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Dspp - have a rest lad.
Share Discussion for Uk Oil & Gas (UKOG)
RE: SS13 Dec 2019 14:29
'RE: SSWed 23:08
$60 million loss, SP below 30p and sinkingblike a proverbial ship, huge lift costs of operating offshore, and a loan that makes ones eyes water, but not as much water as in their production wells. Ouch. You're right, HUR will never make a net profit. Loan impairment costs and bad results = good night nurse. Expect a buy out for peanuts in less than 12 months. Ouch. Sub 20p v soon, equating to a 66% reduction in SP in less than 6 months. Good stock picking.'
(Petercraigscot)
You must be one of the biggest liars I have come across on LSE AIM.
I suggest that anyone who believes any of your twaddle take a look at HUR's RNS today, as well as at analysts' valuations of the company, and see the true facts for themselves.
And, by the way, I'm invested in both HUR and UKOG.
Price action doesnt lie, the trajectory is now north with some way to go. GL
adamk87,
"Market likes the news."
Yes. It's a good RNS. I particularly like the fact that it's now in black and white that Strathmore's being relinquished, and also (about time too) Whirlwind.
It seems like the company's now tightening its belt, flexing its shoulders, and getting down to the nitty-gritty.
Have you noticed that all the posts about HUR heading for 15p and being stuck in the 20s, etc., have all stopped?
Even TSD just made only a half-hearted attempt to talk down its prospects.
Over on UKOG, they have stopped gloating over HUR's share price fall and predicting that HUR will fold up or be taken over for 'peanuts' in a year or two.
Seen it all before.
Dspp - it seems to me you got it wrong and instead of just holding your hands up you want to double down. I have given you the benefit of the doubt that your hypotheses did not have bad intent. However the more you persist in a narrative that is not there the more you are looking like you did have an agenda. May I suggest if you want to deal I. Data and draw scatter graphs use the production figures - as this is what most of us are interested in. Your hypotheses have already lost some people money for no reason I might add. Do you want to continue?
Will take 20k worth me above bid, cant get a quote for 5 grand. Market likes the news.
" I have already said the value will be significantly marked down on my next revision, which will take place when I have sufficient facts to do it. "
Looks as though the second half of your sentence contradicts the first half.
dspp,
While writing my most recent message, and having posted it, I see that others have been commenting on your 'rearguard action' posts, and have reverted as well. And now I read this:
" I have already said the value will be significantly marked down on my next revision, which will take place when I have sufficient facts to do it. "
Are you proposing yourself as someone to compile the next CPR? Maybe your rates will be cheaper than RPS's.
I'm sorry, sir, but for whatever little it's worth, you've just in my view blown whatever credibility as an impartial commentator you may have previously held. If you want more data than that which is posted in RNS's, provided in presentations, etc., I suggest you apply to Hurricane for a job. Though if they gave you one, I suspect it'd mean you'd have to stop blowing your own trumpet over on LemonFool.
dspp,
The other day at a poker game I 'cracked' someone else's pair of aces with my pair of fours when a four fell on the flop, giving me a set. Naturally said player was sick as a parrot, and sulked, sitting on the sofa for half an hour looking at his smartphone, before his wife persuaded him to join back in the game. Heck, what's a hundred quid (minimum buy-in) to someone who's rolled up in a six-month old rangerover Evoque and has left the Porsche at home in the garage?
" You and many others may prefer to ignore data that doesn't suit you, but I am very keen on understanding data that puts my investment at risk."
That's understandable. What I personally fail to comprehend is why you felt the OGA production figures fitted into the category of 'risky' data, and then launched yourself on a self-publicising Quixotic crusade (possibly scaring some people in the process) attempting to make two and two make five.
Personally I rather liked the OGA data, which did nothg else but confirm my reasons for holding onto the HUR shares I hold like a Panda clutching its newborn.
You know HOW I managed to crack my opponent's aces the other day? It was because he played 'em completely wrong to start with, and then went all-in when I knew I almost certainly had him beat. So of course I called. And I think that's why he sulked, because he realised he'd just played really badly. The same happens to me. I get terribly upset if I play badly, far more so than if some fluky bit of bad luck causes me to lose.
In your 'negative hypothesis' case, though, you weren't holding aces. Just some trashy hand like Q-J offsuit, and you should never call a raise with that.
I suggest you allow some time to pass, and then return and put your technical knowledge back to work in a hopefully helpful way.
' FYI I have already said the value will be significantly marked down on my next revision, which will take place when I have sufficient facts to do it. However there is still IMHO a sufficient upside to merit the very considerable risk. Anyway I have other things to do now.'
We know - you have to go back to Lemon Fool.
When we need someone to mark down the analysts' valuations, we'll let you know.
All this talk of water , you would think we were back to the Desire Petroleum days lol lol . Just topped up and waiting for the bounce
"but this is not a rah-rah moment if you are a HUR holder like me. "
Just seems odd that you have so many doubts (hmmmm) about the companies future that you are invested here dspp. I would think that most, if not all, would be long gone with such doubts.
Each to there own I guess
ATB
Perhaps one for the completions or reservoir management guys on here, but lets say hypothetically the perched water continues and becomes troublesome, but is prognosed not to be the aquifer; is it possible to isolate or block that point of inflow on the heal of the producer so that inflow could occur elsewhere at the fractures near the midfoot or the toe of the producer? There must be mitigations available surely ?
