George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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CaptnS "poor sentiment and fear" ... have to say there's plenty of it about
i seem to remember well 6 flowed naturally at 16500 in the beginning.. so if the eps was working you would hope they could be back up to 20k at least.
As dive says there will be a period where production is substantially lower which is why the year prediction was suspended...to be fair to hur they are usually conservative...i am betting trice is hurting at the moment so will be doing his best to get production up safely....
as for the new shorters yesterday- i think they are gambling on poor sentiment and fear - have to say very risky....
From the chart on page 15 of this April's Cap Mkts Day we can see that they ran the 6 Well on its own for a few days at over 16,000 bopd
Also nice in the 15th Sept 2014 RNS :- Post-Well Analysis: Lancaster Appraisal Well 205/21a-6 that it says:
ยท Data from this well indicates that under production conditions and a moderate 120 psi drawdown the basement reservoir could deliver 20,000 STB/d from a single well.
Yes, indeed, DC.
I got it wrong.
It could be that average production for the year may not be very far below previous estimates.
If so, the current share price is all the more difficult to comprehend.
Longwait
This is the relevant paragraph:
"The Lancaster EPS is currently producing from the 205/21a-6 well at a rate of approximately 10,300 bopd. The Company plans to increase this rate incrementally, to determine its maximum sustainable level. This process will result in a period of production substantially below forward guidance of net 18,000 bopd and Hurricane is therefore suspending previous full year guidance of net 17,000 bopd. Production has averaged 15,500 bopd year to date."
The length of the period of production below guidance is not specified and should not be read as meaning the whole of 2020.
OGA monthly reports and tanker offloads will provide information on the extent of the incremental ramp up.
I recall HUR's RNS stating that the average production rate for 2020 will be significantly less than 18 kbopd.
That implies that they don't expect to be able to produce 18 kbopd again for some time.
Let's hope they are being conservative.
I think it is just a matter of mobilising a couple of specialist ESP technicians (when covid restrictions are lifted) to function test the as installed control loops and then start up the ESP's, a week or so's work IMHO!
Maybe Dr T wants to see the max stable flow without ESP's first, which I am sure they are currently doing.
Thanks for the info people, from my experience the VSD's will have been build in the factory and shipped out to the installation to be installed and then commissioned, all the electrical installation and commissioning is done separate. I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have carried out these works.
If they haven't been run for a long period of time as they haven't been required, then they will no doubt need to be rec-checked/recommissioned before use. In this case the hold up may be not being able to get an appropriate contractor on the vessel to carry out these works.
So in reality this could be quite easily be back up to full production? Thanks
If I recollect restricted flow on the stem test with pump was over 14k bopd so headline rates could be interesting
I have a hard time listening to the stories about ESP commissioning. Fact is, every set I have ever seen, the VSD (variable speed drive) units and the pumps are always fully tested before being crated and sent off to the job site. You cannot afford to run the risk of major equipment design or quality issues when the kit arrives off shore. The logistics of addressing any serious issues when the units are offshore and subsea means we do everything possible to ensure trouble free start up off shore. Ofcourse, the actual conditions off shore are different to any on shore testing. But fundamentally, the kit is never sent off shore without us being 100% certain it's going to work. Off shore set up and commissioning, whilst extremely important to do it safely, isn't the huge technical issue some would have us believe. It simply isn't. Full stop. Why haven't they started them up yet then? Presumably, the wells have been flowed quite satsfactorily against chokes flowing under natural well pressure. I guess to date, they haven't needed them.
the VSD's (electrical power supply, (i.e. pump speed/rate) management systems are apparently the bit that has not been commissioned - this is on the ship topsides.
gla
Boris, I'm no expert, but ESPs are already part of the Lancaster subsurface installation - they just haven't been commissioned yet for reasons that are currently unknown (by me at least)
Do any experts know if it would be feasible to put submersible pumps down the wells 6&7 to generate the required 20kbopd, I noticed in the broker note it was mentioned that they have been unable to for Covid 19 reasons. If it was pumped out rather than natural flow then would it still have the same interference?
Apologies is this is a silly question, i'm not a petrophysicist.
Thanks GLA