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Incidentally I see a much higher sp at that peak maybe 30-50p as this can be a billion dollar mcap company very easily with strong nicjel pricing. 20p is a shorter range target to offload a few to buy a house I see that very possible at end of construction, maybe earlier, especially if Vermelho starts moving. So price targets still unmoved at 20p initially then 30p+ for income/tax sheltered shares. Feels very doable but we will know for sure once the equity piece is in.
Sadly mate I do, a dayjob but on hols at the mo at the caravan with poor reception. 20p area will change that one day, no more dayjob ??. If they start progressing Vermelho any time soon we might just get there sooner than I hoped possible. 20p is £500m mcap with 2.5bn shares which is very doable with two mines of this size with a bit of nickel fever coming in the years ahead.
On the value curve that TDT posted I see the max value somewhere around 2025-2030 when both mines with bost stages fully complette and running and nickel in deficit. If we are still independent by then, which I very much doubt, I will be holding all my SIPP and ISA shares still around 3/4 of my current holdings for income as I see this as a hugely cash generative play. GLA
Going further down the time arc , construction starting beginning of next year , did add the caveat of a second wave delaying the start of build.
Long lead items been ordered and build out of team RNS’s will be forthcoming August - December 2020 obviously.
Upon de-risking as build takes shape , project manager/mine planer who incidentally brought his last two projects in on time and on budget (good sign!) has a whopping contingency , I forget the amount , this could turn into a future saving , someone tell me that amount as it’s late and I’m not going through the project slides again !
Project is low risk easy build , open pit. No complex engineering. Infrastructure in place.
Planned railway line passing through to port to exchange future economics, possible tax structure change to attract inward investment.
Anyway back to the point , when it’s built the project will be easily a 500 million cap , once production starts etc.
Imagine nickel flying it moves off the charts to a billion , stage 2 gets built , vermelho is prob getting built at that point leveraging cash flow with a partner.
Listen chaps the sky’s the limit and if someone try’s a takeover on that kind of situation heading into a nickel head wind and EV demand then you could be looking at billions
Just trying to let you all imagine the possibilities for new investors.
I remember doing this PR on GGP and I valued it at 500 million for 10 million Oz and did a similar rationale job.
OWLO will testify.
Ooooh look it’s worth Half a billion , how we all scratched our head at that been stuck at 1.6p for a year , then boom, yes bit of help from good but the same thing is brewing with nickel.
Get in , park up , watch the ride. Thank us later , of course don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose.
But know this is a great share , a great chat board and great management that have delivered at every step in a very professional manor.
For those that missed this, Please listen to the last minute or so.
** JM says , this news today is very much the catalyst For the rest of the project finance.
Interviewer , what else can we expect next.
JM “Lots of news flow in the second half of the year , Project equity part with an exciting blend of Names in that mix “
“Dealing with some tier 1 groups on the offtakes so that will be some exciting news”
And the thing that really got the Mind going ....
“And also their will be developments around vermelho”
Ok that’s excited me
It’s almost like every interview today he’s approached differently.
Andrew Scott asks about Brazilian Local banks
“Yes we are running a process in parallel with strong interest from local banks and the Brazilian development fund , so yes I think you will see a tranche knitted in from that so yes that’s a development he says casually.
Again he mentions vermelho.
Also in the Reuter’s article is specifically says in advanced discussions with glencore who have 6.1% already here. Don’t forget they love cobalt and are metal off takers as well as Miners.
Orion are obviously in advanced discussions about equity or whatever part they are playing.
The 5 syndicate banks are huge , 325 million credit facility , throw in the Brazilian development bank and other local banks and 70% debt is likely here.
So where the hell do our major shareholder Teck fit in ???!
Prob on the equity bit.
It’s looking like JM has protected shareholders to our higher model situation.
Hedge funds or venture capital might get a sniff on this and see value.
Next few days could be huge , value can be seen now in the project , it’s happening.
Equity can easily be done at a big premium to today’s SP , after all it’s JM’s job to protect shareholder value etc , after all his own options and reward is set at 4.8p for share options.
Finally in my days summary , think about this , with glencore and Teck holding more than 20% of this company which is a nice chunk , do you really think it’s in their interests to dilute much when they are devaluing their own stakes.
As I’ve surmised before , we could see a run up from now to 20P easily valuing HZM at a low ball 250 million area.
Project should start to assertion value over the coming months and certainly culminating in the mandate been signed off and the terms known.
To the end of the year (4 months left) we have 3-5 huge pieces to land , equity , offtakes , Brazilian Banks , the Signed off mandate , vermelho news. All stated , plus whatever part orion plays which could span anything.
Enough news flow to drive this to that level then they raise a small chunk maybe.
It’s all looking after itself , big boy power of Orion , Teck and glencore attractive massive bank