The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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bartlebobton
That's a very interesting article that you linked to.
https://www.npd.no/en/facts/publications/reports2/resource-report/resource-report-2019/the-challenging-barrels/recovering-oil-from-fractured-basement-rock/
When Dr.Trice talked of perched water, I envisaged a pool of water way above the aquifer that #7 had drilled into.
But looking at the graphic, it shows that the perched water is probably in a vertical fracture and #6 missed it.
If that's true then the perched water should hopefully eventually drain itself out.
JockJoy ... The Norwegians have done it ... North Sea, I suspect you already know this.
For those who don't;
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/205776/lundin-reports-small-norwegian-north-sea-discovery/
Nice graphics and stuff
https://www.npd.no/en/facts/publications/reports2/resource-report/resource-report-2019/the-challenging-barrels/recovering-oil-from-fractured-basement-rock/
Capt Swag - your 1436 post was very apt.
My only slight reservation as an LTH well under water, is that frac basement has been previously done in shallower, more benign waters. WOS conditions are breaking into new territory, so there is a lot hanging on Dr T’s evaluation. Hence the ‘Doubting Thomases’ postings.
i think the water cut has always been an easy target for anyone wanted to slam hur. trice always said it was perched water and he is supposed to be the guru and with all the data.
ADUK "Which I find very strange. Peoples' minds seem to be fixated on water-cut, instead of actual barrels of oil being produced per day."
That's you and me both fella. Was in offshore design for 35 years and never came across a installation that did'nt have a produced water system. Think people think there's this big tank down there that only holds oil lol
awk - i hear what you are saying....however they have already got both wells running without the interference interfering so to speak - whether that be damping out etc - and said they expect to finalise near term production within 2 weeks. they stated in edison report their goal was 20k. so that suggests to me that they think they will be able to get to near that in 2 weeks.
i thought from memory the flaring restriction was 30k?
I have often wondered what the ESP's might actually achieve over and above natural flow rates.
Can I take it that down hole pressures have now diminished and hence the need for ESP's?
Or is there more to this in managing water cut?
Capt Swag,
"i suspect they wanted to see if the introduction of ESPs meant the two wells could run without the previous interference. it worked and they did. "
No, I disagree with you. This is tech stuff. Getting the ESP's 'into play' is not some magic wand. The 'interference' between the two wells because they're both producing mainly from their heel sections is just part of the story. And that 'interference' won't suddenly go away. However, with the ESP's running, the 'interference factor' may be possible to 'damp out' (no horrible pun intended !), through running the pumps at different speeds, varying choke-sizes, and so on. But to get meaningful results, any changes won't be made in a matter of days. You've got a very large reservoir of fluids down there. So to get any sort of meaninful result you can count on, you have to change one 'setting' (be it ESP 'draw', choke size, or whatever), and then wait to see how the reservoir reacts. Or more importantly, what given reaction it stabilizes at.
This will take time. In fact I personally feel that a 'conclusive' technical review being published by mid-September will be pushing things, time-wise.
But in the meanwhile, while the 'new gang' continue to play with the wells, I anticipate tankers coming and going, continuing to offload oil at a rate which puts many other AIM-listed oil companies to shame, and at a rate which makes them look idiotic.
Which I find very strange. Peoples' minds seem to be fixated on water-cut, instead of actual barrels of oil being produced per day.
CaptainSwag
They are limited to 20K because of flaring restrictions.
awk - i suspect they wanted to see if the introduction of ESPs meant the two wells could run without the previous interference. it worked and they did. So the next step is increase the flow on both wells and see how far they can go.
we were at 20k from both wells with no ESP until the interference became an issue. so the questions is how much can be got with the ESPs on? of course it is best to be cautious so i wouldnt be surprised if they stick at 20k anyway
adoubleuk,
"But as a qualifier, don't expect some sudden news about increased production and possibly reduced water-cut in the immediate. There's more 'experimentation' to be done to 'optimize' things. But much more possibilities."
I agree with this. I don't expect a huge increase in production or even attempts at it until after the submission of the technical review and the production plans with the strategy going forwards in September.
Regarding the multiple possibilities to optimise the production rate, there's a very high chance that Hurricane will just focus on the ESPs with the VSDs going forwards. Controlling flows with VSDs would provide less risk IMO. What we don't know is if the ESPs are working at their optimum - likely not which may have uptime issues.
Whilst it's great to have the maximum flow rate with minimal water cut and 100% stabilised flows, there's a huge risk that comes to achieving this (as we have seen from the multiple past RNS's). Going forwards, from the testing and the problems encountered so far, the technical team have some sort of guidance to mitigate risks in the future (should they keep attempting to achieve the optimum flow rate).
