London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
They included the following in the Annual Report: "Post period-end highlights and current trading
• Feedstock constraints in the US and Australia impacted sales volumes and revenues in Q1 2018; however demand for products remained strong and margins continue to improve
• Recently all six processing “trains” in Canton have been operating – the first time, save for a few days in January, since August 2017 – due to improved feedstock supply driving utilisation"
Therefore I expect a further update at the AGM. If the six processing trains in Canton have kept operating continuously (barring necessary shut-ins), then that will be very good news in itself, even without a feedstock contract win, as it will show they can at least get sufficient input volume. I very much doubt they will be timing a contract annoncement to coincide with the AGM. If it comes, it will be announced when it happens.
We're hostage to the MM(s), who has been playing around with the spread a fair amount in the run up to the AGM.
As to the AGM,There might be an added general update but the AGM is often just process stuff. My expectations are towards seeing a continued easement on feedstock, rather than a big announcement.
Just a joke this share price. 8% drop, why??
Or been ramped for a while now. Even the long term holders disliked the ramping. Learn to ignore it.
Another decent day here and perhaps we have turned the corner here
That may have been true a couple of months ago but since then, the ramping has died down.
ramped to shit by people on here.
Some buy action today so far and hopefully price has bottomed. Lets hope that AGM provides some support
Hoovering near all time lows. Interesting to see price action here. Could be an easy 50-100% from the current price area with risk of 25-50%.
AGM next week ,maybe some news on feedstock, new CEO, or anything really to help us out of the doldrums.
The prospects here look much brighter than the price suggests...risk to reward looking good here.
The most effective way around the competition, is adding closed loop deals. These are probably less straightforward, as you have to have available reclamation facilities (in house or otherwise) at the supplier end. I find it hard to imagine that they wont add some deals with OEMs, especially now with CCs. Not sure how the ACR calculate credits but roughly per barrel, the EPA quote 0.43 metric tons of Co2 emissions. The advantage is more USP but the sums do stack up better on the bigger deals. In the next updates, we should get a clearer picture as to the state of easing (or not) of feedstock constraints.
Topped up this morning. 😀1.31 bit of a steal imo
Hydrodec is the only oil re-refining business in the world to receive carbon credits for its output. They just can't seem to get an advantage in securing feedstock. I wonder whether they can save some more money by using self generating renewable energy at both their plants in AUS and US. Electricity cost is one of the biggest cost factor as well in terms of running a refining plant. Save more in electricity cost, pay more for feedstock supplies - evens out the cost factors...
HI all, just thinking that if Mr black took Aivista oil uk off their hands for a nominal sum because it was loss making, Surely he would have tried to strike a deal as to Aivista USA supplying us with some feedstock, they do state on website that they have logistics in place for collection and delivery from Ohio to Florida. Just my thoughts or maybe wishful thinking.
It's true what you say TO, but the blended fuel can't be used as transformer oil, so the key comparison is whether HYR can produce transformer oil at a competitive price. And if it is marginal, will the carbon credits be enough to tip the balance? As well as the opportunity for some of the consuming companies to burnish their environmental credentials? That sort of consideration does carry an economic benefit for marketing.
Andy, the feedstock issue for hydrodec is made even worse by the fact that they have costs in recycling the used oil whereas those companies using it as a fuel don’t have any recycling costs. No chance of hydrodec winning the feedstock battle.
Great thanks Urraca - very helpful response.
More demand from elsewhere, particularly Mexico: "but also specifically in the US driven by robust demand for used transformer oil for fuels blending particularly in Mexico." Their USP is having the carbon credits to build into a supply deal I think. I agree though, if the price of feedstock has gone up, they're just going to have to suck it down. Given the improved margins, it makes sense pay up to try and operate at full capacity. It brings down the fixed cost element of each unit produced - basic management accounting.
Guys, does anyone have any insight why this feedstock issue has got worse and worse over the last year or so? Is it more competition in the market, overall reduction in available stocks, incompetence, or something else? Given improvement to margin, you would think Hyr could pay a bit more for it if that's what would potentially make a difference, at least then there would be a product to sell! As far as I recall, this was much less of an issue in the past? Seems this company just can't catch a break... sigh.
Gross margin doubled to 15% in 2017 from 2016. Achieved a positive group ebitda of £0.3m. In 2017, the Group had net cash inflow from operating activities of US$1.4 million (2016: US$4.4 million outflow). A new sourcing partnership to secure feedstock supplies would trigger the re-rate here.
As far as I know, they (Greenbottle + Avista, both Mr Black's) are building/re-building a plant in Denmark. What isn't known, is whether they are using in-house IP, or the Hydrodec one. Nice if it were the new HYR tech, given the 10% royalty that should still apply. I imagine anywhere other than England, they would welcome a new plant/expansion, with no multi year protracted planning phase. I can't see any feedstock sourced outside the US (other than Canada/Mexico) being viable (unless PCB contaminated, which is pretty much impossible to import). With transport costs rising, even within the US, logistically speaking, it's not straightforward. Originally G&S was meant to have supplied enough for full capacity, and future expansion. Not sure the reason why they haven't, could be simple costs as mentioned above, otherwise I wonder if there are any financial penalties for not supplying the feedstock. I believe Hydrodec had to purchase feedstock from G&S, even when the reactors were still being rebuilt, and thus couldn't be re-refined. Could explain why Mr Black needed the recently discussed credit line but still begs the question, why the less used debt form.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Mr black buying out Aivista oil uk, and saying slicker would like to build there own recycling plant in the UK. Maybe after this little deal he could go to them in the states and do a deal on feedstock supplies, or they could do a deal and take us out, as I think our technology is some what better than theirs. I do think our market cap is now very cheap.
trade volume today. Someone took the opportunity to buy at the lows. The flight down on small volume might've been MMs garnering interest, or some stops hit as it drifted down. Next update I'll be looking to see if they are closing the gap to reach central costs. As posted before, If I'm not mistaken, they aren't far off.
Q2 & Q3 are their best quarters so I am expecting good updates and better profitability.