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Uninvestable but wants to buy in around 6p should change his/her name to contradictory gla regards jack
Contrarian i appreciate any analysis or opinion on an investment I'm in because we all risk falling in love with a story. But to call HZM uninvestable at this point is extremely negative. you mention Omicron in brazil as a possible risk. firstly if it is a risk at all, given symptoms thus far have been described as extremely mild, it is a risk for any company anywhere. secondly i fail to see how it affects HZM long term. with 4 billion+shares at 10p that market cap is more or less our capital raise amount. That's what we're worth down the line assuming perfect execution??? c'mon. let one vermelho being given no value
Contrarian123 said "Uninvestable in my opinion."
You’d better warn La Mancha and Orion.
Ha ha-very good chaps!! Spellcheck is a nuisance!!
The contrarian contradiction.
So a large company buying at 7p will want to de-risk their investment in HZM. How do they do this.
1. They pump the price higher is the easiest and gradually take some off the table and share risk with other entities.
2. They open a massive short on the share and crash the price of their own investment, buy it back cheaper and possibly average it down a bit and dump the stock as it moves above their average.
1 option is the natural curve of how stock prices move on stocks like HZM after a placing of this size. 2 option is possible, but the short position is highly visible and other entities could short squeeze that position. In fact all the other funding entities would need to join in as they would see one funder stealing their breakfast and lunch sort of speak. Furthermore some of the funding bodies are on the company board and shorting the price hardly goes down well as they sit and hear progress on build and bet that it gets messed up rather than advising on how to prevent adverse issues.
I therefore understand all the concerns raised, but investment sentiment does not always operate as suggested in the article. I do agree that HZM is in a trading range for the next 8 weeks or so as things settle down.
Tony
Another background issue that I have raised before is that ripping off private investors supporting climate change stocks attracts a lot of adverse publicity. It will be used to site institutional bias against the climate change agenda and that kick back can become quite aggressive and should not be underestimated. HZM has a tail wind of support out there.
It is undeniable that punters will not make as much as they had hoped for.
However, the opinion of some of the big names in mining think this is an excellent investment and have put substantial amounts of money here.
The opinion of one hack is just that.
All valued to balance.
As a LTH this is a long term investment.
It will pay off for the patient
Contrarian - Are you the person posting bearish messages about the offtake agreement and how unfavourable it will be for HZM?
There is always one and you appear it - well done. Look, it is what it is, the market will decide in due course, whilst in the mean time, the market mechanics play out.
Morning Rover
Unfortunately it is not the bear case it is I am afraid the pragmatic case.
It has been dismissed by the 2-4p average forum cheerleaders because of course they want to protect their investment.
Anyone thinking of investing now should tread carefully. The time has passed. All one would be doing is to help their exit strategy as I am sure they are looking to sell. The prices quoted in the article are for full production to be realised with the bulk of the value in 2028.
I concur with the author that the share price will be stagnant for many many months now. Uninvestable in my opinion.
I said in previous posts I may consider 5.8-6p but I think even 5p is not such a remote possibility. All it takes is one piece of bad news.
First cases of Omicron have hit Brazil who knows it may get worse it may prove to be nothing. Take your chances.
Construction has still not started as everything has to be signed-off. If Omicron takes hold who knows how it may affect construction.
Lots to go wrong here.
Bwana is the beans,however Cont.is a ?
How did Bwana become beans. Lol
Sorry I blame the spell checker.
Contrain,
Beans has already shared this link under the tread ‘the bear case’, so already discussed on the bb.
I’m glad that you feel the need to share again.
Hello dreamers and realists - Expert analysis below - Health warning some may say
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/commodities/looking-ahead-at-horizonte-minerals/?mc_cid=e3d4e4ed2f&mc_eid=3347224638
By my reckoning 10p is about as far as this can go if it gets built without serious glitches or further lockdowns.
If the nickel bubble does not burst then perhaps as the article says 15p
The dreamers might envisage 26K per tonne. OK maybe - Jam tomorrow as they say
When you may ask 2028
Keep hodling - I am so glad to have sold.
Small extract below
? This means the true ‘adjusted’ PV at start of production in 2025 will be $740m-$68m+$443m-$460m = $655m
? Per the 4,670m shares then in issue, that equals 10.5p per share.
? If stage two is added from production year four, the combined life-of-mine NPV becomes $1,179m and, per share, will be 18.9p
? However, this NPV totals the whole 29 year life and is not a logical price to pay
? A more appropriate figure will be the net cash flow, which with stage two at $16.800/t will total $4,033m over 29 years – ie £1.05m pa – or 2.2p per share per annum.