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FS22,
" by Tuesday no one will be interested anyhow!"
Hey! You were writing 'tick-tock' and '18 hours' on Thursday, and nothing exceptional happened on Friday morning.
Now you're saying it'll be Tuesday morning, so we'll wait and see. ('Cept I doubt I'll be up before midday.)
And by the way, I have absolutely no criticism of the trajectories of the two Lancaster wells, which as you say were designed to optimise data-gathering and 'interference'. But the thing is, a lot of us here have known that for years already, but have never heard this 'fork-pattern' phrase before. It's not included in any HUR documentation of which I'm aware.
I am looking forward to the reply AD, will answer lots of questions I've been asking (internally!). However, don't you read? It was proposed earlier the EF was an egg fryer. At least they'll need a bit of oil for that ;-)
‘=> EPS production data will be used to appraisal extent of Lancaster field...‘
AUK,
Let’s deal one by one, by Tuesday no one will be interested anyhow! RPS GLA CPR stated quite clear that because the current wells are so well connected that the extent of Lancaster Field can be ‘appraised’ by utilising the production data (from these ‘bad’ idea fork pattern wells according to you and ADVFN BB) - cumulative volumes and pressure data. Therefore no need to do appraisal drilling elsewhere in Lancaster before deciding to commit to FFD. No need to appraise Lancaster Contingent Resources and go straight to drilling producers delivering Reserves.
Comprehend?
Oh dam. I wish I knew what the 'send' shortcut key was, so I could cover it up. Let's start again.
FS22,
The other day, Misdosh posted a link to a financial article, much of which I didn't understand. Full of obscure and (I suspect) meaningless jargon, meant to make the author sound knowledgable, when if fact it was just hot air.
Now that wasn't dear Missdosh's fault, because she didn't write the article. But you, I believe, are doing it deliberately.
"=> EPS production data will be used to appraisal extent of Lancaster field... Further 'experimentation' = 'out' trigger, post WD."
Can you translate that into English that can be understood here, please? Preferably without the mathematical symbols that you like to use as punctuation, but may leave some people (myself included) a bit baffled, as they don't seem to fit any context.
" you are obviously not happy with the Cat. He is doing a great job on Lancaster RE. "
Who is 'the Cat', please? And what is Lancaster RE?
" so if EF needs a refill - >5300 BOPD should be the expected test rate - geology, we have been assured is same as Lancaster, with LC horizontal being drilled towards the near vertical Lincoln exploration well. EF only few hours away now"
I think the EF refers to the new supply boat. But what's her presence got to do with geological similarities between Lancaster and Lincoln, and the possible DST flowrates?
Yrs,
A drunken gambling bum (supposedly) who obviously will have to try and re-learn everything he thought he knew about oilwell drilling, but seemingly didn't.
FS22,
The other day, Misdosh posted a link to a financial article, much of which I didn't understand. Full of obscure and
FS22,
I think you ought to re-read the ES.
" Information of AM hydrocyclones and efficiency at low oil cut"
...Low WATER cut.
AUK,
you seems only poster mentioning 'Experts' on this BB - did copy you Black Swan reference so you can see what he thinks about 'experts'. Information of AM hydrocyclones and efficiency at low oil cut was in EPS Environmental Statement report 2017; along with Lyon FPSO.
RPS GLA report also clearly stated first objective of EPS is:
1.Provide long term production data to confirm (a) productivity and (b) extent of the Lancaster FB reservoir to enable Full Field Development planning and sanction.
=> EPS production data will be used to appraisal extent of Lancaster field, not drilling more appraisal wells (ie more experimentation) - particularly below structural closure. Further 'experimentation' = 'out' trigger, post WD.
Your dislike of fork producers - ie drilling where you know the oil is commercially connected to main fracture system, has led to one of the most successful EPS operations that my 'limited memory' can remember! -- yet you are obviously not happy with the Cat. He is doing a great job on Lancaster RE. Are your forks mixed up with your spoons?
Re. LC, rates, 7Z encountered 13 fault zones (RPS GLA Report) so if EF needs a refill - >5300 BOPD should be the expected test rate - geology, we have been assured is same as Lancaster, with LC horizontal being drilled towards the near vertical Lincoln exploration well. EF only few hours away now.
Enjoy the SP rise next week - and lose the 'Expert' stuff, there are no exact FB WoS analogs, everyone is learning by experience - rest is in black and white thanks to HE reports etal.
Adoubleuk,
Many thanks for your kind, courteous, and informative response. Most helpful, and a standard of contribution and debate which I hope will long continue across this board from all contributors .
It is sometimes not easy ( at my age particularly ) to accurately memorise and reccollect the full depth and breadth of all the activity, when all one is actually seeking is increasing and positive activity in the SP - long overdue.
