Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
We need a Management Team that know how to add value to a company. At present I don’t see this from our BOD, they have stated we will have a FWP by the end of next month. Our cash pile needs investing as soon as possible to reap any rewards, running our single well to the end with no plan and cash in the bank being reduced in real terms by inflation is not a plan our BOD should be pulling a pay cheque for.
I am hoping a partner will appear and assist in reducing the risk of investing that CA will feel comfortable with otherwise they will not get their much sort after ROI by end of next year.
Waffen
Did you do work all that out on the back of a fag packet? Amazing work!
Would this be a fairer HUR outlook:
- Single well P6: 1P (90%) proven reserves at beginning of 2022: 4.1 MMbbs.
2.2MMbbs extracted so far (4 uplifts; Jan,March, May, July) 4 uplifts remaining (approx) before relying on remaining 2P reserves (50% chance) of possible 1.8MMbbs
- Nothing at Halifax (currently worthless)?
- £85M cash in bank.
- Undetermined tax relief (from levy) on further exploration, pending new UK Prime Minister, new policy, in September.
- No Warwick or Lincoln - ‘non commercial’ well at Lincoln plugged and abandoned. GWA licence relinquished.
- large shareholder CA fund manager obliged to sell 29+% ( avg 6.7p (?)) stake by 12/23 latest.
- BOD stuck, awaiting world events before deciding what to do with the money (deflating@ c.10+%/annum)
- current value £85M/1.9B shares = 4.27p. + whatever’s left and commercially viable from P6 (-BOD salaries, Opex, etc).
James Hudleston, a financier,, my client at the time, was the person who put the company together, and the finance. The were introduced via a local cab driver. The story is a long one. I was then offered shares. I bought £30Ks worth……
daltry
He was not given free shares. It was his company which he retained an interest in represented by number of shares allocated.
Haggis - To be fair, he was given 25 million free shares on Co Set-up........
^ For all Dr Trices faults he had a vision and didn't try to give the company away for free to bond holders.
Flyingpie - Good post, and poignant . Robert Trice tried to rule the BoD with his personal obsession about fractured basements saving the UK’s energy drain.
A nice enough chap - until you disagreed with him…..He did find oil, and HUR is reaping the benefits. The present management is what stinks, and every professional investor knows it. No vision and no plan. Sorry to keep harping on like a stuck record needle. Most LTHs would like to be out of HUR. They are certainly not going to be buying more…
Apologies for the last para - out of order and should be before CA RNS quote.
To finish: I think it highly unlikely that such a set of recorded facts regarding the Halifax field and test drill could be interpreted without any basis at all. There was a test drill, teams involved.
Of course the interpretation could be askew but to hoodwink so many seems unlikely in my view.
To get past the conjecture, I foresee, given the changing nature of energy security, that there will be oiler’s itching to re-visit the, ‘there yet not there’ Halifax field.
According to FT April 2020, Pierre Andurand (famously shorting oil) claimed it was only absolutely clear to him in February 2020 that Oil would drop dramatically due to covid19 and regretted not staying for the negative price dip of -$40/barrel.
Another possibility is that 50/50 assets are being stripped away in preparation for a sale.
I would like to hear more about that plan as would we all. That Halifax field is still there and needs further exploration. Crystal amber have ‘targets’ for “dividends” not necessarily set in stone(?):
22/12/21
The Fund has a track record of returning cash to shareholders via share buybacks and dividends: since the change to the Articles in 2013, £60 million has been returned to shareholders. The Fund intends to return all net proceeds from its holdings in Hurricane Energy plc, […] after providing for ongoing operational costs as necessary. The Fund previously announced, based on the Investment Manager's assessment of the status and timing of anticipated corporate transactions, that it is targeting additional shareholder returns of at least £40 million or 50p a share before 30 June 2022. Whilst the Fund is confident that this as achievable, after consulting with a number of shareholders, it is no longer considered to be in the interests of the Fund to impose a fixed deadline but will be keeping it as a target.
However, the general consensus at the time was generally that the game was up for oil and it would be all about ‘renewables’ , with oil at around $65 avg 1st half 2020.
"I wonder where all that oil has gone?"
Couldn't it be that it never actually existed, and that Trice simply got it all very wrong?
I know the BoD have done some shady things - but is there any reason people here believe Trice any more?
Well, I still haven’t had a reply directly from HUR so while still waiting to here from Maris &Co, I’ve been mulling over Some RNS history - highly relevant in my view. (Happy to be corrected).
It was stated 11/12/17
“Halifax 2C Contingent Resources of 1,235 million barrels of oil equivalent
· Lincoln 2C Contingent Resources of 604 million barrels of oil equivalent
· The undrilled Warwick prospect is assigned Best Case (P50) Prospective Resources of 935 million stock tank barrels of oil, with a 77% chance of being a discovery”
Lincoln, part of GWA, was 50% owned by HUR due to farm-out to Spirit Energy prior to recent relinquishment, (Still listed on Spirit Energy’s asset list) in order to obtain funding for early production.
01/06/22
“Hurricane has determined that further appraisal and development costs to reach an economic development on the Warwick discovery within the remaining licence term is not feasible for the Company. Further to discussions with the Company's JV partner, Spirit Energy, the GWA JV has decided to relinquish the P2294 licence area. This is in addition to the previously announced decision to relinquish the Lincoln P1368(S) licence sub area. “
HALIFAX licence is still owned 100%. It needs to be repeated that in 2017 that there were probable reserves of some 1 Billion+ barrels of oil within a 1.8km column (to 200m deeper than Lancaster).
Furthermore DR Thrice CEO until 08/06/21 stated : “The principal purpose of the Halifax [exploration] Well was to support the Company's view that the Lancaster Field and the Halifax prospect are one large connected structure. Well results support the Company's opinion. The Halifax Well has successfully identified an extensive oil column, significantly below local structural closure. The reservoir interval encountered is pervasively fractured with porosities similar to those at Lancaster. The Company believes that the deeper oil down to ("ODT") at 1,846m true vertical depth subsea ("TVDSS") identified in the Halifax Well, compared with an oil water contact ("OWC") at Lancaster at 1,678m TVDSS, is most likely caused by a tilted OWC.”
Then, sometime later:
Halifax: ERCE (Emergy Resource Consultants).
07/04/21
“No Contingent Resources are attributed by ERCE to the Halifax well drilled in 2017. At 31 December 2020, c.$35 million of the Company's balance sheet intangible exploration and evaluation assets represented the historical cost incurred at Halifax to date. The Company now expects that the Halifax carrying value will be fully written off in its audited accounts for the year ended 31 December 2020”.
Dr Robert Thrice, of the above statement has resigned after Crystal Amber went to court over the bond repayment scheme. His-linked in account is dormant.
I wonder where all that oil has gone?
Perhaps the negative oil price of April 2020 gave the BOD cold feet (although the timing doesn’t seem to match this theory very well. Cont….