And why, despite every interpretation from yourself being negative, do you continue to be “long”
Go on, tell us some positives.....I dare you!
===
Go and read my historical analyses of price vs value. FYI I have already said the value will be significantly marked down on my next revision, which will take place when I have sufficient facts to do it. However there is still IMHO a sufficient upside to merit the very considerable risk. Anyway I have other things to do now.
And why, despite every interpretation from yourself being negative, do you continue to be “long”
Go on, tell us some positives.....I dare you!
I disagree. You quoting statements from Hurricane and they writing "Hmmmmm" after each one is saying that you believe they are announcing half truths, or half lies. Pure and simple
====
Fine. You can disregard data as much as you like. Meanwhile I have just given you a pretty good impression of what is going on elsewhere. Why do you think there are have been no bids for HUR.
I disagree. You quoting statements from Hurricane and they writing "Hmmmmm" after each one is saying that you believe they are announcing half truths, or half lies. Pure and simple
"You and many others may prefer to ignore data that doesn't suit you,"
I can assure you that is not the case. And I have read your further comments with interest. Let me say straightaway, as most here know, I have no industry experience. And I take on board what you say about partners, and how they will be looking at reservoir risk. But it seems to me that once again you are overstating concerns, and following a logic trail that is not at all certain.
For instance "why are you flowing the dry well?". could be any no of reasons, I would suggest ; that well may give a better data feedback ; it is maximising single well flow and revenue ; mb they think resting the other well will tell them more about the water, ; mb there are technical reasons to do with undersea architecture. We don't know ; but that does not seem to me to cast doubt on their water explanation. at this time. But it will be very interesting to see what happens post January when they once again flow both wells.
So dspp, you are saying that Hurricane are deliberately pulling the wool over investors eyes. Correct?
===
No. Don't misrepresent me. I am saying that HUR are very carefully setting out the bare minimum of facts whilst they take the time to assess the situation. And that any competent professional will be demanding the full facts, not the minimum. In the meantime individual investors can either take note of the risks on the table that the divulged facts indicate. Or they can disregard and operate on faith. YMMV.
I am long HUR. But I know that the only way to assess a reservoir is on the basis of actual data. Not faith. And certainly not someone else's reports of faith & hope. Data is the way to do it.
So dspp, you are saying that Hurricane are deliberately pulling the wool over investors eyes. Correct?
Looks like the individuals were wrong about the water and and now it seems they want to spread doubt about why they are only running one well for a few weeks etc, its quite possibly because they are still gathering info but more likely because they are finishing off the commisioning for the Produced Water System which may be required for the 7z well with the PERCHED water.
Quick calculation on 40k barrels per day in 2022 - 40,000 x 365 x $60 = $876,000,000
One year production more than the market cap.
Genghis, I haven't called this at all wrong. I have drawn attention to some interesting results that are embedded in the OGA data, and pointed out that this could arise from a number of hypotheses, four in total that I could think of. You and many others may prefer to ignore data that doesn't suit you, but I am very keen on understanding data that puts my investment at risk. The company has now come forwards and said that watercut in the wet well has increased to 25-30%. Hmmmmm......... But that they don't think it is rate dependent. Hmmmmmm........ But that they'd rather not produce it for the time being, instead preferring to suck on the dry well. Hmmmmmm...... I'm sorry but when you are working through the field development decision sequence you don't just hand wave away data that you don't like. Instead you go out and look for answers before putting $bns at stake on the FFD. Why else do you think that they will be drilling wells specifically to look for the OWC in the various reservoirs in the coming years, at the OGA's insistence ? You only handwave stuff away if you are trying to do a sale to a bunch of mug punters. However HUR know full well that they have to deal with professionals at both the buying majors, and in the OGA (who have to sanction any FFD etc), which is why HUR are being very careful about their steps. So I am sorry, but this is not a rah-rah moment if you are a HUR holder like me. This is one where we drum our fingers on the table because the risks are still very much there. Spirit's post-mortem on their farm-in would be a fascinating document to read, and we are unlikely to read it. But HUR drilling a third horizontal producer into Lancaster (which ought to be unnecessary from a wellstock perspective .....) should tell you that reservoir risk is still very much on the table. What we are also seeing is (apparently) good pressure support, which may simply be a matter of good connectivity to connected hydrocarbons, but may also be good connectivity to an active aquifer, or both. Now if you think that the wet well is not connected to an aquifer, why are you preferring the dry well ? If you think that the wet well is only producing perched water, and that once that single pocket of perched water is produced then it will run dry, then why are you preferring the dry well ? (and by the way I don't subscribe to such a simplistic explanation of perched water). Basically there will be people like me, with much the same backgrounds as me, and the same experiences (but more) as me, in all the majors going Hmmmmm........ That is why the only bid that has come in so far was from Spirit who were desperate to do something, anything, to prop up their declining reservoirs. And is why Hur played a blinder on them with the farm-in deal that was done on LinWar. The rest of them are going Hmmmmm...... I know this because I have done this stuff for real. Which is why HUR answered my very valid concern as sparingly as possible. dspp
In the wrong hands genghis a little knowledge can be dangerous.