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dspp
"This explains the scatterplot result "
Good. Like most here I respect your knowledge and expertise, but I have to make the point that your analysis was plain wrong, and may have panicked a few people. I know you hedged the analysis by leaving open "other possibilities" , but in the end your analysis produced a false hypothesis.
"This does not put to bed the water issue, "
I would suggest that for the time being, it absolutely does. HUR are stating this is perched water based on temperature and production behaviour ; Ok, they haven't published data, but what company does publish technical details like that to its shareholders? HUR's word is good enough for me on that one. The only sense in which the water issue has not been "put to bed" is that coning could occur in the future, which could be said about every well ever drilled.
I'm sorry to say this, bcos we all know you have a deep knowledge, and post some very detailed, informative, and sensible stuff. But come on, drop the caveats, and just admit you called this one wrong.
dspp - i agree with buy. Apology accepted.
Apology accepted.
This does not put to bed the water issue, though it does partially explain it. The wet well has been going to 25-30% watercut, which explains why the monthly blended average from the (3-month dated) OGA data has reached 8% or so. This means an initial watercut of (from memory) 8% in the wet well has increased to 25-30%. This explains the scatterplot result which is blended averages. Their view that it is not rate-dependent is not yet backed up by public data. It is very interesting that it is only the one well cutting water (increasingly so from the data we have seen), and the other one not at all, yet in all other respects the wells are acting pretty much as one. However for the time being (!) we have to take the statement "The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods." as being the best view that one can form. Despite this they seem to prefer to flow the dry well (why provoke more bad news ... especially when one doesn't understand what is going on ... ). The pressure info is very welcome and seemingly good. But overall not as good a year as hoped for, hence relinquishing Whirlwind (that drill or drop issue, plus subsequent capital requirements).
dspp
This is clear evidence that the Lancaster wells are performing better than expected and we are ramping up to 30000 per day by the end of next year when Lincoln online. Confident that water is perched - but that won’t stop some here talking it down.!
Puts to bed the water issue
" Furthermore, the Company believes that only approximately 50-60 metres of each 1 kilometre wellbore is contributing to production. Both wells are currently drawing on only a small section of the reservoir. "
So it is drawing oil laterally and the fluids in 940m (1000-60) of X-section are barely moving .