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Agree Wonderer, but unfortunately these basic facts elude people for some reason, or they refuse to register it in their memory banks. Why Serenity is even being tainted with this fictional tar brush is ridiculous, as said, it's independent from liberator.
What is embarassing is your lack of research. L2 was a pilot well to ascertain the trajectory for LP02 sidetrack which would have been the producer.
L2 had an internal CoS where-as A3 has been given a 70% independently by AG Tracs.
The Serenity prospect is totally independent of Liberator results and geology. There is no doubt that there is risk of both wells coming up dry but not without recognising that they could still potentially provide a transformational result if they strike.
Serenity is up dip of The Tain Field and has much thicker sands and potentially a much larger resource than Tain.
A3 again is up dip and the sands are much thicker so we can have a reasonable expectation that they have a decent chance of striking oil given the independent CoS.
2 more rolls of the dice for 2 more potentially transformational results. At current mcap I know where I'm placing my bet
The CoS figures you have mentioned by WHI are a combination of internal CoS for wells and phase 1& 2 developments.
Gets very confusing when you have so many different drills and phase developments. The main CoS to remember for now is A3 has 70% CoS which has been independently provided by AG Tracs who completed the CPR and the 90% for L2 & 72% CoS for Serenity is an internal estimate by the BoD.
What will they exactly “fund” now LPt-2 and as you say A3 coming dry? There will be nothing to fund. The senior facility is based on a production model which will have drastically failed, hence there is nothing to fund.
L2 was originally a production well until a few months back. How embarrassing that i3 thought it was a producer at exactly the same location and turned out to be a duster.
The whole modelling of i3 has been demonstrated as poor which jeopardised A3 and S1. No chance of success previously given is anywhere near the mark now the model has failed.
The pathway between Phase 1 & 2 can now be considered as non existent. The 33ft pathway was based on LPt-2 having an oil column of 70ft and it came in with nothing.
There is no way they will get funding to drill any further wells after this programme of all show up dry, which is highly likely. Only option is discount placing to keep the board drawing a salary
The COS figures are unclear to me.
Lpt gCOS 84%
A3 gCOS 60%
S1 gCOS 54%
A3 COS 70%
S1 COS 70%
I’m unsure as to whether the CPR is geological, commercial or combined COS?
To my mind the failure of a well that has been given an 84% COS raises concerns around the interpretation and processing of data.
Another issue for me is that if A3 now fails dies that end the funding arrangements?
It doesn't say Lpt, it says Liberator Phase 1 gCOS 84:
Will try to find the link for this note
Do you have a link for the note?
Strange they put a COS on Lpt back in Jan when at that point there was no plan for a pilot hole.
The CPR states COS of 70% for liberator phase 2 east.
Note also a portion of Liberator AGR’s “Phase II East” is now being brought into Phase I.
From I3E's 2019/01/16: Corporate Update:
'With award of Block 13/23c (Phase II) to i3 in May 2018, Phase I development enlarged with expected third well to recover approximately 7 MMbbls of AGR’s “Phase II East” 2C contingent resources.'
"Does missing the edge of the channel in the narrowest section of the field affect the chances of an appraisal well that’s approximately 1km from an entirely section of that channel edge?"
Lpt is drilled bang on in the middle of the thickest upper captain sands resevoir which was not there
Will pm you pics of Lpt location as well
page 45 of AGR report dated November 2017. Extract below.
In order to navigate the wells and maximise stand-off from the OWC, geo-steering will be required within the 8-1/2” reservoir hole section where ROP will need to be secondary in order to meet this well objective. The possibility of drilling a pilot well was considered by i3 and their 3rd party advisors early in the drilling planning phase. Together with Petrofac, i3’s Well Management contractor, and Baker Hughes, i3’s Oilfield Services supplier, i3 concluded that including AziTrak and ViziTrak in the LWD suite will negate the need for a pilot well. In AGR’s view a pilot hole to fully optimise the well trajectory should still be considered in the well execution phase as formational top uncertainties become realised. Contingency planning should be in-place in order to mitigate this well risk
Thank you. Family day today but will look at it as and when I can.
Will pm you the entire WHI note in a min on twitter
Does a possible adjustment to the COS really prevent the A3 drill from going ahead?
Is it worth questioning that until the company has had chance to review its initial findings on L2?
Does missing the edge of the channel in the narrowest section of the field affect the chances of an appraisal well that’s approximately 1km from an entirely section of that channel edge?
Too many assumptions and scaremongering going on right now with too little fact.
