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I was in amer too luckily got out for my buy in many long term holders were sold down the river
The ghost of Amerisur Resources sits in my memory. Sold down the river as per so many AIM oilers fate. I very luckily got out even there. And Amerisur did not have the baggage that taints HUR. I really want to be wrong but I fear a huge haircut for thousands of little guys, me included, lies ahead. I've already decided this is the very last AIM oiler for me. No more. I believed the fairy tale and lost. It seems.
Hi Dive,
"So whilst HUR looks dirt cheap and ripe for a takeover its not as straightforward as someone coming in with an offer at 10 or 12p."
Ofcourse not. I do suspect HUR to be a takeover target (until at least HUR confirm that they are seeking a CEO or promote Beverley to be the CEO). I am in no way trying to deramp this stock. I too have a small holding here, and would want the best for HUR.
20-50% premium is considered "normal" for takeovers. Anything above 50% would be because the company is exceptional. Whilst HUR is in no way Sirius Minerals, but I think that's a good example to use for my logic behind the premiums.
Apologies for quotations:
But I think long term holders need to understand that if a takeover offer does come, then it's not as "not as straightforward as someone coming in with an offer at" 30 or 40p.
- The "uncertainty over the nature of HUR's assets"
- "The increasing water cut in the 7z well has unnerved investors but may also have created further uncertainty in the minds of those 'interested parties'."
- The questions regarding stability of production and interferences
- The questions regarding aquifer vs perched
- The questions of the £230m convertible bond due in 2022
- The questions of the material downgrade to contingent resources
- All the above question the viability of the assets and as you say "If not then it will be a disaster"
Whilst I agree that the "potential" is massive, there is a lot of uncertainty. The current share price and market cap reflects this uncertainty. And until these uncertainties regarding the assets and the company as a whole are taken care off, the value will always be at a discount.
ALL IMO.
If we get an offer it would be over 20p my opinion
Slift
What you and possibly others new to HUR fail to grasp is uncertainty over the nature of HUR's assets. If long term commercial recovery is possible the potential is massive. If not then it will be a disaster. The jury is still out on whether HUR's FB will work. At last years AGM Alistair Stobie mentioned with great excitement what he called the interruption meaning that they expected a takeover or farm in within the next twelve months. This has not happened and it may be that the Warwick results have made the 'interested parties' a bit more cautious. The increasing water cut in the 7z well has unnerved investors but may also have created further uncertainty in the minds of those 'interested parties'. So whilst HUR looks dirt cheap and ripe for a takeover its not as straightforward as someone coming in with an offer at 10 or 12p.
If for example an 'interested party' approaches the BoD saying we are prepared to offer 12p,but only if you make a acceptance recommendation and the DoB accepted what would that say about their confidence in the assets.
RT said they needed to get 6 to 12 months data following first oil and for reasons not fully explained they only had 5 months at the time of the capital markets day. I know that the Company were originally expecting to have a CPR in H2 this year. We now know it will be next year. I cannot see the BoD agreeing an acceptance recommendation for a low ball offer before and until they have enough data to provide them with a better idea of the value of the assets.
Here's a random post Dire from full year results 19 March 2020
Outlook
· The combination of low oil prices and COVID-19 have created an unprecedented economic environment
o However, at our guided production rate of 18,000 barrels of oil per day (which includes a 90% uptime assumption) cash operating costs are expected to be approximately $17 per barrel
o Hurricane has been working with its offshore rig, FPSO and aviation contractors to put measures in place to prevent COVID-19 having an impact offshore and limit broader impacts on production operations
· Hurricane holds significant cash balances ($164.3 million of unrestricted cash as at 18 March 2020) which is forecast to be sufficient to meet obligations and committed costs as they fall due
o Hurricane is reviewing its forward capital work programme beyond existing commitments, in light of the macroeconomic environment
Well put Slift, some folk clearly have no understanding of hedging and the rationale behind it.
The hedge is insurance.
At the current market conditions, $35 hedge is probably the best you're going to get.
Remember, Hedging works both ways --> consumers of crude would want to protect themselves against oil price rising. Whilst producers of crude would want to protect themselves against oil price dropping.
$35 is likely the best offer they could right now when oil prices are depressed. As according to their RNS, their hedges was purchased with put options. Meaning that $35 is the floor, and the company benefits from any upside in oil price from there.
Interesting posting history you’ve got....
Popped up on an old feed some newbies may not have seen fella, didnt realise you was a mod ??
*old
Why are you sharing oil news ?