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Stu, fair comment I didn’t do the maths but do see Well 6 following the trend of 7z now that water has broken through.
Namely water cut will increase and oil production will reduce.
I also disagree that this will be 1% per month, I think it will be quicker as it was for 7z.
I do agree the wells aren’t producing from the length of the well bore which surprised HUR.
The question is will they ever do if the fractures are large near the heel and very well connected?
I believe the ESPs may help with this but time will tell.
I’m now not going to post on this board until we get another RNS.
ngms,
But you have them going from...
Total fluids
-6 = 13,600 bpd
-7z = 10,640 bpd
= 24,240 bpd
To what exactly?
< 20,000 bpd?
In the space of 7 weeks? Because of the reservoir?
Not a chance. I would put that at less than 1% probability.
Why do you expect this sudden drop in total fluids? It makes no sense at all.
We are already in year 2 of production and total fluids has never done anything like that. Also the pressure gradient was still flattening out in April.
From the IPR plots the wells still haven’t seen their maximum extent of reach, so there is still scope for further surprises yet (both good and bad).
I expect Total Fluids will not change much at all over the next 12 months. Or even over the next 5-9 years of the EPS.
There is no mechanism for the total fluid rates to fall off, that would only happen if we were depleting the reservoir and we can’t do that here because a). the EPS is too small and b). This reservoir is still being charged from below.
The reservoir (one of heterogeneous fluids) is vast, we know this as the IPR of the wells was still flattening in April even after 10 months of production!
The only question is the ratio and distribution of fluids (oil and water).
Total fluid rates might change of course IF they experiment with different choke / ESP settings. But that isn’t indicative of reservoir extent or content and I think most of that experimenting with different configurations is mostly behind us now.
We already know the rate limits that draw up water from the various well tests. HUR have published this with their well testing data.
Some of the expectations I see in numbers people post here are way off the curve. Not trying to be rude.
There is enough data available to plot out production forecasts with sensible confidence bands.
The water cut will creep up in an S curve profile. -7z might water out and be abandoned because facility capacity will be preferential allocated to -6.
Can’t see -6 becoming uneconomic though. Looks fine on all my projections of past points.
The existence of the -6 well on this license also makes the whole license extremely interesting. -6 cannot be disappeared from history now.
A well on this license flowed 10-14,000 barrels for over a year and it’s still thundering away. For that reason alone it is the most prospective license block in UK waters.
Today you can buy into it for free (equity is valued at cash).
I secretly like the scary stories and the swirling fears of doom, because without all that I wouldn’t be here.
Re the OWC one well as noted in the CPR suggested a much shallower OWC so was ignored. Also the aquifer pressure despite a few attempts was never successfully measured.
Therefore the current assumed water gradient maybe wrong and may just be a convenient fit to where they think the OWC is.
This does mean there has to be some element of doubt re the current OWC never mind the water breakthrough being experienced.
bummer, had to put a tick on your 18:26, ngms (!)
Option 2 seems the go, if finance allows. Strewth, what a time for a black swan called covid-19 to fly in.
gla
ngms; it's possible you are right, few readers/posters here would deny that. All of us have opinions, but as few - if any - of us have access to the full dataset, they remain opinions. What is dislikable is when people post uncaveated or unqualified statements, especially when the (currently) available evidence either contradicts such, is ambiguous or inconclusive. There is acknowledgement generally here that Dr T - and all the tech team involved thus-far - may be wrong on the owc, but it seems unlikely, does it not, for such an encompassing frock-up. (Unlikely but not impossible, one must say...) On the other hand, there could be other explanations outside the limited remit of those most oft discussed. Imo the latter is more likely than either of the two mainstream 'binary' cases - a bit of fluid geology that wasn't expected (or adequately modelled).
Hur is about GLA (the others having been dropped as uneconomic) and the vagaries of 7z are but one aspect of this. If you are right, Hur (and GLA) may be done-for. Or there may still be up to 1bn bbl there.
The eps is a 'prover' Hur always have said the wells should not be over-driven as this may induce watering; So let's be sensible about this and not overly partisan.
The co'y needs time, during which all will be revealed, however I do feel that as time passes it's taking the golden window with it, as witnessed by the poo action..........
gla
gla
Stu, you assume that well 6 can produce more on natural flow by opening the choke. My opinion is that they are close to the limit of what oil they can produce without materially sucking more water and causing instability.
I’m confident that if they could produce more oil without instability or potentially affecting future production they would.
