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Cebo
Fair enuff. I'm not geologically qualified, so am only making an investor layman's judgement here. But i think pretty clearly RT's model was wrong (he may still disagree) which makes the whole thing liable to surprises at any time. The absence of any other interested parties tells me the O&G world shares that view, at least for now.
So my view of the R/R balance is that it ain't worth the candle. But we'll see.
It's more than just the oil price.
The weakness....
x1 well producing... (the one trick pony)
No forward plan (yet)
No $ raised (yet)
CA .... plans unknown
Anything else I forgot .... ?
Winnifrith stooges, pair of 'em
oil prices taking a hit explains the weakness here, certainly not company specific
........they're not Neurologists so please don't make them sound grander than they are. In your esoteric world....no one here was privy to the data sent ashore from which some decisions would have been based on. Half the time people were lead to believe it was the monkeys on the drill floor calling the shots, here's the scoop they don't .... Wireline operators, like Schlumberger....anyone see the data, no...
Walnut shells, just think of Christmas ....
If and it's a big IF, HUR somehow raised enough $ to start a new drilling campaign, would they continue with fractured basement ?
you surely mean; when aduk was king of the BS ....
As a flotation shareholder with an average of 40p I can assure these Johnny come latelys who are not oil field trained ( I have worked with RCT and am familiar with many reservoir types). Laughable that these ignorant people start talking deramping/shorting when they don’t really understand the issues. Anyway last time I posted was 5 years ago (when aduk was king of the BB). See you again in another 5 years.
Ghengis, I totally disagree - but then I would, I work in the industry, West if Shetlands (WoS), also possibly biased because I recently invested a few quid after a couple of years putting my hard earned elsewhere.
Your first point - will the reservoir continue to flow - you could say that about any producer WoS - and before anyone says its different to the rest - BP are producing from Fractured Basement Reservoirs WoS.
PS - the Mark 1 eyeball says it is currently doing just fine
Ref' having cash to pay off the bonds - this was debated in court last month and the conclusion was that there is a decent chance they will have, with multiple options to make up any shortfall if required.
Regarding Spirit and BW, I do not see Spirit sale as a concern, even if they walk away from the GWA licence, it has minimum impact - and if Spirit eventually sell out it could be positive - who knows. Bluewater -It would cost BW or their new client Hundreds of Millions of $ to redeploy the AM. The deal for the charter extention will happen soon, the terms may be interesting but I am confident it will happen soon - I may be wrong but watch this space.
The OGA/BEIS pulling the plug because of flaring consent is extremely unlikely. I suspect they may want a commitment to Flare Gas Recovery, but certainly not a show stopping elephant by any stretch of the imagination.
Squarial - They already have 2 esp's, both back operational now I believe, although natural flow at the minute will still produce 10k barrels a day - potentially more if pushed.
Still a risky share and always has been, and certainly not one that I would throw my life savings at, but maybe worth a punt ;-), maybe not.
All in my opinion.
As I said earlier....all well and good saying what a bad job the old board did. Agreed, but what would YOU do to increase market cap right now? I think a sale of the company would be high on CAs agenda. At least they have now some control over their investment. Previously they were going to lose the lot.
" I'd say someone stills see real value here" Yes , but first and foremost it will be to their interest, not yours.... CA still aren't a registered charity.
Where is all the investment $ coming from, the money tree in your back garden ... As a reminded of the cost for those who aren't aware ...
"Crystal Amber in opposition to the sanction application relies in numerous places on such alternative investment
strategies. These include drilling a new well (P8), injecting water so as to increase the rate and amount of oil produced and exploiting the Lincoln area so as to extract the oil which it is known to contain. The additional capital
expenditure that these investment strategies would require ranges from approximately US$60-80 million (for drilling a new well – with an additional US$96 million if water injection was to be undertaken) to US$700 million to
US$1 billion in relation to developing the Lincoln area. That evidence, which demonstrates the potential upside for shareholders from exploiting the Company’s assets if funding could be obtained to pursue the possible
investment opportunities, does not in my view demonstrate that the new board would, or would be likely to, divert the cash generated from the P6 well, needed to repay the Bonds, towards those other opportunities.
Unless more wells are drilled to increase the 1P and 2P its a non starter. What exactly will move the shape price? Too many People are wise to CPRs that overstate reserves.
And of course Bernstein's taken CA's stake beyond 25%. While we have seen the previous board colluding with bondholders to steal the company from the shareholders using any and all forms of insidious tactics. I'd say someone stills see real value here
Sadly not many people have truly understood the risks of fractured gneiss productivity. It is far from a normal reservoir and further water coning is highly likely which will kill the well unless an esp is used. But I discussed this 8 years ago on this BB.
'1. Will the reservoir continue to flow/ Still highly uncertain.'
Is this a serious assertion? Horse-cack more like
The only other way is to drill a new well to prove up some of the lost 1P/2P and tie back to increase production. This would allow potential RBL.
Sadly I can’t see this happening the cost of a well plus tie back has to be $60m+. There just isn’t the spare cash. A deal has to be done with the bond holders or a company sale. Can’t see i’ll recover my investment.
Good to see Genghis dropping in.
Couldn't resist a quick check in here, and see that optimism abounds.
the 2 elephants are ;
1. Will the reservoir continue to flow/ Still highly uncertain.
2. Even if it does continue at c. 10k bpd, latest figs do not show that generating enuff free cash to repay the bonds, so some solution will be needed.
There are, of course, other uncertainties over Spirit, and perhaps more seriously, Bluewater. As if that wasn't enough, I've seen no mention of the flaring consent, originally granted for 3 years only until a gas solution was found.
These are the issues ppl should be debating here, imho, not sitting around ****gng off current or previous BoD.