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Glad to see you have bought in and interested in seeing your positives and negatives which broadly I'd agree with. On the negatives there are mitigations such as Borgland Dolhpin and Baker Hughes payment deferrals - a sign of confidence - and the unreported 3m sell which it seems should have generated a TR12 a while back.
I've spent the last hour going back through the newsflow in recent months for i3E and am comfortable with my investment here, whatever the result of the current drill. Projected dates for RNS results are variable and approximate - worth working out your own assumptions on this. Here is what I am working to -
spud - Thurs 7th (later in day) TD - Mon 25th - Wed 27th (18-20days). I've used 18 as the BD team may manage to gain a day given the last 2 drills. dry well result - same as TD oil - TD + 1-4days. Tues 26th - Sunday 1st Dec. I think this will test quicker than Serenity where additional work was carried out during the test period. Also, it is net pay and viscosity that is being tested to secure the RBL.
These are only my dates that I am using for a guide but these would indicate a fairly strong chance of a result being posted next week, which I suspect explains the push up in sp today (as well as BWM buying of course!). GLA.
I’ve been averaging in this week. Happy with my position now. I’m not ramping or deramping but this is how I see it in brief:
Positives Management track record Serenity discovery Possible 4th drill New seismic Liberator success unlocks financing
Negatives Management overconfidence Liberator has to come in Lombard are selling The warrants will limit SP gains
If the current drill is a success we’re in business. If it’s not I’ll double down on the drop and hope Serenity gives enough downside protection to cover my backside.
I think Lombard will be out by Christmas, hopefully sooner, so that’s one headwind gone. Then a concern is that the warrants might slow progress in the fifties. I’m also concerned about a 50% recovery rate figure given by the BOD, that looks optimistic to me.
On the upside if this Liberator drill is success, and with Serenity now a discovery, I think there is obvious potential for a significant rerate.
Pleased to be able to take a position at placing prices with Serenity in the bag.
LONDON (Reuters) - Bids for North Sea oil and gas firm Siccar Point, backed by private equity groups Blackstone and Blue Water Energy, came in at between $1.2 billion and just under $2 billion, according to three industry sources.
Bidders in the first round, which ended on Nov. 7, include EIG-backed Chrysaor, private equity fund HitecVision, North Sea-focused oil and gas group RockRose and Norwegian oil major Equinor, the sources said.
...values reserves at about $3.5 per barrel. Any offer for i3e would surely need to be north of £250m....;o)))
Hot rig, 3rd hole drilled, the dirt guys have the measure of this oil patch imho, mud logs must be showing something interesting, don’t think we will have to wait past next week personally. Might be wrong
The leaks from the rig on Serenity led to a rise from 18p to 27p in the days before the result RNS caused the spike at 56p. The difference this time is that we have struck Serenity (which won't go away) and have another drill 'in hand' in the unlikely event A2 surprises us. I don't want to tempt fate, but I'm glad I got in when I did.
Don’t worry, the way i3e leaks , we will know a couple of days before any rns about success or failure. If sp rises early next week we are on a winner. Any major drip drip drip selling like before previous bad news means a bad rns .
@Sankeys A key aspect of this is that the close proximity of Serenity to Liberator. It means that any 2020 drilling programme can be combined, as it was this year, such that appraising Serenity (which if successful will unlock substantial more value in the asset), comes with limited additional cost.
The June 2019 Proactive presentation states that the Serenity drill was to cost $13m. Even on a like for like basis, which I would think could be better, given they should be drilling twice and know far more about their subject there, we are talking 'just' circa $26m to appraise Serenity to a point that they would know what they have for an asset.
If I3E are indeed successful at Liberator, then they should/would have far better scope to achieve additional funding, and I do include the option of returning to the markets, be it in a fairly limited capacity, because it should come with no fear in my view.
Success at Liberator makes that c.$26m figure of no serious concern, such that other than a strategic desire to de-risk their assets, I3E would not need to entertain any low ball offers for a farm in to Serenity. So even though Serenity is at a fairly early stage, it should need a very good offer (see Majid Shafiq comments 29th Oct interview) for a new partner to enter the game there.
The words being used by I3E in that same 29th October interview, were delivered along side the words that they have had no direct contact with RRE. They were also highly likely delivered prior to any tangible discussions being held with any other interested party, because it was simply too early.
Yet the team is already busy looking at appraisal targets and a plan for drilling in 2020. They are able to do this simply because the funding needed to drill, is so achievable. What other junior oil play has 2 such sizeable assets within 10km of each other and an FPSO sitting on their doorstep?
The first drill at Liberator was a disappointment but that should not be allowed to undermine the strength of the deals that I3E have achieved, sometimes under a great deal of pressure, in order to give themselves not only their chance at Liberator in 2020, but also a 4th unexpected drill, which itself comes with a number of strategic advantages.
That sort of ability is very attractive in terms of investment and if they can do all that prior to finding oil, then what can they achieve if they have 2 fields, and one proven to produce at up to 20,000 bopd?
A2 starts the process and has to be brought home, but it also acts a trigger to much bigger prizes, which will not be reflected in the value of the company overnight, but given enough time and patience, should be well worth sticking around for.