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fang - no reason given. and obvious question. again, one of the simplest questions will likely never be answered. a question one should have been able to put to board at the time and get straight answer
Has anyone seen a reason why HUR went to ERCE for the 2nd CPR?
Just got to wondering why HUR didn't just go back to RPS with updated production data.
I know from my own experience with Safety Third Party Studies, once you've gone through the specification, tendering, bidding, requisitioning, due diligence process you generally don't want to go through it all again later on to get another third party company to do an update. You just want to update the requisition to the next revision so the original study company can bill you.
"why we've never heard of why the difference between the 2 CPR's."
“The main difference was that ERCE were looking at a great deal of production data wand later wells which weren't available to RPS. The data comprehensively sank Trice's model of the field so the numbers were going to crater . They may have taken a "rigorous" view as well - but I really, really doubt there is an error in their calculations”
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I have a problem with any data produced during 2020 / early 2021.
How do we know the data can be trusted, given we now understand what the previous BoD were up to? Thrown out by the court… CA investigation pending. What if the 2nd CPR was driven by false data, with one aim. This is all part of the wider investigation imo
"but I really, really doubt there is an error in their calculations"
lol I'm glad you've not much doubt, for me engineers are always capable of making mistakes. Here's one of my favourites with a decimal point in the wrong place and correcting the original mistake nearly making another mistake.
https://www.military.com/military-life/how-misplaced-decimal-point-nearly-took-down-spains-newest-submarines.html
mira - i get that. but if that is the case then it should and could be explained within an independent report, in plain terms the market and SHs can understand. all peeps want is intelligible explanation as to why A morphed into B
"why we've never heard of why the difference between the 2 CPR's."
The main difference was that ERCE were looking at a great deal of production data wand later wells which weren't available to RPS. The data comprehensively sank Trice's model of the field so the numbers were going to crater . They may have taken a "rigorous" view as well - but I really, really doubt there is an error in their calculations
You'd have to go to Gaffney Cline I think to get a CPR that the market might believe - the US outfits (D&M etc) are good at big, conventional fields but might have problems here.
Both RPS & ERCE are good outfits but you're right - another take is necessary for the markets
"it's basic requirement and cannot see why should be difficult to explain."
In my experience, it'll be difficult to explain if it was a mistake by someone. Takes a man to say sorry, companies just don't do it.
I'm hoping against hope ERC just made a mistake and as it fell in step with the BOD plans it got brushed under the carpet, which is why we've never heard of why the difference between the 2 CPR's. That's when I'm in one of my more optimistic moods
my thoughts also fandg - needs to be explained how things moved from A to B, in plain terms. it's basic requirement and cannot see why should be difficult to explain. as to the actual true correct position now - that matter to be addressed separately. so a report split into 2 parts.
"Ideal scenario = 3rd favourable CPR, timed around an announcement into the CA investigation of the previous BoD.
Something needs to back up the disappearing/ reappearing oil story that the market and buyers can understand. Would also seem like justice being done."
That would do it for me, although what I feel should happen is a gap analysis between RPS (1st CPR) and ERC (2nd CPR) as to why the difference between the two, done by an independent entity. At least that would bring a third competent person into the fray, which I think is what is needed now. RPS and ERC are never going to stick their hands up and say, "sorry guys, got the decimal point in the wrong place" so someone other than RPS, ERC or HUR needs to come up with an explanation for the city to believe AIMHO
“potential problem though - if a 3rd CPR is produced, what faith will the market (and indeed SHs) have in it? thoughts please?“
Ideal scenario = 3rd favourable CPR, timed around an announcement into the CA investigation of the previous BoD.
Something needs to back up the disappearing/ reappearing oil story that the market and buyers can understand. Would also seem like justice being done.
If it was similar to first one I would expect some BOD's to do some prison time.
If it was similar to second one then we are still in the same boat.
If it is somewhere in the middle I think everybody would be quite happy
Bloomberg report - Good news if producing oil like HUR
Stockpiles at the biggest U.S. crude depot are quickly approaching critically low levels. The last time that happened, crude cost more than $100 a barrel.
The storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, require a minimum level of oil to maintain normal operations, which traders generally believe is around 20 million barrels. Unusually for this time of year, stockpiles declined more than 4 million barrels over the past two weeks to 31 million and are expected to keep dropping rapidly due to the world's insatiable demand for U.S. light sweet crude.
It’s a stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of oil so big that traders resorted to storing it in tankers at sea. The drawdown, driven by a rapid demand recovery, has been exacerbated by an energy crisis that has sent European and Asian buyers on the hunt for cheaper barrels. Over the coming weeks, stockpiles are likely to fall further to the operational low, traders at some of the biggest oil merchants in the world said, prompting the market to turn even more bullish.
“Crude oil could justifiably trade to the next level higher on the storage drought at Cushing alone,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. “Forget about fuel switching, whether OPEC+ adds additional barrels, or dollar weakness: if Cushing continues to slide, it could get ugly quickly.”
Sense
3rd CPR - Interesting question, I think it will need to be done at some stage and only if the BOD have done their own analysis and are conveninced it will confirm an inprovement on the last CPRS. If a mesurable improvement in recoverable resources is confirmed I think it can only postively affect the Company and SP. We may need to have it completed in order to extend some CB's or raise some finance for a FWP for 2022.
potential problem though - if a 3rd CPR is produced, what faith will the market (and indeed SHs) have in it? thoughts please?
All the best Fandg2. Things are looking much better and I pray that LTH's recoup their losses.
My average is just around 8 now and I hope to make some profit before exit. Just like other false things said by Maris and company, my impression is the report on no oil left was created to run down the company. There is a lot of oil ( If not massive) down here and this company is a goldmine.
you only lose money once it is crystallised.
"There are people posing here who lost £350,000 GBP's. "
If that's a reference to my post yesterday. Small point of order, I haven't actually lost £350k, I'm down on paper £350k. I haven't left the table yet and to follow the parlance of one of the better posters on this BB, may he rest in peace, while I've a chip and a chair I'm still in the game ;-)
Yes, the next 6 months should deliver positive change for HUR across all areas. My only slight concern is the virtue-signalling, eco-fasshhists waknesr at COP26 who may attack NS Oil full on. The OGA also needs putting in its place.
We need oil and gas until other forms of energy can replace them but it seems we have people in charge and with influence who appear destructive in their intent driven by a vile ideology. Pragmatism and utility should drive public policy not activists and spineless leeches like Boris Johnson
OTB good reply, my own viewpoint is that I will follow CA. If they think HUR is worth investing in then I am happy to stay. For what it is worth, I lost money on the way down and stop lossed out. When the news changed I bought back in and hold a 6 figure number of shares and am £2k in the blue so overall I am slightly up on the journey and reasonably optimistic that HUR will re rate or attract a bid. I am concerned about CA and will watch to see how they get through their November investor meeting. I tend to use filter to blank out the obvious suspects.
1616
give it a rest for a week or so, eh?
better that peeps think you're a prat. rather than keep opening your gob and proving it.
if peeps are indeed deluded, let them be. it's a free world. they don't want you as a mum, or the thought police
besides, you're giving everyone a headache!
NGR1616, if this is indeed a dead duck, put your money where your mouth is and just go short, make a load of money, and regain whatever you did lose and some. No point sitting here day after day recycling the same old story. If with all your alleged experience, degrees, and expertise, you're not willing to go short at this stage, then no one cares about your "degrees" and who you speak to. You just sound bitter having lost money before, and spreading FUD targeted specifically to LTH is your way of "getting even". Folks on here would respect you far more if you had the courage of your convictions and just openly went short. You ain't going to do that, as deep down you know bonds get dealt with, and this thing reaches escape velocity, in part due to the high price of oil. If you did go short, you'd end up getting margin call after margin call, and rather than losing 100%, it'd be 3,4,500% +.
No I'm not a 'balls deep'; unable to realise this is a piece of s*** investment. investor, -like you and many others.
You are slift aka fartybottom
Riproar. Boo. Hoo.