ve heard the Atlantic coast where you seem to be is not too bad.
Welcome back as a holder GGG!
Tony, I think you've listed two things that imo drive the value difference between us and Pine - mgt and Canada listing. The latter is where I think the majority of value discrepancy lies. A third thing is 'trust', I think PIs have been unpleasantly surprised is some pretty big ways with i3e to the extent that good news is often over-looked. I think an asset sale is a great idea. The issue though is I have a sneaking suspicion it will be used to fund another Nth Sea adventure rather than Canada. Could be wrong. I'm back to 1m shares here at 9p average. Hopefully SHG is going to pay back in the coming weeks and I'll pick up some more. GLA
Pine Cliff will barely spend $10M in capex in 2024. That that 10% decline rate better be real.
And I have a50% chance of being right 🙂🤭
Fair enough. ‘Codswallop’ is a term my Dad used to use along with expressions like ‘Gordon Bennett!!’
A bygone era.
To be fair - you did start this thread with - "that's codswallop tony"
but I will grab a beer and go chill and try not to be condescending !
Genesis posted his 2 cents worth on the ADVFN BB and I responded with my thoughts - I have a 50% chance of being completely wrong.
Tony
Yes. Potentially I think those assets you mention are being looked at including a sale. My gut feeling however is Clearwater may be about to go but I could be wrong. What do you think is/are the non core assets referred to in the last RNS?
You seem a little argumentative at the moment. Try to chill and not be so condescending.
I think you answered your own question in the last paragraph.
Countries are predominately judged on their elected leaders , companies are also to a certain extent.
Here’s an interesting Company to Compare i3e with: Pine Cliff Energy (lots of interesting info on Gas / Gas Outlook in their presentation)
https://boereport.com/2024/03/04/pine-cliff-energy-ltd-announces-2023-annual-results-filing-of-disclosure-documents-year-end-reserves-provides-2024-guidance-dividend-declaration-and-executive-update/
https://assets-global.website-files.com/64dcf83dc7b2e3793ab75d23/65bc0d458b2065bafa856d10_PNE%20Corporate%20Presentation%20Jan%202024%20Final.pdf
Key Take Aways:
Similar production to i3e at around 21,000 boepd, however 80% Gas
Low-cost producer – SG&A less than 50% 0f i3e’s, Opex around 15-20% less
Significantly lower revenues than i3e
Low declines – less than 10% v i3e at around 15%
Debt similar at around CAD 55m
Highly regarded Management
Market cap double that of i3e
Reserves of less than 50% of i3e’s both on a boe basis and NPV10.
March dividend CAD 0.005 = 5.5% running yield
Lower Capex requirement due to business model/low decline rates
Significantly higher (30-40%) long term decommissioning liabilities than i3e
Conclusions
I cannot understand why Pine Cliffs market cap sits at twice that of i3e – the numbers tell me that we should be rated no lower and perhaps at a premium to Pine Cliff. Whilst Pine Cliff have certain advantages such as lower costs (opex, capex & SG&A) – these are more than offset by i3e’s higher revenues, higher reserves and lower ARO’s - not to mention i3e’s higher dividend (which they can afford to pay - just). The only reason I can come up with is that perhaps their Management is rated higher by Investors. They also have their primary listing in Canada – should that make such a big difference??
All in my opinion - DYOR !
About 2 secs and a £30000 loss having invested just prior to div cut . Took me a year to decide to , not long to remove what was left .
Recouped all and more since (He1)
Seems to me that i3 is short on Mkt Cap and hugely long on assets, they own far more that they can ever drill, massive acreage in some of the most prolific areas in Canada, selling some of those assets to become debt free and have a war chest to drill drill drill and increase the oil production massively seems the sensible thing to do. Tbh at a time when asset values are high, this should have been a priority a while back.
M22C - very clever - how long did it take you to come up with that ?
Shouldn't that read
"A year of tragic dumps "
I didn't know you were good at maths 3LittleBirds !
