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Schlemiel, good question! I suspect without proactive BOD HUR is going to drift unless macro improves. My hope is that WFT is further amended to exclude smaller players which would re rate HUR. Otherwise , yes bond repayment and confirmation in mid August of sizeable $ cash.
bond repayment is the 24th should see a gradual rise this month far too low at the moment
What exactly is the market waiting for?
Its worth noting that the Market cap is only twice the price of a couple of deep water wells in say the GoM
Highest price in the last 12 months is circa 12p - that quite a premium on todays price - better to just buy CA and sit there pulling the strings
"who is able to buy it …..kerogen …… the bond holders…….another o&g player and what price can induce the long suffering shareholders to sell?"
relatively small beer for a medium sized O&G company . Take out CA and make on offer - if people stick with their shares you still have control and you just ignore those left in the stock
I'd doubt Kerogen would want them. They were a seller in the 40's ... in another life when Bernstein had a valuation of Billions on HUR that was... ahh the plans I had for that money when we would hit £3! I'll take 12p now.
Simple,quite correct and the bidder will have to offer all shareholders at the highest price they have paid in the previous 12 months.
Ofcourse shareholders need not accept the take over offer,unless the bidder manages to acquire 90% of the shares he did not own prior to the bid in which case the remaining shareholders can be forced to sell.
So the crucial questions are, at what price is CA prepared to sell their 29% and who is able to buy it …..kerogen …… the bond holders…….another o&g player and what price can induce the long suffering shareholders to sell?
I suspect that all will be answered by end September.
Ronwoking - If a take over bid was was triggered it still has to follow City Code
Simple
Not quite the only way.If a take over bid was was triggered the bond holders might end up with the entirety of hur and its cash
As the identity of the bondholders is secret we have no idea of their resources other than the bond redemption plus interest proceeds.
"They could use these proceeds to buy CA’s shareholding which ofcourse includes the expected 90mm of cash in hand held by hur."
CA only hold 28% of shares and the only way they would get hold of a share of the expected $90 mil cash is if it is issued as a dividend of which 28% is $25.2 mil. Of course this would mean every shareholder would get a dividend also.
Schlemiel,I wish we knew.The identity of the bond holder group that organised last years proposed restructure was kept secret.I had hoped that the high court would order their disclosure ,but that did not happen.
No doubt that the current bondholders are somewhat different,but will be bound to include a fair sprinkling of the secret group.
So who exactly is or indeed are these bondholders who will see their monies returned to them this month? Are they one whole group or a number of dispersed and unrelated parties?
Dflynch,I suspect that you missed my point.On July 24 the bond holders will receive the redemption proceeds of the bonds.They could use these proceeds to buy CA’s shareholding which ofcourse includes the expected 90mm of cash in hand held by hur.That might trigger a take over offer ……hence the bond holders getting hold of the company
"Perhaps the bond holders may yet get their hands on hur"
With less than 3 weeks to CB maturity and the maturity payment in the bank - risible!
Goldenbadger1 - This is a good, easily understandable guide to mergers & acquisitions (selling the company)
https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/uk-takeovers-and-mergers--how-they-work-and-how-to-trade-them-180927
Golden badger,I believe that the take over code rule is that after having to make a mandatory offer the bidder has to offer the shareholders the highest price it has paid in the past 12 months.
So if a buyer pays CA 15p for its 29% holding and if that triggers a mandatory take over bid the buyer must offer the remaining shareholders at least 15p.
Meanwhile fears of a recession are depressing the oil price and the lack of any activity from the board is damaging the SP.
Perhaps the bond holders may yet get their hands on hur
Goldenbadger1, This certainly feels like a game of cat and mouse between the big wigs, PI's are just an after thought. I feel CA are now on the back foot and they've backed themselves into a corner. I see your theory as possible and the only way CA can stop it from happening is by buying more shares to take themselves over the threshold. CA are not selling so with the small volume of share being traded it will be easy for Kerogen to keep the share price suppressed with little sell offs.
A 14.5% drop in share price since the AGM, no update to shareholders apart from the resolutions past RNS. I see Maris got the message about communications, lip service that's all it was.
In effect, Bernstein will decide what happens to the future direction of Hurricane ie either remain listed or taken back into private hands
Correction it would cost the CB holders £100m to buy out the other 55% at 12p .
Bottom line , Hurricane for £100m which would be recouped by July 2023 .
Is this possible ?
Really this investment comes down to Trust in the BOD unfortunately . The critical time will be July 24th and the settlement of the CB'S . Will this be a clean settlement or will the CB holders strike a deal with CA to buy their 29% ?
If 15p per share is offered to CA (£90m) i think it maybe accepted . With Kerogen involved somewhere, with 16% you can do the maths . The Hurricane cash at around £90m in the bank , would pretty much pay for the above , so the buyer effectively gets Hurricane for free .
Sound familiar . They then take Hurricane private .
Would it be correct to say that the outstanding 55% of shares could be bought out at 12p as highest sp in last 12 months ? Would they need 51% approval ?
Please tell me the above is not possible , as last 18 months experience in PMO and Hurricane does not fill me with confidence or Trust in the BOD or UK FSA .
Or am i talking Kak .
Anybody who has been involved with AIM for any amount of time will know the familar site of an SP sliding for what appears to be no reason - it is part and parcel of AIM. Also, anybody who has been involved with HUR for any length of time will know that the SP here has never really been tied to the PoO - we have seen them shooting in opposite directions for no reason.
What we think we know is that we have a producing well, net free cash to pay off debt and a well life that should give us a cash balance well in advanced of where we are today in terms of SP. There are a lot of things we don't know in terms of what is going on behind the scenes and I appreciate that causes jitters but the fundamentals have not significantly shifted. This is a slide that will be seen all across AIM.
The only thing that really bothers me is that in a lot of other shares that I have been involved in, when a slide like this happens it can often be arrested by the BoD purchasing some shares. It is not always a significant sum, but it reassures that markets that there is confidence in the share and can halt or turn sentiment. The fact that the HUR BoD are not doing that I find really frustrating.
The lack of volume of share trades highly impacts this share, plus the collective drive that can be seen to keep buying in at a low price. Every time the price rises trades bring it back down by a concerted effort, all we can hope is that the BOD, the Plan, a debt free company and the POO will elevate this share to a sensible price.
Well we can hope
adoubleuk passed away? when? that is indeed sad.
We all know simples game. I read all the posts just don't rise to his bait but get a good laff sometimes at how hard hes/she's trying to antagonist certain people
It is argumentative because long term investors are again in a loss and expected profits to grow at this time when is so close to end of the bonds saga. From other side we have a group that is trying to get in cheap as they know the value is great and Hurricane will do a bag from this level by end of this year.