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Joesoap; thanks for re-posting your precise calcs on kerogen's b/e; my (very) rough calc was less than 10s of consideration of their intitial 2016 share buy-in (and omitted to consider the 73m @ >0.30, apologies), but the gist is there, as i noted "....A small premium to the current sp would see them little better-off than if they had bought the bonds, though...." (By small premium i mean +2.5 p, which given the 45p+ valuation before the AM doped-a-rope is derisible.) Given the bond coupon, that's pretty ****-poor, I think we'd agree? (But still a lot better than almost all lth's). So anyway, i don't see Kerogen's 7.5 pps b/e need as a great starting-point for a Hur sale, do you?
DC makes a valid point re Dr Parsley: what is his belief-set? imho there is a fundamental issue here,with Hur (I know oil investors will say t'was ever thus, but for the bod to be considering a material downdgrade, either (a) Dr T + team + RPS were incompetent, unprofessional (WellWell's 'hubris') or lying, or they were right and there isn't going to be a shallower owc - except perhaps for acknowledgement that 'perches' may be quite large (possibly larger than the %'s estimated in earlier models), and that the oip should be revisited to allow for that. [i.e. a change to the reservoir fluid content model). This latter path isn't so bad. [If a shallower general owc is now deemed (and proven so) to be, it should, imo, result in de-registering (removal of professional status) of those concerned with the original work: no recompense for investors losing money, but would reduce the prospects of a repeat event].
7z's water production to-date (rom, Joe!) would drain a fissure 300m x 1km x 33mm, so if it's a perch frac network, given the seismic data and arising model estimates of void volume, three to 5 times this (or more) seems quite reasonable to me - hence i wouldn't expect a decrease on water rate for another year or so, maybe. But I'm no res eng, maybe a frac field specialist could help us all out here? Anyone know one with some spare time on their hands?
atb
gla
Ron kelly could more less buy the company with his 40 million pound share sale.
Takeover all over this imo
Dive. RON Kelly got another job, so they replaced him with another experienced geologist. No conspiracy there.
But Kerogen's exertion on new BOD is likely significant IMOV. They provided the cash to get HUR to where they are and are the major shareholder...
SG2
This is the unanswered question.
Have they put up the for sale sign post or are they sticking to the original plan saying 'up yours' if you don't want to play ball we'll go it alone.
Along with RT's departure we had Kerogen replace Ron Kelly with Dr Alan Parsley "a geologist with over 50 years' experience in the oil and gas industry, primarily at Shell where he held senior positions including Global Head of Exploration, Head of New Business Ventures and E&P Planning, Chief Executive of Syria Shell and Chairman of Shell Australia."
Question: Why was Ron Kelly replaced with Dr Alan Parsley.
We have no real information on Alan Parsley's background. He is a geologist but does he have any experience in fractured basement?
Is he an FB spectic or does he have an open mind. Is he the one that is now pushing the higher OWC scenario. It raises questions as to who is in charge, Kerogen or Ms Smith.
When the Interim results are published next month I would expect to see a statement either confirming Ms Smith as CEO or indicating an intention to recruit a replacement. Failing this I fear that Kerogen have taken control.
The one saving grace is that CA remain.
SG2, noted your comment " K covered their asses last year and are freeloading now."
I had previously worked out and posted that they were still owed 7.5p per share.
Can you show me where your workings are different to mine? TIA.
Buys
Shares
355,408,990 @15p = £53,311,348.50
_73,122,221 @32p = £23,399,110.72
428,531,211 . . . .£76,710,459.22 Total
Warrant conversions
6,527,501 . @20p = £1,305,500.20
£78,015,959.42 Grand Total
Sales
Shares
110,000,000 @46.5p= £51,150,000
Warrant conversions
3,000,000 @45.92p £1,377,600
3,527,501 @45.00p £1,587,375.45
Remaining exposure £23,900,983.97
Remaining no of shares 318,531,211
Equates to 7.50p
--
imo there is no issue with MC for entry into the Premium Sector of the main market, as it is £700k not £700M, and they have continued diligently to put all the ducks in a row.
