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'Make your own minds up - but don't tell me that you're not getting that gut feeling that SOMETHING isn't right - even if you can't pin it down precisely.'
I can pin it down precisely: the only thing that isn't right is that some posters have convinced themselves and others that there is something wrong with HUR.
Rational posters have looked at the evidence and concluded there is nothing known by anyone to be wrong.
I quoted a post from UKOG yesterday - and it wasn't the only one rubbishing HUR and jeering its loyal followers for their supposed gullibility.
Posters there are predicting that HUR will fold up in the next year or two.
I suppose they got that idea from a gut feeling that somehow is more reliable than HUR RNSs.
That's another thing that's wrong - it's akin to character assassination.
Shutts
You've done the right thing for you. I agree with Captain Swag - there is definitely something going on and my gut feeling tells me it's good. Either way we're both making the right decision in order to sleep at night!
CaptainSwag - time will reveal all.
As I said I sold out because I'm not prepared to take that level of risk
Whether HUR flies or dies I have still turned my paper loss into a real one, so it makes no difference to me which way it goes - it will not affect the size of my loss.
So I hope you are right and I am wrong and you do very well.
I've made my choice, I am responsible for it, and either way I've lost money - and that's down to me and me alone.
GLA
Shuttts "Turned out he'd either bought some bogus title, or changes his name to include Sir - forget which , at which point I sold out immediately."
Reminds me of the spoof Monty Python advert where "Mr Arthur ***** wishes it to be known he has changed his name by deed pole, he will hereby be known as Mr Art *****"; not too sure of the relevance to our own good Doctor though who seems very down to earth and conservative
i am not getting that gut feeling something isn't right.
my gut feeling is that something is going very well. however some people will make a lot of money out of the last week - and some will have lost a lot. and some will have a lot more gray hairs.
In summary:
I can't give you any specific facts why I now think HUR isn't going to be the wonder company we all hoped it would be, it's more of a gut feeling, but you should ALWAYS listen to your gut, because what it really is, is your subconscious SCREAMING at you to pay attention.
I'm quite long in the tooth and have seen this kind of AIM stock before, where evrything looks amazing, but the underlying real data doesn't support it.
One great example was RCG. I bought into them, made a lot of money, but got a bit concerned because they couldn't give any data of where their amazing biometrically secure laptops were being sold - so you couldn't go and see one, because they wouldn't tell you where they were being sold.
But... sales were great.
Then the CEO Dr Raymond Chow suddenly started referring to himself as Dr Sir Raymond Chow - I asked when was he knighted - what's going on?
Turned out he'd either bought some bogus title, or changes his name to include Sir - forget which , at which point I sold out immediately.
Other investors wanted to believe the story - "so what if he bought a title, so what if he's now calling himself "sir" when it isn't real?"
Well if he's some kind of Walter Mitty character who is lying about this - what else is he lying about?
Of course RCG turned out to be a disaster for investors and went the way that many wild-west AIM stocks go.
But that gut feeling that something isn't plum here - was well worth listening to.
If everything is great there's no need to lie or hide the truth.
The only time you need to stretch the truth is when the facts are your enemy.
Make your own minds up - but don't tell me that you're not getting that gut feeling that SOMETHING isn't right - even if you can't pin it down precisely.
Anyway, GLA.
Chapeau shutts ... ....or, as they say in Italy; complimenti
He said:
"people come to me all of the time with ideas and business plans and tell me how much I can make if I back them. I'm not interested in how much I can make - I'm interested in how much I can lose."
Yes if I'm wrong now I will miss some upside. But if I stick with it and are wrong - I could lose everything.
It's not a risk I'm willing to take.
By Albi: "Longwait
"What changed Shutt's mind?"
I think Shutts himself posted his concerns. My view is had this board not been polluted with endless doubt, doom and gloom he may have held. Would that have been the right thing to do? I read the Art of Execution on the recommendation of other posters and one piece of advice stayed with me - those who cut their losses at 15%, statistically lost less and profited more than those who didn't. So in that sense I respect his decision to make a decision. I made this decision a while ago because I'm not great at trading and didn't buy in here at low prices (44p was my average). I cut my investment by 75% in the summer because I was overextended. That was the right decision for me as I can now relax to some extent (a great deal more than I could before) having profited from and made other investments in the interim in addition to Hurricane."
Correct on all fronts Albi, so full marks and hats off to you.
My final decision to sell was based on the art of execution, which observes that people can fall in love with a share, and be so over confident of their own assessment that they hold a share all the way to zero.
However, I didn't sell at -15% (wish I did), but at -33%, which is not so great since it means you have to make +50% from what you have left to get back to where you started.
My issues are that maybe I made a mistake - I mean it all looks great on paper - oil flowing, Dr.T seeming happy, etc, etc, etc.
The problem for me in a nutshell came from a) the SP hardly moving upwards on good news, b) the share price getting hammered on (what was on the face of it) not such bad news, c) the ambiguity of the BoD in RNS's (so while I want to believe nothing is wrong, this is AIM and we've all seen the disaster stories - so MAYBE the ambiguity is because specificity would create a disaster, d) the rush to quell good rumours, while e) nothing to quell bad rumours.
