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There’s your good news mrwilks!
All in all a positive RNS, note the change in tone from previous releases.
GLA. PK.
With BP choosing the price they pay us, I don't think they will give us an extra 4 mil because we chocked back (thus extending offload date).
I assume shuttle tanker is booked many weeks in advance (not like hailing a cab)
As mentioned a while back, I think they should choke back to preserve/extend the well.
Could the 7 well be re opened for say 6 weeks to give 6 well a rest?????
When 6 has been shut before bottom hole pressure has risen.
All guess work on my behalf (hopefully the guys in charge know more than me)
On the off chance anybody who works on the AM reads this BB can I say a big thanks from all the shareholders
especially to the guys and girls who had to work the holiday shift. Keep up the good work.
Hoping for some good news this week.
Good night
winalot
Unless there are experts who can explain why not, it would seem logical to restrict flow down to say 5 or 6k bopd to extend the period into February. It will have the added advantage of reducing “pull” on the reservoir and extending the time before bubble point is reached. It would be worth another $4m.
"the 2 baddies won't be going anywhere at the next agm without ca say-so."
Yeah, fair point
the 2 baddies won't be going anywhere at the next agm without ca say-so. how many SHs will vote them out if ca want them to stay, knowing HUR would have 30 days to find replacements? if that were the case, they would have been out at the last agm post-court case. the 2 baddies know HUR can't afford (recovery wise) to sack them yet - it ain't easy to attract quality newbies to a small recovering company reliant on one well. sadly HUR stuck with rubbish for a while yet
i hope RNS delay is due to something being finalised late in the day & CA insisting on delay so it can be included- further bond buying, BW deal, whatever it may be. that is what my money is on
"i am on tanker watch for later next week will report when known"
Not sure I've ever thanked you laserdisc for your invaluable input to this board and insight into the world of tankers, I've never even heard of 'Winter North Atlantic Draft' !
So, "Thank you for your efforts on our behalf"
"My view since court failure being that their primary goal would be, for reputational protection/recovery purposes, to limit HUR's recovery as much as poss till at least July 22 bond redemption date. i believe they will likely continue that behaviour for at least another 6 months and CA will have an existential battle with them re RNS content for a goodly while yet. the 2 baddies will stop if only when they start to look stupid (eg as fat Boris does now). they are wholly aware that most lazy analysts rely mainly on company CEO RNSs and can't be bothered to look into the company history and if the CEO & CFO might be wrong 'uns"
Interesting view which I could agree with, other than before July there should be an AGM in June. Think the CEO/CFO need to pull the rabbit out of the hat before then to have any chance of surviving the AGM in one piece.
Certainly agree with your 'lazy analysis' comment and you can include the industry press in that as well.
Very well put Senseman...........as always clear, precise and with a good degree of logic.
Winalot sadly correct. $4 mill down the swanee (methinks poor negiotiating with BP early doors). no doubt HUR hurt big time (+ $30mill?) over period of time by BP always having choice of pricing period. must look to future succour - consistent future high Brent.
mals suggest choking back well 6 awhile. would love to see it happen, if only to stop donating $4mill to BP. but apart from the old maxim - if it ain't broke don't tinker with it - would need creative CEO & CFO working in HUR's favour - which Maris & Chaffe ain't - no shares, no skin in the game. My view since court failure being that their primary goal would be, for reputational protection/recovery purposes, to limit HUR's recovery as much as poss till at least July 22 bond redemption date. i believe they will likely continue that behaviour for at least another 6 months and CA will have an existential battle with them re RNS content for a goodly while yet. the 2 baddies will stop if only when they start to look stupid (eg as fat Boris does now). they are wholly aware that most lazy analysts rely mainly on company CEO RNSs and can't be bothered to look into the company history and if the CEO & CFO might be wrong 'uns
i am on tanker watch for later next week will report when known
Note
At an average draft of 14.5 m the
storage capacity is approximately 550,000 stb, meaning that during the winter months when the
FPSO is limited to the Winter North Atlantic (WNA) draft of 14.58 m sufficient capacity exists for up to
two days of offloading delay, assuming an offloading parcel size of 500,000 stb.
West of Shetland is notorious for bad weather and RPS believes that the two days of ullage could be
tight. To partially mitigate this issue, Hurricane advises that they will work closely with both Bluewater
and the Oil Buyer to lift early if severe weather is expected.
The last offload was 30th Nov and was 535,000bbls. The production rate as of 14th Dec was 9,900bopd.
So say the current rate of production is c9,750bopd, it would take 62 days to fill to max capacity from empty (604,478). 62 days would take us to Jan 31st
There is now way the tanks would of been emptied on Nov 30th and there is no way they would risk filling beyond say 500,000 without having arranged an offload. So unless the production rates are less than 9,750 we unfortunately will have to sell the next offload at the price at the start of the January ($77.50). losing out on c$4M by a couple of days.
Crude storage capacity 96,112 m3 (604,478 bbls)
https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Data-sheet-Aoka-Mizu-updated-2021.pdf
I think AM has 600-650k capacity we normally off load around 500k. The weather is a major planning factor this time of year.
What's the maximum load that the Aoka Mizu can hold and the total the off load tankers can receive? Can we keep production running until February to get the higher price?