--
29 April 2020 RNS listed all NonExecs and many PDMR buying with the exception of Bev.
Is she more perceptive and risk averse than the rest of the BoD and managers and now the Acting CEO?
Hmmm.
Had a look at ie3 and looks promising, can’t bring myself to take the loss here though to invest in it. Probably a bad move by me in the long run
I’m not a paid popper but I have lost a big number here which hurts. My fault though so I can’t moan at you lot, have a look at IE3, it’s on a great upward trend. I’ve sold 1/2 my HUR and invested IE3 at 5.56 today, hoping to bring it back here when IE3 gives me 10.0
that I smell a number of paid poppers planted here on penny paid posts to cause doubts about the Company's prospects, one can read what rubbish they write to earn few coppers, if they think/feel the Company's prospects are bad/poor than why the hell are they here, sewage dwellers, sell off if you have any shares and off you go to your sewage pipes Dwellings.
“ That's when you know.you are in so balls deep you even read Planted BHA's posts!!!”
Lol.
with the Posters saying that they smelt BIG RATS. BIG rats normally live in sewage.
Oh God, I've got around 3 X the shares the chairman has. That's when you know.you are in so balls deep you even read Planted BHA's posts!!!
19/19, Sure, that's the way they earn more salaries than MPS., AND PROBABLY, RISHI SINAK,. They should be told about the affairs on AIM Companies and how to earn more!!!!
Sounds like chairman is under water like so many of the rest of us, pun intended..:-)
lol, 375k shares.
Big boy Tommy here has over 10x that number.
Several of us have multiples of that number of shares.
Beverley has 0.
Enough said.
DC; no, i doubt Mr McT would be chuffed at far sub-40, but his remuneration 'package' probably sees him right in any event, as buyinMay notes. The problem is, as B-I-M alludes (i think), is that it's not his decision - it's likely to be Kerogens - with some help from RB@CA, maybe, in a hostile. While I am prepared to play the long game, are the big players??
I'd still like to see Hal revisited before a sale.
gla
Steve McTiernan chairman's statement in the last set of published a/c's, re-iterated the desire for a premium listing.
ESG sorted.
Just need entry criteria SP @ 35p = min Mcap of £700m.
Patience ! PoO is rising
I’m sure he’d be handsomely compensated in any deal.
SG2
November 2018 our chairman Steve McTiernan bought 375k shares at 40.61393p. Do you think he would be comfortable as Chairman of a board that recommends acceptance of a sub 40p offer.
Precisely, but I’m trying to work out if they’d support a 10p bid
Kerogen's BE is only relevant in a TO situation. They are no different from PIs in wanting sp improvement and substantive ops improvements.
buyinmay; just checked (apologies for memory fail due to accumulation of heat, age and stupidity), and indeed, K covered their asses last year and are freeloading now. A small premium to the current sp would see them little better-off than if they had bought the bonds, though. Explains a lot of the Bod's recent attitude, most of whom have (and ex-bods having had) precious little skin in the game.
gla
Spruce. I’ve seen it quoted several times on this board that Kerogen’s existing shareholding is now effectively cost free due to their subsequent trades. No idea if this is correct.
Haggis-T; agree generalsentiments re co'y grossly undervalued etc, but maybe the new ceo is holding her tongue until she has a really good handle on not only what is happening and will be happening, but has previously happened and where the (if any) discrepancies lie ('sic'?)
Re Kerogen's sell aimpoint; do i recall wrongly that they bought-in in mid-upper 20's but sold 20% 0f their holding last year at ~100% -ish profit? That then would put them in a not-good position for a breakeven from a t/o at even thrice todays sp....pls correct if my v approx memory is significantly in error.
gla
Totally agree but the market cap will not stay here for long. At 15p this is 200% upside they will not get a better opportunity to pounce. 200% upside at 10p is 30p.
VWAP being kept as low as possible to allow a low offer IMHO.
Price is anyone’s guess but I guess 15p would fly