Sorry should have read shallower rather than lower OWC
Dickbat, I may not be an oil reserves specialist but empirical evidence will tell you they often get it wrong. Certainly HUR, Dr T and RPS have got Lancaster wrong given the EPS production profile being worse than the low case in the CPR, with water breakthrough occurring much earlier than any model.
What I do have is 25 years of serious investing in this sector and therefore some good technical knowledge and more importantly understand how the BoDs work.
Given the last RNS what don’t you get?
Certainly inferred a lower OWC and that water is therefore coming from the aquifer causing the unexpected issue.
If that is reality then there will be a large downgrade and rescue work required. Until that is undertaken production will continue to decline and water cut will continue to increase.
Remember the CPR models all had 20k per day for the first three years, averaged to 17k per day with maintenance.
Therefore it’s my opinion they have two choices
1) Sidetracks higher up the well bore distancing the heels further and looking for each producer to sweep different areas.
2) P&A well 7 and drill a new producer. Flaring constraints will stop them having 3 producers. This may also apply to well 6 if 7’s a success.
“ I’m expecting well 6 to have water cut above 20% in the late September update and around 10k oil max.”
It doesn’t even make sense to operate the EPS that way.
You expect -6 to produce...
10,000 barrels of oil and 2,500 barrels of water?
I presume you expect even less fluids from -7z?
But total fluids capacity of AM is 30,000 barrels and water handling capacity (prior to any FWKO mods) is 22,000 barrels.
Why would they choke the EPS back to 60% of throughput capacity? They will not.
If you think -6 will be down at 10k oil by September then you must also think the watercut would suddenly be rocketing from 12% and rising at 1% a month to >50% and rising at 30% per month.
I don’t think the water cut creep is going to suddenly accelerate 30 fold.
Haha, it’s just absurd, but I guess that is why the opportunity here is so juicy now.
People expecting all kinds of crazy nonsense.
SpruceGoose,
I haven’t knowingly lied. Please point out where you believe I’ve lied and I’ll gladly put out an apology if that is the case.
What I’ve being doing is posting my own personal opinion which is contra to nearly every other post on this board, which is frequented by people who in my opinion seem to be in some kind of altered reality.
Yes I often get things wrong, but I think you may find that I get more things right than wrong and unlike others bare no malice whatsoever.
ngms;
Kindly note that Hur's issued guidance regarding owc is that it MAY be revised. Not WILL, MAY. Do you understand that particular differentiation within the English language? Your (repeated) statements are mistruths (aka lies, legally); you seem to have adopted a Trumpian approach to truthfulness, i.e. why bother when mistruth fits your agenda.
FWIW, I also hold the 'chhoo-choo' brigade in similar disdain.
The possibility (italicised) that you may be right is not lost on the Pi's here, hence the sp.
gla
Call it speculation, call it an educated guess, call it divine intervention it doesn’t matter.
Only Father Time will show if I’m correct.
Ngms27 you seem to talk with an awful lot of confidence and knowledge... I presume you are an oil reserves engineer specialist or someone very knowledgeable with many years of experience in the one and gas industry? If not which I think is the case your guess is as good as anyone else’s but you write as if you have all the information to hand which you and everyone on this board do not!! If you where the highly qualified person I mentioned you would be very loose on your assumptions without having seen all of the data... just not professional..!! So we can and will take your persistent berating with a pinch of salt and just waiting for the results from the company and there plans going forward.. Might I suggest you put as much effort into a company you might well have your money invested in..
"At 12k with 12% watercut there is no way well 6 can produce 18k in a stable manner"
That really is the most stupid statement.
Quite obviously a well at 12k will never produce 18k or anything in excess of 12k whatever the water cut.
"I’m expecting well 6 to have water cut above 20% in the late September update and around 10k oil max."
Pure speculation. Sounds more like you are hoping rather than expecting.
PlantedBHA,
At 12k with 12% watercut there is no way well 6 can produce 18k in a stable manner.
During the single well testing phase of the EPS well 6 was put at a maximum 16.5k stabilised.
In my opinion it’s likely producing as hard as it practically can given the likely reduced OWC.
I’m expecting well 6 to have water cut above 20% in the late September update and around 10k oil max.
6 well operating at a low level
Tested 15k plus on its own previously
No reason why it can’t do that again
Trice said they could shut down 7z well and keep guidance at the time of 18k on one well.
Nothing has changed other than slightly more water than before when pumped harder
Pump ain’t switched on yet either on 6 well
It’s under natural flow
I’m expecting an uplift from 17 k in the next RNS.