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The way I've looked at it I've made 2.5x from investment. My current stake is worth £1.5m. I've already taken half my original investment off the table and invested in others - £400k. I'm up overall on paper around £1.2m having invested £750k.
I think 2 more 2.5x are possible - once when Araguaia enters production, once when Vermelho enters production or Araguaia 2 gets built. That gets to 50p (ignoring rounding) from 7.5 x 2.5 x 2.5. It may take 5-6 years. But it's £10m. That has to be worth a shot - only to tell my grandkids it happened that way :)
If we get sold earlier and for less I won't complain. I don't have much need for money above around £2m once I have a roof over my head which isn't plastic, again. GLA
All about balancing risk imo but I respect what people decide to do with their money. I firmly believe this will come good and have a good 60% of my portfolio invested here now whereas before that figure was closer to 90%+ ha.
It would only take a black Swan to wipe me out and we are talking about a tad over £100 ISA stock portfolio . . A huge sum for me, pennies compared to many . .
Wasa I admire your conviction and I am extremely grateful for your contributions and pretty balanced but not over the top bullishness in HZM. Please forgive me for saying though I think your abit mad having 99% weighting /the best part of £2m when such an amount would provide a large happy stress free dividend income many would of us could only dream about haha.
Well Hasa-my holding here is entirely in a SIPP,and it can stay there until Divis or sale. 30p Ha ha ha ha ha hahaaaaaaaagh.
Hopefully 30p will be a low bid for the whole company and the decision made for all of us. Bring it on.
Hi wasa - whilst I'm as positive as you / djr, etc., and others on here, I'd never countenance having 'all your eggs in one basket' or near to, no matter how attractive the situation is. If anything goes wrong ('black swans', etc.,) you've no means of avoiding a major disaster which could take yonks to recover from.
Ergo, Some prudent diversification, especially on AIM, is essential, imv - fwiw, I'm well overweight here myself at 22% of my stuff and I watch it like a hawk, accordingly. I do think this prospect is very appealing (hence putting a significant tranche in here more so than I normally would) but you've got to give yourself a fighting chance of 'getting out from under' if it all unexpectedly goes sour on you.
That's my take on that, anyway - wealth by stealth I try to abide by - maybe, it's an age thing? Dunno but I hope it all works out very successfully for all of us, of course - sasa.
You biys crack me up
Alot of talking here for ppl who want to be invested for 5 years
Cannot see your talking here for another 5 years, will do my head in ..:-)
Bet me bottom dollar, if this hit 30p tomorrow, the lot of you will have sold all or most of it anyway
I will be for sure
Yes I wanted to derisk 20% to be 80% Horizonte but I wanted to do it post financing at 15p+. For my purposes I had to move earlier so I derisked 20% at 7.5-9p. Just due to the time constraints of what I need the other 20% for. I'm happy to sit here 80% Horizonte because post financing there is very little risk I won't see a return. I don't know how others see it e.g. Craig whether he has other investments or is happy at 100% HZM. I know Bwana has other investments. All in one share is probably not the best - I'm comfortable with 80% here. Worth the risk for the upside but that's just my opinion could be wrong. GLA
Thanks guys - with Horizonte there might be buying opportunity in the years to come. My feeling is it depends a lot on Vermelho. If the company make steady progress with Vermelho but don't beat their chests about it too much the rerate for Araguaia might be quite gradual. The reason for this is - I've read that a typical valuation for a financed up miner which isn't mining might look like 30-50% of NPV. Now nickel isn't completely flying (yet). 3bn worst case shares x 50% NPV at around current nickel prices we might actually not be far north of 10p post financing.
We could be a lot higher I don't know. It depends of course what price premium the market might apply to the size of Araguaia or phase 2 Araguaia. But I think another big question is Vermelho as I've put in other posts. In previous conversations with Simon Retter he told me the market should value Vermelho differently once financing is achieved on Araguaia. It proves that the company is able to raise finance for a mine and is already financed on one mine hence the risk that the second mine can't be financed presumably has diminished somewhat.
I only say this for the reason that - it is very possible that if Horizonte follows a more linear share price trajectory from Araguaia financing complete to Vermelho built and producing (the time between the two events could be significant number of years) it might be very investable in the interim. So for anyone who got lucky (read: invested smartly!) in faster moving stocks there might well be the opportunity to return and top up even if it is in say 10-20p range. With the eventual 50-70p target etc.
But if the people posting on here are right and financing is the big rerate event then it might not be possible, I don't know. I can't take that chance. I also can't take a chance the offer lands and I'm not invested.
But I'm here till 2025 in either case because there is a HUGE nickel deficit coming in the second half of this decade no matter what. Add to that dollar devaluation and who knows what the price of nickel will be. $30k? Higher? It'll be pure dividend here. GLA
I like your style, think we come from the same school. I think with a bit of patience this and GRL will do well as I said yesterday.
GLA