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Would production not be lower due to repairs, I cant see how they can announce higher numbers from last month?
fandg2
It should be quite obvious that some issue arose to warrant an inspection and that the issue must have been serious enough they could not leave it unattended till the scheduled maintenance in September. I very much hope they are doing the planned maintenance as well and it's unfortunate they did not comment on this in the RNS.
"Would the staff doing repairs be able to do the maintenance?"
Yes and no is the answer to that lol. Routine stuff (most) will be done by the core crew but there may well be stuff that needs to be done by a vendors/3rd party otherwise warranties etc may get invalidated
Adk, we'll have to wait and see but the RNS stated "
On 2 August 2020, the Aoka Mizu FPSO underwent a controlled shutdown to undertake an inspection. The inspection identified necessary repairs which have been ongoing in recent days, with production expected to restart imminently."
That smacks of a bit of kit acting up unexpectedly to me, not the words for the 'Annual Shutdown". Don't get me wrong, the annual shutdown coordinators and maintenance controllers would be all over this trying to maximise getting jobs done whilst the FPSO is shutdown.
For me I'm still expecting another shutdown in September.
awk - the latest rns said inspection followed by repair - which sounds very different to an annual "service" to me. However I suspect they would take the opportunity to kill 2 birds with one stone. Would the staff doing repairs be able to do the maintenance?
Thinking about it I wonder if the inclusion of reserve downgrade was there to deflect from the fact that they had an issue? again getting september's probable bad news out but at the same time taking the focus away from the breakdown scenario.
He did say this week would be 'fun'
That's one word for it.
IMO, we may likely receive some very positive updates from the HUR management/BOD from September on wards (or possibly even earlier).
Tuxedo. Why are you anticipating a positive RNS next week? We have a field full of water not oil. If oil price goes even slightly lower expect SP to drop even lower I.e 1p.
Just a thought maybe PlantedBHA is there??!!
Agree everything is being choreographed
G
Slift,
"Regarding planned shutdown, I don't think that will have changed. It's normal for companies to shut down operations for a week, and that is usually planned well in advance. Hurricane can't be changing that now since operators would have booked holidays etc and their shift patterns would be a mess."
I beg to differ with your opinion, though what I'm writing here is only opinion of my own.
I firmly believe that the shutdown referred to in the RNS is the planned maintenance previously expected in September, with the dates brought forward. A very good reason for this possibly being to get everything done and things back to normal operation prior to publication of the tech report, before Sept 11th.
This is, after all, the oilfield, which works 24 / 7 / 365, and holidays be damned. Also it's quite probable that the maintenance will be performed by subcontractors. Plant maintenance technicians aren't exactly thin on the ground, and if one is on holiday or off sick, you just call up another.
"Regarding planned shutdown, I don't think that will have changed. It's normal for companies to shut down operations for a week, and that is usually planned well in advance. Hurricane can't be changing that now since operators would have booked holidays etc and their shift patterns would be a mess.
But again never know, they could still keep a few operations staff to produce through shutdown."
Agree, also spares, kit and trades for whatever jobs are being planned will probably still be in transit. Not something that can be changed at the drop of a hat when a couple of guys have probably spent most of their time this year planning the bejesus out of the week they got to do whatever tasks have been arranged.
I still think the concept of an OWC is erroneous in a fractured reservoir. OWC is appropriate in a normal sandstone reservoir where you have pressure communication within compartments and even between compartments. When the oil is only in fractures, then maybe over millions of years you get an OWC but when you produce up such permeable zones in a matter of months, there is no way you get pressure equilibration and so every fracture is in effect a separate compartment. Each fracture will behave differently and some will produce water much more quickly - leading to production problems. A horizontal well links many fractures - the one with the highest water ingress will be the one that can kill the whole well.
"You would assume that it would allow water to drain down but how much is pure guesswork."
4 days residence time isn't a lot for the water to settle.
But we're talking along the whole fractured basement, where the fluids are left to settle with no disruption from pumps or pressure.
So could be something.
Regarding planned shutdown, I don't think that will have changed. It's normal for companies to shut down operations for a week, and that is usually planned well in advance. Hurricane can't be changing that now since operators would have booked holidays etc and their shift patterns would be a mess.
But again never know, they could still keep a few operations staff to produce through shutdown.
Slift
That is an interesting question and one I am hoping HUR will report when production resumes. As far as I am aware this will be the first occasion since startup that both wells have been shut down. You would assume that it would allow water to drain down but how much is pure guesswork.
I would also like to know if they have used this unplanned shut down to carry out the maintenance scheduled for September.
I wonder what the watercut would be like on well 6 now that it's been shut in.
Will it have increased? decreased?
Probably no change, but you never know.