The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Good for you seaside. In my view there are a few reasons for the share price drop. Clearly some are D risking may be worried about this water issue and spooked by the demise of i3 E and Tullow recently. Both these drops however seem to be aligned to their debt and funding problems of which HURVhave none. In fact the opposite . But I think the real reason is surely a distressed seller CRS ??
I've hung my hat quite simply on the fact that any change would have to have been RNS'd.
Dr T has in fact opted to release an update to the market at his leisure.
And I've nicked plenty in the low 30's.
$hit or bust now!
There is a great deal of nonsense being written on this board, mainly by people who have no worthwhile knowledge of Lancaster. I assume they have some ulterior motive.
However, I suspect that one of the main issues is that even if they wish to understand more, they are incapable of doing so. I am not a geologist, but having spent two hours assimilating what is in RT's latest Lyell paper, which was posted on 29th November, I am totally relaxed about my investment here.
For those with the knowledge and/or inclination to understand more the link is:
HTTP://jgs.lyellcollection.org/content/jgs/early/2019/11/29/jgs2019-142.full.pdf
There is no definitive % for the water or if it will be consistent - it's common sense that it will vary. It will be dependent upon the location of the wells in respect to the so-called perched water and what the volume of it is, as production progressed more water and oil will migrate towards the wells the % is unknown. But as oil is lighter than water the oil the assumption is that the water will stay as a low % and I guess at some times will rise or tend to 0.
The whole issue goes back to the assessment of the company in respect to the fracturing, if the ground is highly fractured as assumed the underlying water should rise steadily as oil is removed across a wide area - the suggestion is than the underlying water is coning, that can have 2 causes I believe. Either they are drawing off oil too fast ( Genl mistake) , that can be rectified. The alternative is that the fracture model is wrong, that IMO is much more serious as it means there is less oil or if they are unlucky there could be preferential paths from the base to wells (could be fault line) again slowing production could resolve.
My interpretation may be flawed but it's as good as anything presented here and the point is we need to let the management do the testing and advise the result and if necessary tweak operations - there is NO REASON to believe there is even a problem let alone a serious one. No unexpected deterioration or deviation from expectations, though some would have you believe the game is over and we're all doomed.