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I reread the rns, I guess the main takeaway both wells are on now, and better than expected production and we want to do something with spirit. it wasnt all doom and gloom maybe
RR spiked down to 258.45p around 14:45 on Friday not that any could be bought below 263p after the stops were hoovered up. So the chartists were actually pretty much bang on on this occasion. I'm generally quite sceptical and base my investments on fundamentals but each to their own. It definitely works for some.
I'm not following anyones calls, I'm simply saying that someone on the RR forum bought at £2.63 last week.
Hereshopin', RR dropped to £2.63.
Buys should start to flood back in oil up
Brent up......
Yes but this is not boohoo.......charting picks up trends and this has built a base and the news today is what supports the move up. The dealers are creating a market and will no doubt have been filling orders all day.
Fair play - I just don't like people shooting Swazers down, as his charts are petty good and I have seen a few over the years
MaverickD, I am not against hurricane what I am criticising is someone claiming that charting alone can give all the answers which I think is not the case.
Took out some fools that wanted to put fuel in the engine. As the orders have filled it takes the next move up. Brent up and we are looking to break through 6.5p and have a strong finish.
Swazers, what does the charts say now, it was going to go up to 12 p last to last week but may be it has forgotten to put fuel in its engine. Any comments welcome...
I think this is a careful and measured RNS by the board.
Instead of going out all guns blazing and overpromising and under delivering they have given as a safe cautious starting point.
There are several positives to take out of this. Firstly the production is above for what I was expecting at 15,000 BPD. Secondly the other well is Also producing. And finally they are hedging at $35 per barrel and all signs point to a gradual and steady recovery in the oil-price post Covid.
All in all it might not be the miracle cure RNS people were hoping for but it is one that tells us that the BOD are now a safe pair of hands for the company.
Funny how all the posters that were quiet come out of the woodwork to flood the board with posts when the actual news was positive. The shut in well has been opened up again, production up to 15,000, ESP’s are pumping the water and now a put option purchased to hedge 10k of oil - think the new CEO has played a blinder to be honest. That’s what experience brings to the table.
Now just need to look at Swazers charts as we should break through all key technical points on the upside.
Last week it was AMGO and now it looks like Hur.
I’m buzzing!
Guessing most will now be buying over 8p at open as average production looks decent and our second well is back online. Funny how the graph will change
@proverloop very balanced although I would think as a base case you go with $50 oil as that’s what I tend to use. Saudi and Trump are looking to get it back to around 65-70 longer term, but I expect it to rise to circa 50 in a few weeks. A number if players will then hedge. Jet fuel accounts for 7% of total consumption and that’s just started coming back as of this month.
As for Swazers I think he gets bashed for no reason - his charts add more insight into direction, it’s not an instant gratification as some on here want or perceive. Given time it will play out.
Around 700+ days till July 2022 even at $40 @12000 Bbld that's over £109 mill in profit,(@$27 bbl lifting cost) if they choose to pay off the bonds, + the cash in the bank, which IMHO they won't, they'll remortgage.
Again IMO they probably will have to re-drill 7z , but in the mean time they will probably flow the well again, at a manageable rate until the water becomes a problem again, then close it in again like they've been doing during the well testing, they will have a good idea of the optimum choke settings by now.
Some of the long termers that are left here will remember DrT saying a few years ago now that he wanted to be an exploration company, what he probably meant was that he'd be happy to let someone take over the operator-ship of the fields as long as there was enough coming in for further exploration, so it may not be a surprise if they part with some of the asset,but mind you he's almost gone(still a large share holder) so that outlook may have changed.
Swazer's keep the charts coming and ignore the white noise, (its an open board, so everyone can voice there opinion) as there's been some amount of crap written on the board recently.
I'll be back in 6 months when I'm hopefully not so deep under water.
Keep the faith.
@DireEmblem they don't and that is 24 months away. They will be generating profits at existing levels and with my Brent call I can see it heading toward $50 this month. Today was a blip, tomorrow should hopefully be better as we await EIA data.
Increased how, at what cost for what profitability? What's the POO in a years time? 2 years to find 200+ million in cash with only one well producing at the moment. Still not attractive to a buyer.
What you are concerned about the Bond payments that are due in July 2022? Production will be increased way before then
I was talking about the so so results in the fields that Spirit are invested in. Lancaster is going to take time and MONEY to fix so again little upside without splashing the cash and with bond payments due. I think Hurr will recover but Spirit will not buy it out IMO.
The other point Malcy made was that at these levels you could see the upside and that's why I am invested. I appreciate there are a number with averages in excess of 30p and I understand how annoying it can be for them reading what I write saying the SP could well treble from these levels, as they are so much under water. The truth is it is always best to buy in tranches and then you have a chance of averaging down to a a sensible level. I thought this was a bargain at 13p, so at a little over 6p I can't tell you how cheap I think the current sp is.
Not sure you could say poor results. As far as I understand the issue at Lancaster is the close proximity of the two wells. If you listened to Malcy yesterday he said the same. There will be a technical fix, although production from the single well should be able to achieve 15k barrels - just a case of gradually opening the choke and seeing what is a stable rate.
Maverick, they farmed in before they were put up for sale. They are still for sale so jumping further into exploration costs for an area with mixed to poor results so far would be the end of any sale . Who would want to buy risks on someone elses's terms as well as the cash burn to the balance sheet?
I doubt spirit will buy HUR - as already said they have their own issues. The board's connections would be an obvious choice as well as Rona Ridge neighbours. I suspect Trice might not have wanted to be sold on as part of the package - and hence his departure.
But lets stick to what we know - the SP movement is is a technical break of trend and what I and many others would consider a re-rating of the SP.
Pedro what are you talking about? They have farmed into 50% of the Warwick and Lincoln fields already. The current valuation here is sub cash balance and spirit could easily table a cheeky £300m bid.