@Alexios i would welcome seeing the detail in that WH Ireland note because their figures do not align with the phase 2 CPR, which is king when it comes to Liberator and has been employed by various parties of late to beat the company up with. Those bearish on the company can’t have it both ways.
Liberator East is declared as contingent resources development unknown. The COS stated in the CPR is 70%. There is no definition between gCOS or cCOS. Fact. That supersedes a broker note be they house broker or not, because as seasoned investors as yourself clearly understand, such institutions adjust data as they see fit and make errors hand over fist.
The same CPR has Liberator West as COSg of 56.3% and that contains prospective resources only. So how on earth would A3 in Liberator East be just 60%.
One as yet unmeasured mistake on the pilot well and suddenly all known facts are being questioned and changed. I3E needs to find some stability so this nonsense can stop.
How long does it take to review the data??? Months rather than weeks IMO
S1 seismics are done using the same parameters as it was done for Lpt pilot so it doesn't make any difference whether they drill A3 or S1 first...
Both, A3 and S1 permits are still pending with S1 permits sent on 9-10Sep and A3 permits sent on 29-30Aug so A3 permits will come in first.
I don't believe so, as it's targeted to be in the sweet-spot of the field more centralised.
Risk on A3 will now have increased. I think they are going to drill S1 first , so they have the time to review all the data from last week.
Figures taken from WHI Ireland note 8Jan2019 page 8
Lpt gCOS 84%
A3 gCOS 60%
S1 gCOS 54%
gCOS - Geological Chance of Success
cCOS - Commercial Chance of Success
for many IN here, fairly deep under, had hopes on a mini bounce so averaged down only to sink further....my gut says hold....might be for awhile....my head says cut and run first thing Monday irrespective........not much help around at the moment....if she drops further during the week , which many on the sidelines are waiting for...definately a mini bounce....I banked on a bigger bounce....seems that aint going to happen reading between the lines here.....in my opinion of course...then again I nailed that foodie JW jumped out of.
What about the COS for LPt-02?
I’m not properly researched here as yet I’m afraid. Still playing catch-up.
I3 Energy (I3E) had a troubled week, providing a useful reminder that nothing is ever risk-free in the oil business. The expected sands were not present at the location of the pilot well and the share price halved. There are two further wells coming up, one appraisal and one exploration, both with around a 70% chance of success, so continuing volatility is ensured.
I said in the blog three weeks ago that I3E was going to offer serious trading opportunities and, so far, that’s very much the case. (For those enquiring why no chance of success was stated for the LPt-02 well (more correctly the 13/23c-09 well), that is because it was a stratigraphic test well, drilled solely to gain structural information.)
Thank you Alex.
It now depends on how much Lombard decide to sell...and that is anybody’s guess but conversely there has been plenty of appetite by retail. Just over 10 million shares left at last count...if they want out completely then may take a few more days but when they stop normal demand and supply conditions should hopefully resume.
Ahhh yes, I've seen the alleged link to the SP article in question written by a 'die hard' opposer of I3E and it's operations. I seriously don't understand the lengths that people will indulge themselves with a means to advance their failing literary careers. Using so called 'whispers' from anonymous links within the company or II's and taken aboard easily by the likes of dis-reputed websites such as SP.
SP, is renowned for dragging reputable companies for a swim through 'muddy waters' for simply their own personal gain of which they state, they have none! They love to create a, 'read between the lines' situation, and infect or misconstrue information and stoke the fires of negativity in a bid to draw attention to themselves. It's sad really, and the only saving grace is that one has to part with cash to view the articles... and there-in lies the ploy!
As soon as SP is ever mentioned, I'll always turn a blind eye to their verbal diarrhoea, unfounded and speculative at best! I choose to do a little due diligence of my own, cost me nothing and there's an abundance of information out there to derive from and make your own assumptions.
GL all, stay tuned to the basic facts and all will be well...with I3E, it can't get any simpler in breaking down their strategy and interpreting mistakes, it's all there in black & white and a li'l colour thrown in. Use the weekend to read through genuine fact based posts and articles and come to your own conclusions.
"discretionary account is an investment account that allows an authorized broker to buy and sell securities without the client's consent for each trade. The client must sign a discretionary disclosure with the broker as documentation of the client's consent"
Discretionary acc means that clients have no word as to what Lombard do with their funds, trading decisions are entirely upto the manager running the discretionary accounts. Obviously the manager could be told off to sell the position if the client decides to take the funds out
Plus there could be other positions in different companies sitting within the same discretionary acc not only i3E