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I think all of this is a lot simpler than things being priced in, etc... namely, that things aren't priced in. I don't believe the market is very efficient at all for small cap AIM stocks like this one. I believe it will be the midyear report (or maybe next annual report) when people begin to take notice.
Look at the woeful analysis by the so called analysts currently: They're using out of date data and have priced Hurricane Energy at 9p!
Seems to be very hard to move above this level.
I bought 150000 shares @ 1.57. I have sold half @ 11.25 and the remaining I am happy to sell @ 15 or above. So if we have a price guest for 1st August then mine is .......................15p gla and stay safe.
eskibeatbeater - I agree, the overriding factor isn't paying off the bonds, as this is already priced in to many models. It's the probability to a significant rise of poo in Summer which will make the company more attractive..
Maris and co**
The chances of those prices are declining in my eyes until a forward plan. Its a given that debt repayment has been priced in. I can only now see this increasing as of thr AGM if the desired is announced and marks and Co are sent of the plank. At that point, maybe 15p.
I had hoped for a higher increase prior to now based on the debt repayment and some movement already regarding a forward plan.
Too many variables to give a single figure so here's my take.
Current fair value 21.4p
Under current trajectory and no changes decided/announced at AGM I put the share price at **14.40** on 1st August
With a change of CEO/CFO 17.20
With a forward plan 17.90
with both a change of CEO/CFO and forward plan 19.6
with a resignation/vote to remove of the CEO/CFO at AGM without a replacement 3p when AIM suspension kicks in and I will be gone way before it hits that figure.
Potential takeover bid 23.6p if no significant changes other than what is already known.
17p
Euston2283 - "Sense and Simple get the handbags out again. "
No handbags, if you read the posts just a pleasant 'guess the share value on 1st August' game. You can join in if you wish. I will be giving my estimate a little later. Mariog has already given his estimate. if it turns into something else I won't be taking the bait.
Sense and Simple get the handbags out again. It's getting boring now guys! Go fight in another place.
RNS you would never want Maris as a drinking buddy or after dinner speaker or be his dentist. Hope the AGM can alter communication.
9.00am Mon Aug 1st - gives an hour for market to open and settle down
Just to clarify the date, July 31st is a Sunday.
Regarding being the most disliked poster I think I have explained the fact I'm here, isn't to garnish any brownie points, or even make friends. If anything I do post in here is found to be useful to someone then all to the good, but if its not, then I'm sure they will find something of use from another poster. I'm just here to both gain and share information in the hope it will improve my investment in the share. Anything outside of that is just noise. The biggest giggle of the day came from you when you posted quote, "it's put yer money where yer mouth is time!!". The fact I have 143,658 shares in Hurricane suggests I have already 'put my money where my mouth is'. That's an increase of 113,200 shares since joining this forum one month ago to the date.
senseman - Not a clue off hand until I have done the maths. I try not to make guestimates when I can, as there are many variables attached. I will write an algorithm and punch in the numbers based on current trajectory under best case scenario and get back to you. The biggest hurdle is knowing what is going to take place during the AGM. There appears to be many on this board that would like the CEO/CFO gone but then we here they are potentially being paid a handsome uplift in the hope of them staying put so who knows really what the future will hold. On the other hand if they are to be replaced the question is who by, their experience and qualifications and how are they viewed within the industry and finally, the biggest question of all. Is there a forward plan or is the idea just to be a cash cow until the well is no longer commercially viable.. Currently all I know is what fair value is at the current time and what my intended exit price will be. I do know that my holding should be around another 125,000 higher by then if the price stays sub 10p and the proverbial doesn't hit the fan. I will give you my estimate tomorrow.
patience, all. let's all keep stumm and let simples put his best foot forward first...
14.84
ok simples. since it's quiet time. congrats from all on your degree in stating the bl**ding obvious, and now fair chance to recover from being most disliked poster. it's put yer money where yer mouth is time!! in your great wisdom, what do you think SP will be july 31st. ie. post 2 more offloads, bonds & AGM gone? you post what you think, then we'll all chip in with our best guestimates. so, simples, what do you think SP will be july 31st?
On a technical stand point, the longer we linger below and fail to break the 10.20 mark is not good. So, fingers crossed some plan and direction is released soon.
"The present trading patterns and spread are being carefully groomed ensure that it is "unable to break 10p "
It broke 10p yesterday then fell back. The trading patterns I have noticed over the last few months all suggest day traders taking advantage of a share stuck between a rock and a hard place with a company with no real direction. Until that direction is made know the share will continue to bounce back and forth as it has been doing. To suggest 'market abuse' you will need more evidence than a few days trading, especially as the share has increased in value by 148.42% since 1st January 2022.
Market Abuse: The FSA; see:- https://commoditieslawandregulation.wordpress.com/2011/06/06/market-abuse-the-fsa/
The present trading patterns and spread are being carefully groomed ensure that it is "unable to break 10p "!
Johns - I didn't see any breach in forum rules so no need to report. If you want to use a particular source as your point of reference and wish to share it with others then why would there be a problem. Obviously, as your question was with regards to acquisitions it probably wasn't found in that book so will point you to another in the series you rely on. I haven't seen it myself but if you haven't already got in in your library, maybe there is a gap awaiting its arrival.
https://www.dummies.com/article/business-careers-money/business/mergers-acquisitions/mergers-acquisitions-for-dummies-cheat-sheet-208649/
Thanks Sense, I treat people how they treat me...
I wasn't sure if Simples was being passive aggressive to get a rise out of me so as I would react and start ****ging him then he can have my posts removed as my suggestion about bondholders and CEO doesn't fit into his agenda or if I'm wrong and there is no agenda Simples is a passive aggressive trouble maker of massive proportion.
Love the drollness, Johny. Shame planks don't do humour