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Just read back the last couple of days worth of posts. Seems there was plenty of discussion, fundamentals etc. Dr Trice’s vision or company fundamentals will never change, as these are purely to be a large oil player in the North Sea. The route taken To get there over the however many years, will change - it has to the same way an evolution occurs. You have to adapt to climate as well as unforeseen snags.
Also, it’s not just reentry/sidetrack or drill more wells that’s required to fix this - one could modify the topsides to accommodate water production, if it is suspected to drop off after a period of time (has been done many times before - Centrica York satellite, excessive condensate production post completion). Can’t stand too close to the problem, you might not see the solution!
Also, people... or the new small private investors (welcome) do not ever invest your money based on what you read here. Do your own research, read all the RNS’ and understand them. Read the news (time will help you understand which sites report nonsense and those that have some truth) - don’t put all your pension into a share.
I’m quoting someone else here (can’t remember who, sorry) “oilies and mining shares = get rich quick or get poor quick” not for the faint of heart.
Hopefully, this all comes good and we can all make a few bob.
As always, what I post is IMO. GLA
The thing is the people on the rig floor aren't calling the shots.... the Driller isn't the King of the Castle... they simply following instructions... more monkey, than organ grinder....
''the fundamentals haven't changed'
It's interesting that you, as an oil man - or ex-oil man - should say that."
An unfortunate fact of life. 'Once an oilman, always an oilman'. Or at least if one's spent a lifetime career doing that stuff. And even if one hasn't stepped foot on a rigfloor for five years. It's not a 'job', it's a way of life.
Rather like another saying. 'Old cavers don't die, they just smell that way'.
See you on the board of Orphans.
"I think the point is where are all the fossils that should show the transition of animals which co-habit with us today. "
Last September, for my birthday, someone who is a quite frequent correspondent here, and a shareholder, and a person who I trust 100% , sent me card through the post. On it wass a drawing of an Ammonite, with the caption 'You Old Fossil !' Which brought a huge grin to my face on that day.
The 'fossil record' remains somewhat 'patchy', but 'gaps in the record' isn't a reason to not try to intuitively try to figure out what went on in between. Some of them (like myself) just hunker down and retain a low profile....
In my living-room I have a glass case containing a whole slew of geological 'specimens' from assorted places I've travelled to, some assorted very old bones such as a cave-bear jaw (approx 15,000 years old), assorted fossils, and so on. Not to mention a watch which 'died' on me instead of myself dying, which would have been the logically correct thing really, during a very scary cave-diving incident.
But the thing I really like the best is a flint 'scraper', from the Mousterian period. Approx 35,000 years old . Give-or-take a thousand years or so. An artifact fashioned by a Neanderthal, before Cro-Magnon came on the scene. And the lovely thing is, picking it up and holding it, it fits perfectly into one's hand. Yup, if I wanted to scrape the fur off a rabbit skin, that tool would still work as well as any modern knife.
There's a lot we DON'T know.
"modern dogs evolved from a single population of wolves" HUR evolved from a single population of wolves... ?
"ADUK always respect your views but things have changed from a risk perspective. Hur only have one wheel (or should that be well) on their wagon now 3
Thank you for the compliment.
HOWEVER. I wrote 'fundamentals haven't changed'. Nothing about 'risk factor'. And yes, I'd be foolish not to agree that maybe it's stepped up a notch. But how (from an 'investment' point of view) does it compare with let's say four years ago?
Also, sorry, but Hurricane does NOT have just 'one wheel on the waggon'. 'Shutting in' 7z has just require a contro-room operator pishing a few buttons, functioning some solenoid-operated valves on the wellhead xmas tree, manifold, and the FPSO itself. It'll probably also involve a 'pigging run' to clear the flowline untill the well's re-opened, but no big deal. Won't affect 6.
The only big setback is this CV19 madness which has seemingly caused down-manning, and thus a delay in getting the ESP control system uprunning. But having just wasted half an hour of what's left of my life watching your Prime Minister on the telly, I don't reckon the CV19 scam can go on for much longer. Unless someone sends a well-aimed RPG round down Downing Street, at which point it's anyone's game.
I've posted it here before, but will do so again, because (although just opinion), I believe it to be true. The IMPORTANT bit in the RNS was that the company can no longer sustain it's forward-looking 'production target' for the year. And (obviously) is unable to publish a new one for now. Such news is self-evidently 'price-sensitive', and HAD TO BE PUBLISHED before the AGM.
