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Well ur in the blue then friend. And that's a good place to be.
So long as they don't raise lower than 3p Swest42 I'll still be in profit ;) ha
Yes I can imagine them raising at 5.
I reiterate, I'm in big.
Do I think 5, no.
Its AIM, cohanas required.
5p makes me sick haha
Could you imagine them raising at that price?
Either way it would hopefully be the last raise until the company is worth far far more.
Part of me feels like just get it over with. If we are going to get shafted on the price and dilution better just let it happen sooner.
The longer it drags on for the more they will need to raise just to pay the directors and keep the lights on . . At least this way the company will be producing sooner.
Once the asset is generating cash they could even buy back shares some point down the line.
It's a classic derisk and sell half scenario in case we get something like 5p. As a new holder, I have cash and other equities for a poor price and buy-in on news of funding. There is the scarcity factor of a brand new low cost mine with increasing macros... you can't buy that easily. As a new holder, I did show a 11% loss but I managed to hack the front end of my account using my browser to remove the profit loss column before I scroll down :-)
why sell before a rerate? Because you think the rise will devastatingly low like 5p and you're about to lose money.
Not my view, but before everyone rushes to say it won't be 5p, I will give you innumerable examples of AIM raise PI disasters.
I reiterate, I'm in and staying, but peeps get spooked, sometime with good reason, and sellers' views should be as respected as buyers, its a good BB and I think you all suitably open minded. GLA
Re yesterday, think its just MM games to generate some liquidity. Fridays are least risk day to dick the SP about.
I believe the traders will be more inclined to wait for news. The SP will likely wind higher when news breaks as opposed to sell on news outcome. Why do I think this way. The outcome is not binary news story, many elements make the financial picture, likely take time for the market to digest the numbers. Then you have the final move from explorer to producer. Forward forecasts will all of a sudden become real etc etc providing an overall uplift in SP over weeks/months ahead
The cornerstone takes less risk than the last ii's who bought at 7.5p. Therefore, in theory, the last ii's should have been buying at discount to the cornerstone. When the cornerstone lands the money they know the mine will get built. I'm not saying it will be above 7.5p but I don't see it at 6.5p.
As for the rest of the raise, well, in the grand scheme of things it just won't be that much IMO. Our mcap is currently $165m USD, cornerstone adds $100m USD. How much more another $35m USD? That would be 20% of existing shares so maybe existing holders offered 1 in 5? Assume Glen & Teck would take that placing assuming neither is the cornerstone. Obviously not everyone would take the 1 in 5 - I couldn't even if I wanted to most of it is in the ISA.
So would people wait for 1 in 5 at whatever price the equity is offered to retail or just buy at 6.6/6.7p on Monday? I know which I would do if I had any cash.
I'm of the view that the cornerstone will pay at least the last raise price so at the moment it would be done at premium. All just conjecture but it is interesting on a short term view especially if we drop lower because the shares enter basement bargain territory then.
The price action is very strange, why sell just before a rerate catalyst?! You would expect the price would be inching its way closer to 10p and then a significant jump from there once financing is announced.
Could be traders? Aimless shorting? Though I've not checked for short positions, just musing. .
Alot of shorting going on in many decent companies atm rather than actually targeting the crap ones. Doesn't make sense but then not much in the market is making sense at the moment *cough*GME, AMC ...
Just for context I bought some of these at 5p over 3 years ago. We're 33% above that price right now. Then, we didn't have a Vermelho PEA, we didn't know we could make battery grade nickel from it, Araguaia didn't have a DFS!, we hadn't already raised successfully $25m+$25m and nickel was around $12-14k/t and we didn't have banks queueing for $300m+ of debt and we didn't have a cornerstone for $100m+. The current price is bonkers which is why I think it is artificial. All IMHO
I reconsidered overnight - I think current market price below is below the next placing price - this is obviously just opinion, I don't know. I can't see how the next raise will be significantly (and to institutions 13% discount from 7.5p to 6.5p is significant) lower than the equity price the last ii's got. So on the basis that:
a. the finance price will be higher than current price and will result in an immediate rerate from current price
b. no guidance yet 12/6 and 'aiming for H1' has to suggest we're close even if it doesn't complete this month
c. I just can't see Teck and Glencore, if they don't participate and the cornerstone (Orion?) gets a shedload of shares much chearper than their historical average price which I believe is at or above 10p. And 6.5p would be a sizeable discount to 10p+.
So I would say now there is guaranteed upside on a 1-2 months view and if I'm right we _should_ see at least some traders appearing soon. Decision I'm mulling is do I see more upside here from 6.7p -> 50p over the timescale I think it will happen vs my other stocks which are also waiting for news. That's 7 bags and I think it will happen, maybe more.
Have to say I didn't see us staying below 7.5p for any protracted time. When I spoke to SR he told me 7.5p drew some kind of line in the sand for financing - I just hope they aren't measuring the discount from it.
I'll keep mulling it - we might get a quick bounce back to 7p if this drop is artificial. We go to or below 6.5p I'll start buying I think. GLA
Correct
If it's 6.5p then this is about the lowest we will ever go and a huge buying opportunity with massive long term upside which is why I am genuinely contemplating it. Everything I bought since I sold horizonte is up 20-40% while horizonte has fallen 20-40% since the raise. There comes a tipping point. The assets are the assets. Soon I can afford 30m shares which must end up close to 1% fully diluted....
I think this is the right attitude, even as I eye my princely 4% profit. As long as this mine gets built, we’re fine at any price.
2 camps. I think I'm with you zebbo. Finance unlocks the spoils. If its 6.5, wince, then crack on and don't look back.
Lets try Dj's sniff test.
I heard that Elon Musk was going to take a big interest in Horizonte :)
I also think 6.5p would be slightly screwing the institutions who got in at 7.5p raise. Fine, some were clearly hedgies who then sold for 10% and tanked us further. Thanks - those guys. But some will still be holding. If the cornerstone price is 6.5p if I was them I would like to have known that before I did my 7.5p. Otherwise they could be buying open market right now at 6.6p. All IMHO
Well at least dollar weakness helps if it is. ~1.1bn shares = $100m USD at 6.5p. We stay under 3bn shares (just, including options). Assuming no more is needed - but it shouldn't be if we get the target from banks and the $25m already funded into 'long lead items'.....
wasa, think you know in your heart it will be 6.5.
Never thought i would be here hoping for a delay in finance but i am.
Had a dream i was in JM's office with my trousers and pants around my ankles with a sore backside and he was just doing up his trousers.
I woke up and boy did my backside hurt :(
the red flag is there is no macro to support it and in the face of game changing news the price should be rising (in a strong nickel price environment) immediately before the news and not falling. Falling implies someone knows something. I hope it isn't that the deal is 6.5p. That would be below my estimates.
If it's a delay I can live with it because it explains the price action. If its an entity bringing the price down to benefit from the raise then that stinks and the company shouldn't pander to the game. Source alternate funding. We know there is institutional interest at 7.5p - we proved it in Feb. Do not issue equity at 6.5p.
The sp has been dropping for months but has now got to the stage where the red flags are flying.
Finance days away, world class assets , nickel price rising. Nothing seems to stop this going lower, WHY.
Just how much are they going to give away to get the deal done and its looking like a give away.
how people start shouting foul as soon as the SP drops. Im in for the long haul so not really bothered. As long as the finance gets done we will be laughing in 24mths