HUR is after all an explorer ( albeit now a fresher producer ) and I would surmise that at some not overdistant future date, one of the major producers will take a serious interest in acquiring HUR's assets ( at a decent price ). My view of the assets may be regarded as over-optimistic by some, but my own logical assessment tells me that they are seriously undervalued.
Lincon Crestal, I hope, will soon re-establish that value.
tiggerman,
Your post is reasonable, but too long to comment on in depth. However, I think your viewpoint is the same held by many PI's here. Just a couple of bits I'd remark on, as a fellow PI, and with a certain amount of 'oily knowledge'.
" Warwick area second drill - Lincoln Crestal ( 50% owned ) is on the cusp of a promising discovery, and should oil be present , is it reasonable that from a close and very similar fractured granite rock, ( even connected ) it could well produce similar flows to Lancaster"
I assume you meant that as a question? To which the answer is 'Yes'. It's why we're waiting so closely on a result from Lincoln. However, to qualify this (and please remember, this is personal opinion only), should Lincoln test successfully, I don't expect the flowrates to be quite the same as Lancaster, which are quite honestly phenomenal. But if Lincoln only comes in at 5000 bbl/day, that's still an exceedingly good oilwell.
Also (very important), we know already that oil is present in large quantities on Lincoln. It won't be a 'discovery', that's already been done. The current drilling with its soon-to-happen DST testing is to establish whether the oil can be extracted at commercially viable rates.
..."and also have a second fork well drilled as well"
I fear you've been misled here (this BB) by reading stuff by other posters purporting to be 'experts', but who aren't. Please take it from me that the term 'fork well' is technically meaningless, unless one's talking about a hungry oilman tucking into his supper! Those misleading posts referred to the two (now producing) Lancaster wells which head off in opposite directions. However there was a two-year gap between them being drilled, and although being 'related', ar two distinctly different 'constructs', even though the wellheads are only 30 meters apart.
In the future, when / if Full Field Development takes place, it's possible that a number of wells will be drilled in different directions via a subsea 'template', a unitary way of linking a number of welheads in a very close-together spot, with 'shared' mechanical parts.
Or maybe not. Due to the geomorphology, the 'go-ahead' may involve separate individual wellheads some hundreds of metres apart, linked by pipelines and umbilicals to a common manifold.
But all that's in the future.
I too remain optimistic!
"Then of course, as still yet unaccounted for, the massive reserves within the Rona Ridge Licence area and Halifax, Whirlwind and Strathmore potential, to which it is as yet impossible to apply any accurate forecasts. But fractured granite basements in this area have demonstrated what they can produce ( so far ), and the chance / opportunity for success within the area is high."
Yes. Though let's forget Strathmore, which is 'conventional', not Fractured Basement, and which the company is maybe only hanging onto as a bargaining chip in any discussions with Premier, whose Solan field it adjoins.
I am not an engineer, an oily, or an accountant, but I was drawn into investing in HUR by Dr. Robert Tices convictions about oil in N.sea fractured granite basements.
Earlier this year , this was initially proved up when the two Lancaster wells came on stream, and whilst still in a period of flow and various other checks, they have seemingly produced three offloads which tie in with the wells ability to annually
flow 17000 bopd net. And possibly even better.
My simple maths tells me that this amounts to - say - 6,190,000 bop annum converting from gross Brent $60 per bo, to net $40 per bo - say $ 250,000,000 net cash flow in a full year. Not at all bad.
Therefore in a full year EPS would be approx 12 cents or 10p EPS ( HUR EPS for year 2018 3.11p ) . Lancaster performance alone makes the shares look dirt cheap.
Warwick Deep ( 50% owned ) was a non starter albeit there may be some future in it as I understand. Warwick area second drill - Lincoln Crestal ( 50% owned ) is on the cusp of a promising discovery, and should oil be present , is it reasonable
that from a close and very similar fractured granite rock, ( even connected ) it could well produce similar flows to Lancaster,- and also have a second fork well drilled as well.( another possible 17,000 bopd in due course.
The same argument would also apply to the third Warwick Area, 50% Spirit Oil drill later this year
There is also the strong possibility of connection of gas flows to the shore pipeline which would produce additional £ cash flow ??.
All of this makes the HUR Market Cap ( £853M ) look tiny and the SP look even more dirt cheap.
Then of course, as still yet unaccounted for, the massive reserves within the Rona Ridge Licence area and Halifax, Whirlwind and Strathmore potential, to which it is as yet impossible to apply any accurate forecasts. But fractured granite basements in this area have demonstrated what they can produce ( so far ), and the chance / opportunity for success within the area is high.
Should Lincoln Crestal strike with any comparable force to Lancaster, then surely this SP shlould start to rock and roll
I remain as ever optimistic, but would be pleased to have either critical or approving comment. AS I said earlier, oil exploration is not my field. Only hope.