The fact that this is due to having (temporarily, in my opinion) shut in 7z is secondary.
By the way, I expect a 'green box' to appear shortly after I've hit the 'send' for this post ! But if so, that poster will have wasted their time, 'cos I'm not hitting any 'unfiltered' tonight. Just watched a real comedian on the box. Unfortunately he didn't fall over with a heart attack, though by the way he looked, I was halfway expecting it.
It looks as though Dr Trice is meeting the same kind of resistance as Darwin met!
I imagine most cities of ancient civilizations haven't been excavated, but that doesn't somehow invalidate the ones that have.
The idea of evolution certainly makes a lot more sense than the one that we were around 65 million years ago, when the dinosaurs disappeared, and somehow managed to survive the meteorite-caused oblivion that wiped out the vast majority of species on earth.
You may be interested in this:
Prehistoric fossils suggest modern dogs evolved from a single population of wolves
I think the point is where are all the fossils that should show the transition of animals which co-habit with us today. There should be millions you would think - the dna evidence suggests for example dogs descend from wolves. Unfortunately there is not a single fossil it seems as yet discovered. I have no religious affiliation whatsoever and can appreciate the beauty of scientific theory when merited (of which I would include the ‘idea’ of evolution).
That said they still have to survive the rigours of scientific proof.
Well, Dr Qu, a day or two after my neighbour told me that he doesn't believe that dinosaurs existed, I saw a report about the excavation of a dinosaur thigh bone.
There was a photo of it, with a man standing at each end of it.
The bone was longer than each of the men.
I don't suppose that's the kind of evidence that would convince someone who argues that there aren't enough fossils to prove anything.
Our ancestors though that the world was spanking new and all the animals in it had been put there to provide us with food and clothing.
The Catholic Church took the argument further and insisted that everyone accept that the sun orbits the earth.
The truth is that the Earth is about 4.54 billion years old and has perhaps a billion years left.
The world was not spanking new, but well into middle age when we arrived on the scene, and most species of animal existed before we did.
Some people, whether religious or not, don't like the idea that it's not 'all about us.'
The sun is just a star and stars are dying every day, and when ours burns out, there won't even be a solar system left.
Obviously, I'm hoping finally to sell my HUR shares at a profit some time before that happens.
You did not say that, WWN.
You said, 'most objective observers'.
That means Double and I may be objective, but just don't agree with the majority.
Longwait, then all the very best I wish you and all LTHs every success. No more posts here, I have only emotional rather than financial ties with Hur and have aired enough and teased out both the risks v opportunities for investors and gamblers to make up their own minds how to act eyes wide open, may your Gods go with you :)
I think the argument moved on - the serious anti-evolutionists argue not that the fossils we have are not real but what happened to all the fossils we should be finding if Darwin was in fact correct? I only raise this as I assume we must have some folks knowledgeable in the field of geology here and I have to say this does have me scratching my head.
I did say anyone objective (ie most of the market which slashed 40%+ off the SP).
Enjoy the remainder of the BH. Stay well!
I've read it and I still don't see how the fundamentals have changed.
You're proving my point, Aqua, with your last post.
You give the impression that HUR now has only one reliable well left and that if that goes the same way as the other, then it's all over.
As far as I can see, there isn't anything wrong with either well; it's just that they are no longer working well together.
Captain, that sounds an eminently sensible suggestion as it would nail once and for all the perched v aquifer debate that helped decimate this sp whilst both wells were performing, and whilst oil prices are low, would minimise the impact of using an inferior producer
Have a look at a commonly accepted definition of what fundamentals are in the link. I think most objective observers would agree they have changed.
Aquae.. As I understand it - it is not that they have one well but two wells who don't behave well together.. Of the two well 6 is the better producer.
If they need downtime on 6 they can also run7... To be honest it might not be a bad idea to run 7 alone for a bit to try and get rid of the perched water once and for all... It may mean that the wells might behave better together again the future.
''the fundamentals haven't changed'
It's interesting that you, as an oil man - or ex-oil man - should say that.
Many of the comments I read online seem to say or imply that the fundamentals keep deteriorating.
To give one example: Lincoln Crestal was reported as a failure, which is strange when you consider that it flowed at 9,800 bopd.
Consider this headline:
'Updated: Hurricane shares sink despite oil confirmation at Warwick'
Warwick West flowed at 1,300 bopd but has been almost invariably described as a duster or failure.
