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No probs Spruce - we are all on the same side - I'm in up to the gunwales too
[" Can you state with certainty that if WD had been declared a discovery of similar quality to Lanacsater 6 that the share price would not be where it is today - I have been watching this for quite a while now and I would not be confident in stating that - would you?"]
- er, no!
ok, point made.
Hope the earlier string didn't seem too aggressive/negative - i'm still in (too?) deep here........
ETA in Rotterdam just changed to 20:00hrs. Atb
Apache: Petroatlantic eta in Rotterdam 20:30.
No. The survey started after the WD result
Apachwind. I have to agree with you there.
Afraid to say the sp is in such a pattern now that it has become a traders share through and through.
Notice the PETROATLANTIC has still not docked in Rotterdam as far as I can see.
Yes I- I think 'suggesting' is more appropriate as I do not think it is necessarily cause and effect here . The share price is reality the cause is beyond me and is reliant on so many factors it is in my opinion difficult to pin down. Can you state with certainty that if WD had been declared a discovery of similar quality to Lanacsater 6 that the share price would not be where it is today - I have been watching this for quite a while now and I would not be confident in stating that - would you?
Appreciate your answers, Carcosa, thanks.
Spirit may have paid for the drill op, but Hur have paid substantially for the failure (" failure" being delivery vs market expectation).
Thanks to all for responses.
LadySonia, I'd forgotten the Malcy interview mention - thanks.
Apachewind: WD result and resultant loss of sp/mcap not a fact? Hmm, the sp action in the two days immediately preceding, and the 10 minutes after market open immediately following the WD rns, suggest otherwise. Suggest = it was the cause; to what other possible events do you attribute the ensuing losses? Stock market share prices rely heavily on confidence - and that event made a serious dent in it.
Thanks DC, did they suvery the route from WD to the AM? I have appalling memory!
WD was chosen for a number of reasons according to the reports/presentations I have seen:
- Hurricane's Warwick licence commitments.
- The intent was for the Warwick well will be drilled below structural closure to prove flow rates for deep oil.
- The CPR stated a Fault existed between Warwick and Lincoln, potentially a sealing fault. Drilling Warwick should have demonstrated that it can 'talk to Lincoln' indicating Lincoln and Warwick share the same oil accumulation.
- The intent was to leave pressure sensors on this well to see how they responds to Lincoln and then Warwick shallow plus additional wells to be drilled in 2020 (Giving a total of 5 wells) i.e. It was designed as part of a huge area monitoring network
Seems all those plans went awry in reality due to poor porosity which was assumed to be the same as prior discoveries. At least it did not cost Hurricane to drill it.
Of the 3 drills Warwick Deep and Lincoln are the only 2 candidates for tie back to the AM. Warwick Crestal is too far away.
ADUK.... "an invention of Sir Isaac Newton, called the Force of Gravity"...He didn't invent it...he discovered it.... !
I'm going to box your ears...see me after class...
Not sure if 've missed something obvious here, but why survey the seabed between TL / LC and the AM if there was the potential of another WD?
Apologies if I've missed something blatantly obvious please do shout! :)
Maybe Spirit wanted the drill to happen early given its own situation with Centrica. Just a thought.
" I'd like to know why, as DC points out, they chose to drill WD first"
Pretty sure Dr T wanted to do that one first as it is in the middle of the 3 planned wells, that was his justification on the most recent Malcy Vid'.
11mins 20s onwards
define fact... "a thing that is known or proved to be true", or "the truth about events as opposed to interpretation"
"the fact remains that a ~$50m drill, resequenced to upend the 'banker' of LinCrest1, wiped a quarter of a billion off Hur's Mcap in one swipe," imho, replacing the words : "the fact" with something like : "it is my interpretation" may be more appropriate here.
I can't add anything technical here, 'cos I have no experience at all.
But may I just point out afaik, in the end, the problem with the well was not in the drilling ; it was that they penetrated a poorly connected part of the reservoir, and even a 1000psi drawdown only sucked out the drilling brine.
So surely the questions to be asked, and lessons to be learned, relate to pre drill imaging and planning? Unless, of course, drilling ops caused the repositioning of the H section away from the original depth, hence the preplanned section not being penetrated.
Sounds like a Dr. Seuss book title lololol
ADUK... School boy errors; believing whispers from a friend of a friend of friend, that WD was OK. To your credit you fessed up to this, albeit after the event. Is ...."from what I personally heard" possibly more whispers, do you have multiple sources ... with HUR operations ?
JayKay; while refraining from calling Hur and it's subcontracted teams names or insinuating they are not up to the job, the fact remains that a ~$50m drill, resequenced to upend the 'banker' of LinCrest1, wiped a quarter of a billion off Hur's Mcap in one swipe, while simultaneously parking a big question-mark over the even ball-park accuracy of the reservoir model. Closely following, a major shareholder sold a substantial chunk out.