Personally, I think the recent RNS is the first step required to bring back confidence in the fact that the team plan on stabilising the production following the installation and comissioning of the ESPs. The short period of testing with the ESPs in the next 2 weeks will likely not encounter any problem with interference as these ESPs are operated through a VSD motor. The water cut on the other hand needs to be managed.
ALL IMO.
Maverick,
"The update was really good today, better than anyone here expected and with production back to 15,000 and the ESPs working we should see some daylight."
I don't think the RNS was 'really good', but instead 'wait and see' cautious.
On the tech side, it's good that the ESP's are online. That's a positive. And earlier today I expressed myself 'uncertain' as to why they are now being run on BOTH wells (as the RNS leads us to believe). It's a thing that's been going through my mind while sitting on cafe terraces in the sunshine, admiring the young girls passing by in their colourful summer clothes. I'm perverse like that. Not theadmiring the young ladies bit (who wouldn't, they dress like that to be admired !), but thinking about oilwells when such other distractions are around.
And I reckon I've now figured out in my mind why BOTH wells are on ESP. Or at least, the thinking behind it.
But as a qualifier, don't expect some sudden news about increased production and possibly reduced water-cut in the immediate. There's more 'experimentation' to be done to 'optimize' things. But much more possibilities.
It's pure game-theory. Discovered by Von Neumann, eminent physicist and mathematician, also involved in the development of the atom bomb.
Before, flowrates of the two wells have been determined by choke-size. Not (I suspect) infinitely variable, but in increments. Dunno how many. But ignoring the number of increments, just two chokes to play with. Now, with two chokes and two ESP's, even if they were just 'on / off', with no increments, you've got twelve possible combinations. But in reality, the chokes have incremental possibilities, and the ESP's are 'variable - speed'.
So lots more 'playing around' to be done before a sweet spot is found.
I agree can see this moving up above 7p maybe toward 9p before the next 2 week update thought rns was good now they are producing more oil and now they have 2 pumps going
So in my opinion looking good here
Agree sample. I have studied the sp movement closely over the years.. Often a delayed reaction and the sp goes up for no apparent reason. You have to remember the market makers try to avoid being on the wrong side of the trades.. Which affects their pricing and the tactics they take.
Even though we didn't make any sustainable gains at least the price held itself from the short drop first thing . I think there will be a breakout when no ones expecting but well justified as the RNS was not as bad as some first thought and we are way undervalued at these levels.
I think that we may have to wait a couple of weeks and better news in the next RNS for the 7p.
I think the rns was better than the market seems to think. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upward movement to 7p in the next few days. Sort of delayed reaction.
We are looking at about 2 weeks for the next rns update from the look of it. The bod have ready stated their aim is 20k per day and I wod t be surprised if we are on the way (fingers crossed and touch wood)..
I think the wording wasn't particularly good.. And this may have had an effect along with Pelham... The good thing is that they must be out or nearly there... Which means the resistance at 6p is probably gone... That means the shorts may be looking to close too.
I think hur could be a slow burner for the next few months.. But if oil price continues and consumption increases we are making a decent profit and look to be on track... Drilling of new wells prob next spring..
The RNS was good ,showing us and the market ..business as usual...nothing spectacular but reassuring that we aren’t sinking in water. The current bod seems to start delivering their plans and aims..it’s a good start!
For me it’s a major step for the ship to start its journey on the steady calmer waters.
We are at a very low SP and today’s news has put a big resistance for the MMs and shorters to push it lower..
I only see upwards movement from here..just imo
Very confident and relieved to hold strong here..
GL holders
When these clowns are done we should finally see hand break off properly
All playing out with Pelham having gone below the notifiable level then we should see the re-rate. The update was really good today, better than anyone here expected and with production back to 15,000 and the ESPs working we should see some daylight. Agreed that I had hoped for more of a rise, however today was one for positioning and fully expect more buyers to come in tomorrow.
Night all and GL all holders
Couldn't buy anything at all into close
MM's shut up shop
Expect gap and go in the morning
Snap, sorry for the duplicate, my wife interrupted me mid post hence the delay lol
"If Pelham sold yesterday then who was selling in bulk today :/"
Probably Pelham, yesterday was only that they've gone below the 3% threshold
It still could be Pelham as they could still have under 3% remaining.
8 July 2020
Hurricane Energy plc
("Hurricane" or the "Company")
Holding(s) in Company
Hurricane Energy plc announces that on 7 July 2020 it received notification that Pelham Capital Ltd. no longer has a notifiable interest in the issued share capital of the Company.
___________________________
If Pelham sold yesterday then who was selling in bulk today :/