We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
"so in my opinion it has been over represented in the SP"
In my opinion too. I wouldn't invest otherwise.
The fundamentals are strong, and as the uncertainties are taken care off by the board, confidence and investors will return to this company.
CaptainSwag
Average production this year to the end of H1 was 14.6k Bopd
The 2 week ESP test will complete shortly and if there is anything material to disclose we should have an RNS next week.
I will be happy if they can sustain a 15k average.
Slift - i still think the issue is that sentiment has been affected by more than the actual "risk" and so in my opinion it has been over represented in the SP. however i do realise that i am biased and lets be honest my opinion means squat didly
The price is what it is. no one can argue with that. however profit is made by looking for a disconnect - and that is what keeps me in this share.
the thing is long term holders got in when the production risk was a lot lot higher. we didnt know if it would continue producing after 6 months of testing. As it is it has been producing for over a year and at no less than 10k bod in 2020 (from memory).
CaptainSwag,
Yes, I think we can all agree that HUR is undervalued (or at this stage). But the risks affects sentiments.
Some can argue that production for the rest of the year will be 0 (due to no production guidance given and the uncertainty regarding the EPS and assets). Obviously that's like a worst case scenario, but that's the risks associated with the company and it is reflected in the SP and Market Cap.
Slift.
thanks slift...
the point is that with even a conservative figure it looks cheap..
CaptainSwag,
That figure was a very conservative estimate assuming that CAPEX will be spent in H2 following some kind of a disaster.
I will repost later with a more detailed calculation (once i'm done "working from home" lol) and provide an estimated P/E.
Slift.
slift - i think your projection was $24-$41m.....so say £25m as an average? gives 4 .5 ish compared to industry average of mid twenties.
slift - well the oil price is lower . however they are producing more than last year when production didn't even start until the summer...so i am not sure there will be a vast difference...
what was your figure for potential earnings this year ? be interesting to see the figure
Slift
A P/E ratio will always be historic unless is is a "forward" P/E.
CaptainSwag,
The P/E ratio for HUR on HL is based on 2019 earnings. I don't think that's applicable atm IMO.
genghis - dont know if that was directed at me? it is interesting as you have quite often been "subjective" on your maths here when it suits you
p/e ratio is based on price and earnings - so is a mathematical figure and therefore usual as part of someones research on a company. people use it all time. you compare with other companies in the same sector just as you do barrels produced or break even costs
no business is without risk - even bp have issues like oil spills etc etc...covid is/will have a devastating effect on a lot of oil companies...HUR can still survive (providing no issues with production) and can make a profit- which is pretty dam good at the moment all things considered.
I am not saying it is the only thing to consider - and people have to make their own mind up themselves. I have and for me the company is undervalued due to sentiment.
hur has been producing for over a year now. I get the question marks over water cut but it has never stopped production or income coming in.
No it does not SPs and PEs vary for a host of reasons. Too many ppl here taking single indicators to bolster an agenda. Look at compnies in the round.
All Lters here know exactly why conventional metrics are inapplicable. Anyone who thinks they are more than useful background atm is not grasping the issues.
sorry no p on the ratio....doh!
the p/e ratio for HUR is 2.44p according to HL . Since the figure is usually around 25p for oil producers i think this gives you an indication of whether HUR is under or over valued.
Gross revenue is no the same as profit but I do agree decent revenue is not to be sniffed at.
$250 million a year
Not bad for a company worth 110 million