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I truly hope we will see 25p very soon, but what would make HUR a £500M Mcap company? The previous history was based on high reserves numbers. Unless there is a well to fundamentally change the current understanding ( from Mark Hayes’ work). Why would a takeover offer happen unless there is a change in reserves perception? As you say so many questions.
I think you clearly have answered your own question Kerogen/China are the Bond Holders the other players are collateral damage.
We need confirmation on the FPSO, the debt issue and various licence stuff...COP26 fascists may dampen investors enthusiasm for North Sea oilers, they seem determined to DESTROY value and life itself...Marxists masqueradings as concerned citizens...flesh crawlers even worse than Johnson, Starmer and Sturgid
Good morning OTB, Saba could be looking at CA's share price compared to NAV. The discount is around 24% at present but this could close rapidly and thus force Saba to reassess their strategy. Things can change so fast with the type of businesses CA invests in and, boy, don't HUR LTH know this. Also, have a look at the comments made by CA in their annual review in relation to the Saba situation: 'formulate proposals…to reorganise, reconstruct, or wind up the Company'. That is what the articles require CA to do and that could take a long time. Personally, I am not too concerned about the risks of a disorderly wind up/sale of assets. All the best.
golden & on the beach
for clarity - i do not know if kerogen b/holders. i said i would not accept they were not until explanation provided - there is a difference
and kooba over on advfn (their system errors won't let me post at present) - get off my case! u usually post sense, so don't spoil it.
dflynch...
Should I buy shares?
Well I looked at CA a while ago and based on the asset value and the potential for Saba to force a sale I did buy in.
With regard to Saba Capital Management I rather think that they might have had, as yet undisclosed, a change of mind regarding their intended action, as promulgated in the 25 June RNS.
Hurricane, although it might not look like it at the moment to everyone, are an attractive investment / acquisition opportunity. As stated in CA’s RNS today, and commented upon on the Hurricane BB, the previous BoD need to be held to account for the losses of approximately US$111 million. These losses are equivalent, according to CA, to more than 4p a share. Furthermore, the tax losses and allowances, which would feature in the event of a corporate transaction, are equivalent to 56p a share. That’s 60p a share of value and whilst that might not be reflected in any offer for HUR it is reasonable to expect a large percentage of that figure - which would be a multiple of today’s share price.
An investment in Hurricane at the time of the Saba June letter looks very different from how it can be viewed today. Particularly once the CB issue is dealt with, at maturity or before. Indeed, as CA comments in the RNS “… the Fund believes that Hurricane's prospects have been transformed.”
So, as a Saba investment decision maker, would it be justifiably sensible to continue and crystalise the CA fund investments, given CA's achievement with the Hurricane investment and the future prospects of that particular investment?
If CA were to wind-up their fund the market would have difficulty in redistributing the Hurricane shares – leading to a substantial fall in the SP (see Woodford, late of this parish). The investment would have been abysmal and despite the past profits on the investment of £43million, a return of capital c£10million might only be possible. This might be very much less than the overall amount invested overtime.
Of course, Saba might have someone in the wings ready to take these shares as part of an acquisition strategy – but would the other shareholders and the Oil companies allow this to happen?
The CA SP at the time of the letter was c100p today, four months later it is c115p. The NAV of the fund at the end of June was 146.81p per share and at the end of September it is 152.85p.
So do I invest in CA or HUR for the best return?
But if Saba is acting in concert with Kerogen then we certainly do live in interesting times!
Sense 100% agree on your view of Kerogen being involved in the scam takeover . Just hoping that CA are not going to be forced or use Saba and possible restructure as an excuse to do a Deal with Kerogen .
After all the increases in Holdings , i would imagine CA's 27% is at around 5p ave now . So would an offer of 10p be acceptable ?
6 months time with a forward plan in process and zero Debt , this share should be 25p . Can CA wait ?
12 Months time with increased secure production , funded from fcf , a share price of + 50p is possible . Can CA wait ?
If CA sell to the Chinese (Kerogen) will UK allow this ? Coastal Security issues ? Where would a 10p sale leave small Shareholders .
With the recent financial announcement from CA are they looking for +25p ?
Why did SABA make the announcement when they did , as was an obvious statement to rattle both CA and Hurricanes other Shareholders .
Are they part of the Kerogen Plan ? .......... SABA to be precise .
Sooooooo many questions ......
There are many tricky dickies in this world
Putin Russia & XI China are tricky dickey countries
'Putin's People - How The KGB Took Back Russia & Then Took On The West; author Catherine Belton (won Sunday Times Bestseller Award) details the lengths and extent to which Russia goes to undermine and buy UK companies at knock down prices, using 'respectable' financial companies & institutions (which kow-tow for millions in fees).
China is doing similar - certainty
I cannot understand how largest shareholder why Kerogen stood by and did nothing when the Scam Plan was attempted. No sane and/or competent 18% shareholder company would let shares be diluted 95% without uttering a word.
Kerogen may have never held a single bond. I accept this as genuine possibility, for whatever reason.
But until I see intelligible explanation for zero comment or action when 95% dilution is mooted, I will not believe Kerogen have zero bondholding interest.
I too hope that, should Kerogen knock on CA door with 'offer' to buy CA shares, CA will reflect on that offer 'in the round'.
If Kerogen are PRC, and bondholders, and want HUR, it will be a PRC strategic aim. Hence they will be prepared to pay to achieve that aim.
If Kerogen are neither PRC nor bondholders, my words here are fish & chip wrapping, and no harm done.
Save for what would be the legitimate remaining question - why the f*ck' did you stand by and do sod all when ****s tried to steal 95% of your, and our money, when you were the biggest and strongest kind on the block? Where were you...what happened to 'esprit de cours'? How do you sleep at night?