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$26 is at 18,000 B/D though is it not?
I was curious what potential reduced B/D but higher oil price would take us to. Appreciate it's a rough calc but if 6 averages 12,150 B/D (hopeful it could be 30%+ higher) then we're at a similar (good) level as if oil price is $26 and we're producing 18,000?
Agree that refinancing would be preferential - one would imagine drilling some more producers would be a better use of that money.
Figures are $17 and $26.
But anyone that understands anything about fixed and variable costs will understand it is all ROUGHLY.
They are not straight line relationships with production (which is now changed and many other factors overheads are not fixed etc - suffice to say if the oil selling price is at $26 or thereabouts we're OK.
The bonds are somewhat meaningless in this respect as they're not repayable for 2 years, the interest on them will be included in the costs calculation. They'll be refinanced unless the company's concept fails - don't worry because if it fails the bonds are meaningless as it will be a matter of who gets the biggest share of nothing. It's (bonds) a red herring at the moment, if we get into difficulty expect the first move to be a leveraged entity to take up some bonds to block renegotiation and start shorting the company - ref POG and PMO for examples. But we are nowhere near that, they'll be plenty of signals along the road.
Apologies ;should read
If memory serves correct the $26 includes CB interest. Capital repayment is as you say.
MCB55
If memory serves correct the $27 include CB interest. Capital repayment is as you say.
"I think it's $17 without bonds or $27 with bonds (could be $26)"
$17 is opex for the AM alone.
$26 is opex plus overheads (head office, admin, etc)
The bonds will have to be paid out of cash/profits or more likely refinanced closer to the time!
I think it's $17 without bonds or $27 with bonds (could be $26)
So, from what i can calculate (please correct me if 'm wrong), with 6&7 on and producing avg 18k B/D = $486,000 (@$27) per day
Since it's just 6 now, B/D at different levels with different oil prices =
9,720 B/D @ $50 OIL = $486,000 - so we're ok
12,150 B/D @ $40 OIL = $486,000 - so we're ok
16,200 B/D @ $30 OIL = $486,000 - so we're ok
1ST post but been in HUR for 3 years so be gentle if calcs wrong but if correct makes me feel much more optimistic compared to the RNS 2 Fridays ago.
Probably dependent on how much we are producing as well as other bits and pieces. Even so even before fist oil Rt stayed we were in profit at 40 dollars a barrel
about 18USD per barrel I recall from my memory so currently its selling for about 40USD