Just to clarify: as a pi with some skin in this particular game - possibly more than Mr Stobie - and thus being one of the people paying Hur's BOD, I'd like to know why, as DC points out, they chose to drill WD first and what the lessons-learned are, compared to the original objectives. So far - and i appreciate it's early days, I don't see any evidence of such. Events like Hur's Jan/Feb rope issues and (appreciate not-in-context) Boeing's inability to properly V&V (Verify and Validate) their 737Max software, for just two well-known (to us) examples, lead me to wear a very circumspect Systems Engineer hat (which is proper inedible, unfortunately) when assimilating available info. I'm not stating that the co'y have frocked-up, but something went very much not-to-plan recently and I would like to know why. I'll bet Kerogen are 'in-the-know', and if it's good enough for them, it's good enough for me.
(Thanks for previous reply, a bit of balance is always a good thing.)
p.s thanks Yuyus, FS, AK, et al for all the preceding tech contributions re drilling; schools-in!
"Obviously you do have to drill in the basement (otherwise there would be no point .... lol), but I would doubt that you would be wanting to do much directional work in it."
You'd have a bloody hard time maintaining a horizontal hole without 'directional drilling'! In any non-vertical' hole, be it at 65° or horizontal, you're immediately fighting against an invention of Sir Isaac Newton, called the Force of Gravity.
(Sorry, he didn't invent the thing, just observed and interpreted it, and then gave it the name by which it's commonly known.)
"I meant to also say, I can see the point where it is felt that the well may not be horizontal at that point in time, but I would question if at TD they weren’t almost horizontal (at least in excess of 80-85 degrees).
Hence why by TD in the 12-1/4” section I thought the well would be as near as damn it horizontal."
You are correct. The 12-1/4" is the 'build-up' section, from vertical (near as dammit) to horizontal (near as dammit), if not a bit more. And if the last phrase sounds outlandish, it isn't. In many 'build-up to horizontals' and before running casing, many Directional Drillers like to build to about 92° rather than 90°, because when 'drilling out' the casing shoe and embarking on the strictly horizontal section, the bit will have a tendency to 'drop' a shade during the first 75 ft or so, until the navigational / steering assembly is sufficiently far from the casing to not be influenced by magnetic interference.
From the rumours I heard, the depth at which the casing hung up the first time, the hole angle will have been somewhere in the 45° - 60° 'window', which is always the 'awkward part', especially in terms of efficient hole -cleaning.
Also, that part of the hole is in sedimentary formations, shales and limestones, and nowhere near the 'fractured basement'.
" the simple fact the school boy error "
Whoops! I wrote too fast, before reading other posts, and have found that the above phrase came from Yuyus. Who I know for a fact DOES have decades in the field...
Nevertheless, I personally disagree with use of such a term. If a wiper trip was not performed, that will have been a decision on the part of a Responsible Person, and very likely involving discusssion with others before being actioned. It just happened to be an unwise decision.
And in some circles (particularly amongst 'majors', notably Shell), NOT making 'wiper trips' is common policy. Because 75% of the time you might get away with it. And Shell can afford to have the occasional screw-up as a result.
The actual 'drilling mechanics' at supervisory and management level are largely being overseen by Petrofac / SPD: consultants. And a lot of consultants are ex -'majors' staff, laid off since 2008 or more particularly 2014 when the 'slump' came, and the Majors laid people off to keep their OGA books balanced...
"WD doesn't go as planned, so PIs on here state as fact it's 'lots of school boy errors', 'hubris' and as a result of an ‘irrational HUR mind-set'... Conjecture at best… Distortion at worst…"
Totally agree. There one or two bad things happened during the drilling of WD of which I'm aware, but they were sorted, and had absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the well result, ie whether it was commercial or not.
'Schoolboy error' is a term not to be used in the context. This is not schoolkid's work, and yes (from what I personally heard), maybe one or two wrong decisions were made, but they'll have been CONSCIOUS DECISIONS, probably discussed 'in committee' amongst a few people. Just turned out to be the wrong ones...
One snippet I did hear (but which I've never repeated here) was a blunder, but the very fact I got to hear about it (at third hand) means it was identified and rectified, though maybe just not at the time.
Personally I might be an 'armchair driller' (ie retired), but it's not my fault, and I'd much rather be still out in the field than in the comfy chair. But people who haven't had decades in the field should be wary of using phrases like 'schoolboy errors'.
The oilpatch is awash with colourful expressions and aphorisms, and one of them goes 'If you don't screw up from time to time, it shows you're not working'.