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“Oil Markets May Be Even Tighter Than Forecasters Say“:
“The IEA warns of a growing discrepancy between observed and calculated changes in oil stockpiles”
“The oil market is getting tighter and there may be even less slack in the system than forecasts suggest.”
Sarcasm: "Mainly, people use it to say the opposite of what's true to make someone look or feel foolish." Google says so!
Do you understand the simple concept of sarcasm? You are suggesting that no one will be interested in HUR because of……………….the tone of an RNS!! Not the other realities of course, just the RNS.
Proactive Investors Note:
"Soaring oil prices couldn’t be more timely for anybody other than Hurricane Energy.":
Today with Brent trading very nicely at circa $88+, HUR is likely the most undervalued/oversold O&G share trading within the UK markets (possibly even globally!), and upside potential now here by far outweighs any downside risks, DYOR.
Yeah Senseman because most interested parties don’t bother with due diligence these days and instead look back at a few RNS’s and some posts on the LSE board before signing contracts.
The reason CA will be so concerned re ongoing inadequate downbeat RNSs is, apart from the constant SP drag, it makes negotiating with a potential farmee or trade buyer so onerous - the first thing they will wave (as a tactic) are HURs own downbeat RNSs showing poss only $8 mill net free cash by end July 22. One cannot really argue in negotiations that the RNSs were constructed by rogue CEO & CFO.
Yes he is waiting 1st of February and Brent of 90$
I wonder whether Petroatlantic sitting outside Aberdeen is waiting to be assigned to us?
red, don't know details. but look at it this way, even if the CEO or CFO gave notice, would CA want them there another 6 months?
if dyor is correct as likely, makes easier - i recall ca stating at july agm they needed keep M & C pro tem so someone there to show new NEDs how things worked at HUR. so that time and need has passed also
but a sickening way of looking at Maris & Chaffe strikes me -
HUR have -$28 mill net debt with offload and & cash in bank by end jan to clear that - for simplicity let's say to zero net debt
RNS says in next 6 WHOLE MONTHS ie start Feb - end July total, HUR may (on 31 July) have only +$8 mill cash - in other words that producing +9000 bpd at Brent +$80, in 6 clear months HUR can throw off only $8 mill profit
what hope does HUR have whilst it's 2 top guys posit such statements in the public domain?
I don’t think finding a quality CEO for our Company would be difficult, last year was devastating for the industry with a lot of redundancies and early retirements. Hur’s operations are simple and there would be a lot of personnel interested.
Golden, latest figures are Kerogen hold circa 16% so it would take quite some time to purchase shares to get anywhere near CA's 28-29% shares ownership and the shares would have to be available to buy. They are around 240m shares short of matching CA. But i think there could be something in CA just sitting on the threshold, incase any sneaky dealings are done. The sooner the bonds are paid the better!
Yes agree to pay and move on with new management would be great.
There had been concerns on them quitting and the company only having 30 days to find replacements. I was checking if this is the case or would it be 6 months plus 30 days. Ie the company has longer than many concerned investors understand.
Can you clarify ?
lots of good pithy comment today
agree with you flynchy - i think CA have now seen & had enough & will be actively working to replace one or both asap as soon as sequencing falls into place - an aligned management team now crucial going forward
red - re 6 months notice, can't see it happening - will be paid off & leave early - money well spent to get shut of them, eh?
golden - we aren't too far apart re our sums - must admit inbuilt into my +$100 mill were expectation of one or more of (i) further bond buyback (ii) above $80 (iii) extra $10mill sitting in AM tanks by end July. re the other stuff we'll find out soon enough. ca won't let any other 30% steal HUR, they would immediately raise themselves to 30% to counter
and BRENT $88.5 - good, good, good! at $90 HUR are shoulder-high in cream!
Regarding only being allowed to purchase all outstanding CB's , not piecemeal . Having read the same line in the contract over the years i was also under that impression , however Hurricane have already purchased and cancelled $150m CB's in 2021 . Possibly they found the Loophole which allowed a 3rd party to purchase , as alluded to in RNS . The outstanding CB's will be paid off by 31st Jan and thereafter we can all move on .
Very important posts today regarding not selling on the cheap .If you can HOLD then Hold .
The opportunists who attempted to steal the company are moving to Plan B where a 30% Holding is being built and it's not Crystal Amber . Possibly Kerogen and a partner/s . They didn't go to all this trouble to walk away now, these people know Hurricane has significant value .
Many tree shakes will happen until CB's paid off and CEO and CFO replaced .
Kerogen know everything that's going on at Hurricane it's as leaky as the Houses of Parliament The Game is heating up ......... Stay Strong ......... Hold .
$90m free cash by July 31st on $80 Brent .
Thanks Senseman. Helpful as always. Cheers.
As per annual report they are on 6 months notice - that goes both ways whether they quit or are pushed. Surely the 30 days comes at the end of the 6 month contractual period ?
One could speculate that replacement CEO & CFO have already been identified, approached and conditionally accepted in which case the 30 day hurdle, presently justifying their retention, becomes a non-issue.
I would be very surprised if this is not the case given the amount of effort and treasure that CA have expended on their investment.
The Chairman is non-executive and together with the other non-executive director and the support of shareholders I would suggest that the sword of Damocles is sharpened, drawn and awaits the moment!
Sharefall - if one or both go HUR has a calendar month for find replacement otherwise delisted from AIM - bondholders would certainly kick off again & press for this. Maris & Chaffe know this. They also know would be hard to attract good CEO & CFO to join HUR whilst recovering and with bondholders still there. So instead of acting honourably after June court, they have continued deviantly playing the situation for all it is worth. CA would need to find and line up new CEO & CFO on the quiet then call EGM to kick Maris & Chaffe out & have new guy(s) voted in.
One may be absolutely certain CA are sick to death of inadequate RNS's serving as lead anchors on the SP and will have fronted both Maris & Chaffe about it numerous times. But the baddies are hard faced two faced deviants acting to their own agenda. They will say yes yes mea culpa won't do it again... till the next time. Recent proper upbeat RNS should have shot the SP to 6p rather than raise it by just 0.4p so it's easily dragged down by MM to pre RNS level
That said, I imagine very strongly that having given the baddies numerous chances to change tack, CA will actively be considering replacing one or both asap, whatever the hassle.
Personally I would do it one at a time, get ANYONE lined up then sack CEO Maris immediately. CEO writes the RNS. Maris does sod all anyway save to smoke cigars, delay the BW deal and think about the next slimeball RNS, all for half a mill a year. And new CEO can keep Chaffe in check & his nose to the grindstone where it belongs.
Senseman, agree completely. Any thoughts on why CA have not leaned more on them to move on?
Exposed are the limitations of an anodyne RNS stating grudgingly that HUR should enough cash to pay bonds but may have a little as $8 mill free cash by end July 22. Rather than one stating cash from imminent offload will put HUR in net cash positive position end January, and providing an objectively realistic end July 22 positive net cash position. Proof of how dangerous the 2 bad guys remain
Good rns yesterday and from 4.8 we drop to below 4.4 when we should be over 6p plus. All sorts going on behind the scenes. Might get a Tr1 soon on buyer or seller.
As PoO aggressively moves up, opportunities for M&A, JV, Farmout, etc. here also significantly increase and with CA ever so close to the key 30% mark, I wonder if they (along with Saba) have any potential bidders already in the works, interesting and potentially very exciting times ahead.
Personally expecting a strong blue finish here (same direction as Brent) with rally towards the close, HUR’s significant upward re-rate hasn’t yet even started.
Brent Price Live:
Good timely post TC.