All the wells were drilled nearly a year ago except the 2.5 net wells drilled in Q4 in Central Alberta which would have been in Clearwater but for the access issues. By your reasoning I'm assuming you consider Wapiti, Simonette and Clearwater all non-core and potentially up for sale !
If I3e is selling part of its acreage in Clearwater then the only company which fits the bill is LOGAN
Who wants to increase its acreage in simonette Montney and ITE is surrounding logan own acreage as neighbours.
Check the map on Logan site
https://www.loganenergycorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Logan-Energy-Investor-Presentation_2023-07-13.pdf
Could be but could not be interesting times this month
Athabasca has sold its 70% operated working interest in Placid targeting the Montney, its 30% non‐operated working interest in Saxon and Simonette targeting the Duvernay and other associated non-core Placid Montney assets to a private company for $160 million in cash before closing adjustments. During the first half of 2023, these assets collectively averaged ~3,000 boe/d (~45% Liquids).
One wonders how many acreage is been sold by i3e with one well sold to tamarack.
Ok so basically a year ago.
"In Q1, i3 drilled 3 gross (2.5 net) multilateral horizontal Clearwater wells at Dawson and Marten Creek as part of its ongoing exploration and development portfolio of 144 gross sections (109 net sections, equivalent to 280 km2) of prospective Clearwater lands."
There you go d**b ar$e !
and anyone paying attention will have recalled i3e's intention to drill additional clearwater wells in Q4 but due to access issues they switched to Central Alberta. Probably a doubly good call since the discount on heavy oil is / was around $18 to WTI.
Clearwater is the fairway: it has regions such as Dawson, Cadotte, and Martin Creek in it.
We are specifically speaking about Marten Creek.
Ok. When did we last drill Clearwater smart ar$e?
What are you rabbiting on about - i3e only drilled 11 (8 net wells) last year and 3 (2.5 net) were in Clearwater.
Also from the last RNS:
The total 2023 capital expenditures of approximately USD 30 million (unaudited) served to efficiently delineate and develop its CORE areas of Central Alberta, Wapiti and the CLEARWATER.
That’s codswallop Tony and I say that with the utmost respect.
They have done nothing with Clearwater for ages certainly in terms of drilling/new drilling. That doesn’t mean it’s not valuable.
I reckon it’s going to be sold old chap. Maybe it should.
“Tony, ask yourself why did both parties go through all the effort to transact on i3’ one Clearwater well in Martin Creek.”
Funny enough I did ask that question including why a Company with 680 net sections and over 65,000 boepd of production would buy just one well and also why i3e that’s been busy adding to its acreage in clearwater suddenly be selling in Martens Creak of all places which happens to be amongst the best acreage in Clearwater.
My conclusion was that I3e wouldn’t ordinarily be doing this and this is housekeeping and a one off. sale – i3e have some isolated sections that are surrounded by other competitors land . My guess is that Tamarack have adjacent sections and bought this well to make their operations more contiguous.
Also, these asset transfers are happening all the time – i3e is in the process of transferring 8 wells to Axiom Energy along with Acquiring 1 facility and 2 pipelines from BTG Energy Corp – so quite why Canuck is making a big song and dance about this one well to Tamarack – I’m puzzled.
From i3e’s November corporate presentation:
“Near-Term Focus:
• Accelerate development at Dawson and Cadotte based on initial de-risking activity and success of offsetting operators
• Continue advancing delineation of extensive undeveloped land positions (Marten Creek, Walrus and Seal)”
And from i3e’s website:
“In Marten Creek where access is restricted, i3 has negotiated unfettered use of a large inventory of surface pads and more than 150 km of third-party pipeline infrastructure, which can be utilised to minimise future capital requirements as efforts shift to potential oil development.”
It sounds to me like Clearwater / Martens Creeks is considered "core" - but hey ho - I could be wrong.
Any idea why a big player would buy just one well? Could it be to do their own proper due diligence before committing to more land etc? What are normal practices?