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Check out the Gartner hype curve....suits Hurricane well!
shutte (et al),
"Since it isn't and oil appears to be flowing, I reckon that the rumour will turn out to be correct (in that it's a massive discovery)"
I'm believing this rumour of a flare because there's one poster here whose word I trust confirming it.
The earlier 'media leak' / rumour a while back about a 'huge' find intrigued me, and got me thinking about the pressure gauges in LC. I posted, alluding vaguely to that, but didn't want to explain my thinking at the time.
However now, assuming the well is flowing OK, I can't help thinking about those gauges, and whether they're seeing any 'read-across' relating to the DST on WC. If so, it would imply that the hypothesis that Lincoln and Warwick are all the same big field, and that would be good news indeed.
Even if that's the case, I'm not sure that it'll get a mention in an eventual 'results' RNS, but one can but hope...
Genghis
The 50% didn't stop the drop on WD so should not prevent a decent rise here. The continuing doldrums of the 40's in spite of reaching production, logging (almost) 6 months of data and hopefully soon 2 successful drills under their belt should one would expect see this move.
Between now and CMD if news remains good I expect it shall.
"Mustn't grumble at 5% up"
Well, I differ. 5% up, on a rather incredible low point, back to where we were a week or so ago. the well's burning, so we can look forward to a cracking RNS in a few days time. Now, I know this I only 50% HUR owned, so so MB a BIG rise would not be expected.
BUt...success here reads across......partly nullifies the WD disappointment, and MAY, after testing, confirm Lincoln/Warwick connectivity. It may even show Linwick/Lanfax connectivity, tho that seems unlikely.
But taken together with the continuing EPS production (which the market is ignoring) and there is, imho, a serious S/value disconnect here.
We were at higher levels while the boat was in Dubai, EPS unproven, had no cash in the bank, etc, etc, etc.
At some point that disconnect will correct. And its a hell of a lot more than 5%, probably more than 50%, and possibly a hell of a lot more than that.
Ferret, was just commenting on market reaction so far.
It's all good from where I'm sitting.
Agree about a further jump on flare confirmation.
Come on Alpha - its positive until its negative. Nothing negative in that RNS, nothing even to hedge possible outcome or this small issue or that (which they would be oblige to report).
Its holding steady. thats positive - we should see this creep up over next day or so. Concrete factual news on flare will give a further kick and we should be in 50's before we know it
IF it is confirmed. Agree.
Mustn't grumble at 5% up, given that oil is down today.
Could have been 10% up on flare news if oil had been going the other way.
No flare fotos yet, mind.
SP was moving around last couple of days obviously based upon this positive news - we all know this is a bit if leaky ship when it comes to news. Remember the last well that came up a dud there was selling the days before
The RNS was very positive - referred to oil, thats the most positive i can see. The big elephant in the room now is how much commercially viable. Just wait and see, Dr T is a smart cookie
I said it will re-rate in however long once it's confirmed and the implications in respect of the model and operations are understood.
That isn't now.
Agree, but is conservative in respect of your other 'prediction'.
The market I think tends to like facts, not speculation (unless it's PI's).
However, 5.7% up isn't that conservative based solely on a flare.
The market seems to be taking a more conservative view at present.
I know you should always take rumours with a big pinch of salt, and there's probably a lot of confirmation bias in this too, but...
That recent rumour that this was a BIG find for HUR (was it 500 - 900 million barrels?), the one that prompted HUR to issue an RNS - well if that was just totally made up then there was a 50/50 chance that could have been instantly dismissed if this was a duster.
Since it isn't and oil appears to be flowing, I reckon that the rumour will turn out to be correct (in that it's a massive discovery), that it will be a viable well, and that the SP will re-rate dramatically over the next however long when that is confirmed and it's implications for the HUR model and operations.
I might be totally wrong, but got a good gut feeling at the minute.