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Westie then my buys would have cost more today give a man a chance to load up. Every cloud has a lining. I think the news is brewing if the debt is done it is a case of aligning the other pieces and they must be very close on that to promise q3 early q4. It is going to be big bang I think when the news lands. Gla.
I suppose If you’re a Institutional investor and in on the equity raise, then JM helpfully putting dates back let’s you pick up cheap shares with no news coming out for a while. But then that’s me being cynical.
Sadly we are just going to have to wait until HZM tell us what’s what.
Are we talking Quarterly Report update? If so that was 2 months ago.
Look i'm as aware as the next person (God knows i've got enough for me invested here) of the potential here but I do think sometimes the PR is lacking.
"Finance is progressing" Why the fu*k couldn't JM say that with a few enticing sentences on top? Then the sp might start to move in the right direction a bit. Ill say again, the market does not like silence as has been proved by the recent sp performance.
I guess we'd better hope finance will arrive but the beginning of Q4 at the latest.
Finance is progressing.....there you go. Pointless putting out an RNS unless you have something to say. It is either waiting for something to happen that changes the story, or once everything falls into place it comes out as one big cake.
We have the finances to sit and wait and if it means getting a better deal then so be it. Nickel price to improve as industry picks up, EV story improving..... all positive for a deal.
Just on the 'build it' vs 'sell it' debate - I think JM has been really transparent. Words to the effect of Vermelho is a bit too much for us. So writing on the wall for Vermelho - huge asset (the better asset IMO), can be developed either way, looking for a partner / buyer. So we have one asset which will get farmed out to some extent - precise extent TBD. The test for the BOD is can they build the ferro mine. I think they can. They hired a pretty darn experienced mine builder. We believe they are on track with the finance. And capex is very manageable - the indications are the largest piece - the debt, is pretty much sorted.
So there are a few ways it could go but there is _no way_ there won't be huge interest in Vermelho and Horizonte have pretty much put out the 'come and make us an offer' sign. For all we know the offer is being negotiated right now. But what punters (sorry I mean investors :) will have to look back on is that JM was 100% transparent about it and indeed re-iterated it on the recent call. Nobody can say they didn't see that one coming when we get a big partner on board for Vermelho. Best not to be on the sidelines when that monster with the 1.7m or whatever tonnes of contained resource gets going. I just love that graphic profiling the different mines under development in the world where Vermelho is just that huge red blob in size and grade. Kind of 'ours is the biggest and best' type of thing.
It is quite literally the perfect setup (minus Covid). We need nickel to play ball, and a few other things to go our way, and this is an open goal IMO. The EV revolution is underway right now.
EUA haven't mined anything (at the main asset being marketed). But they did get a finance deal lined up as insurance.
I still believe we have a similar play in Horizonte going on. Do the financing, hire a mine builder, get all the groundworks laid, start building a mine perhaps. Then when the bidder comes you hold all the cards - as EUA hold now, as your fallback position is so strong. In the case of Horizonte (see below) this may involve having to build the mine, if nothing else, to achieve best value for Vermelho.
I said many times I don't think Jeremy Martin is here to mine. He is here to generate value for himself and shareholders and he does that by realising the best value we can for our assets at the best time. For my money that's 2-3 yrs+ from now when nickel is $18k/t+ and majors are all at the races trying to snap up the best assets. But if it is earlier - so be it - I'm not complaining. But JM knows he has to put HZM into the best position in negotiation at the time, and his best bet is - have several majors on the register (tick), have a finance deal in place (nearly tick?!), have an engineering team on the ground (tick). So he's doing not too bad at the moment with just the one obvious thing missing. Get that and we're at the races IMO.
Craigie, Wasarunner - good points. Thanks for sharing. Lots of variables in play, I see. I'm optimistic ( hence my holding) but I'm not as strident/courageous/certain as some. That said, I hope we are all richly rewarded for our continuing patience...
JDF7 - market cycle is another thing. We are not in a nickel boom yet, but it is coming. With the lead time on project development and the size of the resource Horizonte will get snapped up. I want them to progress it, but if they sit on their hands and wait for the boom, a buyer will land. That's the insurance - in that scenario the ability of the current team to build a mine becomes irrelevant. Very little risk this is not worth (and realises) multiples (hopefully many of them) of the £50m mcap presently and that's why some (including me) have taken big position here.
That's something only you can decide with your own risk/reward appetite. The actual price right now is quite depressed relative to the project progress, main reason being major holders with distressed exits such as JPM, CIty FInancial etc. One RNS with substantial progress on finance and we will see a major move on SP, many here are heavily invested including myself, it's a personal risk/reward appetite after years of research for me. Good luck with your choices.
Interested to hear people's views on why the market is valuing HZM at less than a 1000th of the nickel value in its district. Is the market saying that the financing deal is not going to happen or will be on terms very unfavourable to existing investors? Or is the market, contrary to Orion's measured optimism, passing judgement on HZM's ability to execute even the first phase build? HZM is 11% of my ISA portfolio but I don't see it ( because on past experiences with miners and lots of time spent in Brazil) as a one-way bet. I plan to add a few more £k (on the back of news) but I don't have the confidence or is it craziness to put the lion's share on my money in it. How to manage risk/greed and when to bet significantly against the market?