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In transit to Jersey yesterday so missed the excitement but rns looks reassuring. In summary cash has gone up from $81 M end Jun 2019 to $150m Dec 2019 on higher than budgeted bpd. Well 6 running in isolation now at 14700 bpd until end Jan 20 whilst I presume well 7z perched water sorted prior to ramping up to 20000 bpd from running both wells concurrently. Balance sheet should look very healthy when next set of accounts are published.
WhichWay Now,
"You questioned my assertion about whether we are still in the Base Case as defined by the CPR."
Maybe I owe you a small apology, due to reading your post too quickly, and misunderstanding your reference to Base Case as defined by the CPR. (Though in my defense, you didn't put in the capital letters for Base Case!)
On a purely technical note, certain assumptions in the CPR are founded on oil OUTSIDE structural closure, not BELOW it as you wrote. But let's not get into that now.
I agree with you that for a greater understanding of things, further questions have to be answered, and more information provided. But this is in no way a criticism of the company, and certainly not a suggestion that they're 'hiding' anything. I have no doubt that more will be revealed in due course, and hopefully a further CPR containing such detail is already being compiled, to be published (again hopefully) before the CMD.
When it comes to the bottom line, there have to be limits as to how much detail can be usefully given in an RNS, without overwhelming those readers who don't understand all the technicalities.
The productivity performance of each well on an individual basis is in excess of the Company's pre-start-up expectations.
yes i guess we are outside the base case
ADUK
You questioned my assertion about whether we are still in the Base Case as defined by the CPR.
Two issues:
The Base Case relies on oil flow from below structural closure. WD did not, and I think I’m right in saying none of the vertical wells have ever done so.
The Base Case for perched water is 5-10%. Worst case in the CPR 10-15%. Given the current water cut, we are at least outside of Base Case.
So the company have a number if questions still remaining to answer at the CMD in March. From evidence made available the Base Case in the CPR is not met. Whether this is a critical shortfall will no doubt be revealed at the CMD.
GLA