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Why? If they meet the lower end of the production. forecast then they will be loss making @ $40 in either December or January with any successful intervention at least 6 months away.
I think the markets found fair value for now until further production trends are published.
Unfortunately it’s my personal belief that Well 7z is now as dead as the Dodo and Well 6 will join it in H1 2021.
Please do your own research I could be wrong
So apparently now we have a 25p RBC HUR PT here, whether 11p or 25p PT, both still represent massive upsides here going forward.
HUR "Fair Value" today is higher than £0.11 in my opinion, particularly if we get a bid in this year which at these way undervalued trading levels is looking likely.
Ngms 'The evidence from Vietnam is that water injection isn’t economic on existing FB fields with water cut greater than 20%'
Question for the 'expert' - are all conventional fields the same?
You seem to assume all fractured basement fields are the same
ngms27,
what?
That's not the explanation to a shallower OWC with production!
Stop making statements if you can't provide explanation for it..
Point, Evidence, Explanation.
You're lacking Explanation.
Slift.
One of the Worlds leading experts said the water was perched.
RPS consulting agreed more or less with HURs OWC
Both were wrong and HUR are wrong again.
A water injector alone will not provide any meaningful fix.
The new CEO’s old company have abandoned water injection on a FB reservoir because the wells have high water cut...
The evidence from Vietnam is that water injection isn’t economic on existing FB fields with water cut greater than 20%
You believe if you want to, I don’t.
NGMS - i respect your technical knowledge, but HUR employ multiple FB specialists and use external consultants and the new CEO is a FB specialist...so if they say a water injector is their best bet for now, surely they would've considered where well 6 will be in H2 2020 before saying that spending 75 million on one is their best bet?
ngms27,
I quote from you:
"This is because OWC has gotten shallower with production and coning can work to approx 120m from the well bore in this reservoir."
Based on your quote, why do you think the OWC has gotten shallower with production? (Yes, it has, but just want to hear your explanation).
Hopefully, your own answer can provide you with insights to explain why adding more water to a reservoir MAY fix the issue.
Slift.
Slift, there is no way adding more water to a reservoir will fix an issue whereby a well that is coning oil from above and is thus below OWC.
A water injector also won’t save well 6 as by the time it’s implemented existing water cut on well 6 will be too high to make any realistic impact given 10000 bopd are required for break even.
My confidence level is 99.99% on this.
He makes a lot of noise... A broken clock is right twice a day...
On a factual note, anything more than around 200,000 shares now requires a premium to the ask...
Not seen that since Friday for such a small amount. I think the worm is turning here.
ngms27,
"A water injector in Q2 won’t save well 6 and 7z is now dead as a producer.
I don't believe you can make this statement. There is a chance that water injector may be able to save BOTH wells. Obviously there is uncertainty due to the complex reservoirs, but your statement whilst MAY be true, it MAY not be.
Slift.
Looking good Brent ticking up again this afternoon currently another 1.37% up at $42.80
What experience do you have?
Finally we agreed on something. Yes, they may need a new producer on top of a WI. But they made 170m in 7 mths turnover . So poo recovery should allow them to invest...if supported by the big shareholders.
CBs wont get their money back UNLESS they allow investment either so all are caught between a rock and hard place.
I agree no going concern issue due to cash in the bank, but whether bond holders will sit still and let the company run down that cash and put bond capital at greater risk is entirely a different matter.
HUR to date have refused to publish covenants relating to the Convertibles. I wonder what’s in there?
No agenda just transparency. Do the maths on the guidance, anyone with a low grade GCSE shouldn’t struggle.
They might get to 20k bopd in Q3 2021 but that won’t be with just $70m spent. It will need new producers not just WI.
A water injector in Q2 won’t save well 6 and 7z is now dead as a producer.
What experience has the Hamman Analyst got? Brokers try to sell product and always over egg the cookie. I’ve got 25 years experience in this sector as an independent investor and know how to read what company’s are saying and more importantly what they are not saying.
You deffo have an agenda NGMS. Neither the co. or analysts think there is a going concern issue until 2022......
They expect to be producing upwards of 10ks / day up until H21 (source: HUR/ Beverley 12/09) and after that remediation measures. Hannam note suggests production could get back up to 15ks- 20ks Q3 or so... with water injector
Care to share your calcs ?
No intervention measure will take affect until H2 2021 even if successful.
Low case scenario using HURs own data they are loss making sometime in December 2020. That could be 7 or 8 months with available cash dwindling or will the bond holders petition for bankruptcy in that case? They will certainly want something and it’s likely to involve current equity pain.
HUR's own guidance is fine....i don't dispute it will decline over time...most oil wells do globally. I dispute the assertion it will be uneconomic, as i'm expecting higher POO in 2021. Plus remediation measures.
Bransonbull, no agenda all I've done is present HURs own guidance in a way that shows how they believe well 6 will decline over H2.
Like I said you can't handle the truth.
You mean good times past already? You have lost 90% reserves.. which fairly was priced at 5-6p :))
I've been researching HUR for some time and now post the recent huge unjustified drop on 11th have decided to join in here, so cashing out of my PM shares slowly and pouring it in HUR over the next few days/week which in my opinion is now seriously undervalued and ripe for breakout with massive upside potential here overtime. Just want to also wish all the HUR LTH here all the best of luck moving forward, I am confident we'll come back on top here in a relatively short time.
H1 2020 - 89 M USD revenue but lower production of av. 13,700 H2 2019 - 7 mnths of production only yielded 170m USD...so POO and higher av. barrels will compensate...for lower production...
AV. price sold was 30USD in H1, it's going to be much higher in H2