Every setback has been added to the list of 'failures' in order to construct an argument that RT has got it wrong, FB does not work, HUR is an unsuccessful company that goes from bad to worse, with water cuts, a 'failed' drilling programme, and now a 'non-producing' well.
It's curious that in addition to two wells flowing continuously for 50 weeks, two out of the three wells in the drilling programme did flow, yet the programme was described as a failure, and now we hear the old questions about whether FB works and whether the oil will ever be extracted.
I still can't see any evidence that the fundamentals have changed.
ADUK always respect your views but things have changed from a risk perspective. Hur only have one wheel (or should that be well) on their wagon now and whilst it keeps trundling on, all good. But if that one well hits problems (and I hope it does not) this goes pear shaped, similarly if the well can subsequently be ramped up, 11p here you come in the shortish term. This is now a linear bet now, all or nothing, and henace my reference to the risk as well as the opportunity involved; toss a coin!
"Yes, Fracture Basement has been proven to work, but they are still novel and unpredictable, as demonstrated by Dr T's own statements re their unpredictability. First oil was Jun 19 and yet only 5 mths worth of usable data has been gathered so far "
OMG. What am id oing banging on this keyboard instaed of turning on some TV news to see if the PM's 'advisor' has been strung up from a lamp -post yet?
Guess I'm a masochist. But I prefer oilfield stuff to politics, any day.
However, I feel I must say I utterly disagree with one thing you've written. But with the usual caveat that it's only my personal opinion and interpretation of things.
"only 5 mths worth of usable data has been gathered so far "
No. Totally and utterly disagree. It's a 'misinterpretation of the message'.
ALL the data gathered so far since First Oil is without a doubt 'useable' and technically very valuable. All the way down the line. And there must be terrabytes of it by now.
The company has always said that 6 months of 'stable production' from the EPS and the Aoka Mizu would be required before firm conclusions could be drawn, regarding further financial decisions about Full Field Development. We've recently been informed that despite tanker-loads of oil having already been exported, keeping the company and the project in positive cashflow, they only consider the 'steady-state' trials to have been 'ongoing' for five months. And now, it's been found that there's some 'instability'. And so, as a result, some changes have been made. Which means, obviously, that the 'experimentation' EPS phase before making any huge decisions about FFD is going to go on for longer than previously hoped-for.
So at no point have we been lied to. Data gathered so far hasn't been hyped-up in some attempt to make a sow's ear seem like a silk purse.
Hey! I'm just going to wait 'til tomorrow. If this thing 'bounces', I'm going to sell my latest top-up at a profit. Might keep me in cigarettes and beer for a week. But if it starts 'red', I'll be charging in and topping-up again.
It's an old, well-worn and boring phrase. But 'the fundamentals haven't changed'.
Unlike many other AIM - listed O & G outfits.
Extinction Rebellion? Really? You think they would be interested in such an insignificant Company such as Hur? Really? Wow. Staggering how delusional some folk are. Truly staggering.
Responding to you before even having read more recent posts from others. Nevertheless, here goes...
"aboubleuk and cocopops.. You have both overlooked another possibility. Extinction Rebellion want North Sea oil closed down. https://theecologist.org/2019/may/21/extinction-rebellion-protests-bp-agm HUR is planning to develop a massive new field so why would it not be in their sights. Why would discussion boards be immune from their activities. Apart from the usual suspects look at those who continually belittle and undermine."
But 'extinction rebellion' is a very disparate and disorganised 'social-media' grouping, which functions as much on the premise that young people like to get together and cause mayhem as anything else. Heck ! I remember when I was like that ! But didn't attend 'demonstrations' and never liked to be involved with 'crowds'. Except at the occasional rock-music festival, of course, but usually even then I was behind the mixing-board or backstage. Same goes for my truckracing stuff.
'Extinction Rebellion' isn't Greenpeace.
Also, especially with certain CV19 issues, I don't see thousands descending on Lower Easham ! (Unless it were for a rock festival: the field just before the rickety bridge would be a fine place for one !) Nor do I see 'em going up to the cold and miserable Granite City.
No. I consider 'Extinction Rebellion' very similar to the 'Gilets Jaunes' my side of the channel. Civil disobedience, helped on by some radical factions. But disorganised. And we haven't heard a squeak out of Greta Thumsuck recently, have we?
I'll take that politician's answer as a yes then, and there in lies the problem because unless major new ii's/partner buy into this dream and provide the funding to drill new wells, then the potential of this company will never be realised.