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Not watched the vids yet TDT but do they explain the discrepancy between the energy densities of lfp and l-ion (basically 1:2) and the 20% greater weight comment that has been put forward and supprted by yourself?
I will watch them tomorrow - promise! But in the short term I note that Quantumscape added anither 14% to its SP today. (Thats over $2bn in the last 2 days since reporting the lab test results).
VauxhallViva
This is worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdZL8RF3thI
It answers some of your questions. Jordan does some very good videos and is well worth following.
If you're not convinced by Jordan try Matthew Fernley, a very switched on analyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6DLsmgo-bE
The whole thing is an awful lot more complex and involved than I suspect most realise but fpvone is not far off the mark.
TDT
Fpvone can you please elaborate on the" lfp weighs approx 20% more than l-ion" that you asserted. Where does that come from?
My research just concerning Tesla batteries is as follows;
Currently, the LFP battery packs of Tesla made with CATL’s battery cells reach an energy density of 126 Wh/kg. Whereas the 2170 panasonic l-ion cells are rated at 260Wh/kg. Approx twice as energy dense. Therefore you need 100% more lfp to match the same kwh l-ion pack size, not 20%.
The Tesla 4680 to come will likely be over 300Wh/kg and the news yesterday was that the Quantumscape cells have been independently tested at 400Wh/kg. Other SSB developers are already reporting figures up to 450Wh/kg
LFP weighs in approx 20% more than li ion it's the cost that really matters. If SSB comes in it will be a super premium product not $90/kw at pack level. Probably closer to $200/kw not good at all for mass market.
The Tesla cyber truck has 1.4 million pre orders this vehicle uses the 4680 cell that is very high in nickel that's only one vehicle. Any premium car will have NCM so demand is just ridiculous and supply will have to be handled very carefully.
VauxhallViva
Fair comment. I think the bottom line here is the market for EVs is going to be so large and develop so quickly that none of us, including the supposed expert analyst, can accurately predict how it's going to play out. The one thing I do know for sure is predictions 10 years out do not have a particular high success rate.
Supply is going to be the big issue and that goes for more than just nickel as we transition to a green economy.
TDT
On both material and cost TDT, when you factor how much less you need of a SSB pack compared to an equivalent LFP pack then both the savings and performance come in to sharper focus.
Consider a typical medium sized car pack (60kwh);
LFP energy density of typical 100wh/kg weighs in at 600kg
SSB around 400wh/kg is just 150kg.
450kg less of battery is anwful lot of material (therefore cost) including nickel saved to achieve better econony amd performance than the heavy LFP alternative.
When the potential gains are this large then innivation is typically faster than anticipated and therefore I'd respectfully beg to differ with the 2030 analalysts you quote.
Just my view of course and as you conclude, we may need to agree to differ whilst we watch how the technology plays out.
agree TDT,
runaway of metals could eventually cause boom or bust?, maybe not, but certainly a market correction
inflationary pressures and higher interest rates are here
Great deramp TDT with your lfp, you’ve obviously diversified your position and due to miss out on the MASSIVE HZM re-rate lol lol
HZM Are On The Cusp Of Transformational NEWS
Seriously Looking Goooood
Now Let The Feeding Frenzy Begin …. Booooooom
Solid state replaces liquid electro light with solid ones. The price and volume curve for this will be very high. NCM all types will be more expensive than LFP. Bit of scale needed here even after taking LFP into account TESLA needs about 30 GW//hrs per year just for themselves. This number is guesswork from memory but it's about 3x world supply as of now. Plenty to go around.
VauxhallViva
I do for several reasons.
Cost.
Material availability.
Potential performance improvements (it's not just limited to nickel rich chemistries).
Just about every single analyst I've read see's LFP with about 20% of the market by 2030.
You said, in a previous post "....SSB will be 15% to 20% lower cost than current cells due to replacement of expensive battery grade graphite." If they can find a way of removing "expensive" battery grade graphite from the mix they can do the same with everything else that's expensive.
I guess we'll just have to disagree about LFP.
TDT
Doh my previous post now appears!
Thats LSE for you!
Appreciate the points you make TDT especially regarding the short term beneficial dampening effect that LFP can have on nickel prices while we get Vermehlo in to production.
However with SSBs having an almost 4x power to weight advantage over LFP it will be like asking my younger self in the early eighties to chose between a Lada and a BMW.
I therefore dont see LFP being around post 2025.
Appreciate the point you make TDT, especially the beneficial short term dampening effect of LFP on the nickel price (while we get Vermehlo into production).
However with SSB having an almost 4x power to weight advantage over LFP then it will be like asking my younger self in the early eighties to chose betwen buying a Lada and Bmw. And we all know the differing longer-term paths that those 2 followed.
I dont see LFP 5 years from now.
I think the EV market is going to be big enough with a diverse demand profile to accommodate several battery chemistries. Everything I’m reading suggests LFP will be around quite some time to come. Does that matter? Not really, the market’s big enough.
Having LFP as a go to option when the market for nickel starts to overhear, IMO, is a good thing. A runaway nickel price doesn’t do anybody any favours in the long run.
TDT
The claim is though Tricky that SSB will be 15% to 20% lower cost than current cells due to replacement of expensive battery grade graphite.
If true, why would you buy LFP with all its inferior qualities?
“Nobody will want LFP cars when SSB are available.”
Not so sure about that. At the lower end of the market where cost is important and range less so there will still be a place for LFP. That does really matter though because the market will be big enough to accommodate several battery chemistries.
TDT
I hadnt heard of Factorial Energy before but heres news today of a tie up with Hyundai and Kia to develop their SSB.
https://insideevs.com/news/543353/hyundai-kia-solid-state-battery/
All these SSB chemistries focus on replacing the graphite anode with lithium metal and/or silicone. They all use NCM as it is currently the highest energy density cathode commercially possible.
Nobody will want LFP cars when SSB are available.
Car manufacturers are partnering as they see the solution to range, power, safety, charge time, weight reduction and material cost (silicone is cheap and plentiful as opposed to battery grade graphite) in SSBs.
Thanks Luke,
Plus Quantumscape (VW group major investor) jumped 8% yesterday on independent verification testing of its solid state (high nickel cathode) battery cell. They have a $4.5bn cash pot to bring it to commercial production..
https://insideevs.com/news/543969/sk-innovation-solid-power-batteries/
NCM formula and 930 kilometre range utilising existing plants.