It's very common for companies to issue an RNS saying "we know no reason for the recent/sudden SP weakness" - but there's nothing, which MAY suggest they know there IS a reason for the current SP weakness but they don't want to say it.
Overall it's down to risk - do I want to continue believing in the story and my own initial assessment, or do I want to acknowledge that I am not infallible, that I might have made a mistake, and that there could indeed be a reason (that we don't know) for the SP getting hammered?
So it comes down to either having blind faith and an overconfidence in my own initial beliefs, or the ability to say "maybe I was wrong" and maybe there is something to justify the SP.
I believed this was all good and would come good, but the current share price contradicts my initial opinion.
So at -33% (the absolute mathematical limit of my faith) I have to step out of it in case I am wrong.
It reminds me of an interview Alan Whicker did years ago with a multi-millionaire entrepreneur that I saw and has alway
Longwait
"What changed Shutt's mind?"
I think Shutts himself posted his concerns. My view is had this board not been polluted with endless doubt, doom and gloom he may have held. Would that have been the right thing to do? I read the Art of Execution on the recommendation of other posters and one piece of advice stayed with me - those who cut their losses at 15%, statistically lost less and profited more than those who didn't. So in that sense I respect his decision to make a decision. I made this decision a while ago because I'm not great at trading and didn't buy in here at low prices (44p was my average). I cut my investment by 75% in the summer because I was overextended. That was the right decision for me as I can now relax to some extent (a great deal more than I could before) having profited from and made other investments in the interim in addition to Hurricane.
Okay.
I take back my remark.
I've just looked at his early posts on HUR:
'If you held HUR on Friday with no hydrocarbons having been brought to the surface, why on earth would you sell today with this news?
If it was a hold on Friday how on earth can it be a sell today?
People are mad, no logic at all just knee jerk madness.'
'It's not that long ago it was 55p and we had no oil out the ground.
You'd think that since we're taking positive steps towards a money making oil producing company that 55p would not be beyond the realms of possibility.
In fact if it could be worth 55p then, it surely has to be worth more than that now.'.
(13 May 2019, 50.5p)
So somebrokers have said c.£3.50 possibly - what if the amount of oil in the ground is way more (i.e. more than2x) predicted, and the amount that can be recovered is higher, and the barrels per day is higher ...
I ask because Dr T seems to be one of those people you could put your life in his hands and not need to worry.
And the conservative estimates, etc - he's not trying to over egg the pudding but play it right down.Which is a great sign?
(22 May 2019, 58.5p)
When first oil is announced 30 May 2019 10:55
How much do you think the SP will jump up on that day?
10p?
(30 May 2019, 60.8p)
Didn't think it would happen so soon, but hey - £some per share is looking probable.
Espacially once (if) Foil is announced.
(2 June, c. 58p)
I'm not so worried by what it does today SP wise since I'm in it for the long haul - but I'd have thought it'd be a bit higher than 62.
(5 June, 56p)
"In the short term the stock market is a voting machine, in the long term it's a weighing machine".
(1 July)
What changed shuttts' mind?
Manwell,
Re: 'Spirit will 100% become operator. They will drill in GWA every summer months for 4 years starting 2021.'
Drilling 3 wells next year 2020 in the GWA, have a look on HUR website in Reports,
Longwait
I've read Shutt's posting history. He seems to have been as optimistic as anyone else here. If he needs to protect his capital at this point and can't afford the ups and downs or finds the risk unappealing - fair play - if that were the end of it. Maybe he is projecting his own fears? That's human. Will be very interesting to review all this in a year's time given that none of us are actually clairvoyant. My hope and wish is Hurricane indeed blow everyone out of the 'water'!
You're not a genuine poster, shuttts.
No genuine poster would make a remark like that.
You're just a scaremonger.
RNS tomorrow or Friday and another 30-40% off the share price.
GLA
Spirit will 100% become operator. They will drill in GWA every summer months for 4 years starting 2021.
HUR will be drilling back at GLA in February for 8 months +/- using PBLJ
Jhaylock....your 'feelings' make no sense to me. The cost of Spirit pulling out would greatly increase the HUR cash position. The obvious route then would be proceed with more drillings on Lancaster, whilst continuing with the other preparations towards 40,000 bpd. If you read and understand the 29th Nov document to which I linked earlier, you will find where the gold is. Meanwhile I have continued buying today.
Spirit farmed into the GWA in September 2018, taking on a 50% working interest.
At the time, Spirit said the aim was to progress Lincoln and Warwick towards full field development, should the well campaign and further tests be successful.
Spirit would take over as licence operator at the development stage.
A spokeswoman for Spirit said that intention had not changed and that the company still planned to “move towards” becoming operator.
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/213209/hurricane-makes-discovery-at-warwick-west-but-more-technical-analysis-required/
I have been in hurricane many years and seen this drift down before, my feeling is that Spirit Energy are pulling out and Hurricane are going it alone with the Lincoln tie back, there is a placing so that the time table can be met by Hurricane. Just a theory on my part, but if true will only be a small bump in the road for long term investors. GLA
jhaylock