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Strikes me $1.9 mill costs per circa $40 - 45 mill offload offload is OTT. 4% for shipping, paperwork & flogging the stuff - would love that job!
Very helpful indeed Corry. Have noted Prax link so can access in future. By the way, copied your substantive figures post and posting name to ADVFN as certain a few guys there will appreciate it. Hope you don't mind.
Yes, the exchange rate ain't helping us and unlikely to do so short/medium term. So to counterbalance, we're reliant on production staying above projections, and Brent price. Brent is currently defying historical logic by not having reacted to middle east tensions, and other pressures. It is also possible that Prax may buy production assets - but for us we only have 2yrs 10 months left to benefit. The problem (for us) is that Prax only buy (see their history) at bargain basement prices - so unless they can do similar now they may prefer keeping cash in the bank and forsake making use of tax credits. Would be deviation from their business model paying fair price for an asset.
Forgot to state that link will automatically download/open a pdf on your device, rather than open a webpage.
Senseman - yes 17.5% per scheme docs. It is applied after deducting the costs permitted by the scheme and after the FX conversion to £.
The costs I have used are as listed in the first Calculation Statement issued by Prax last September (hopefully this link works, it's on their website if not. Viewing this alongside my calcs below may help with the overall picture of what is likely):
https://www.prax.com/?downloadDoc=3807
In summary - transport downstream, port based charges and marketing.
It does look like your man was maybe quoting in $. Important also to note that the FX is applied to the total payment soon before it is made. The Sept statement shows a rate on 14 Sept, which I suspect is when Prax would draw down the funds from a $ account in good time to make sure they are available for payment at the end of the month.
The FX rate has unfortunately gone against DCU holders more recently, and will likely do so again in Sept if the US moves to cut rates before/faster than UK (and vice versa).
Corry - good round explanation many will find useful. Nicely put.
Can you clarify couple of bits for me?
Do we get 17.5%, not 17%?
Do we get 17.5% of offload sale price MINUS costs? If so, in lay terms what are these costs comprised of? I always (likely wrongly) assumed there was no cost deduction. FYI I was told by a man who knows that DCUs are receiving circa 7mill net with Brent $78-$80. Memory escapes me whether he was talking $ or £, and I for instance forgot, till I read your post, the $ to £ conversion which of course knocks us.
Senseman - thank you for your calculations below. Important I think to highlight - for anyone less knowledgeable or just skim reading these posts - that the increase per offload you have given is an effective net gain over time from having more frequent offloads due to a higher production rate. They don't correspond directly to each 'individual' offload DCU payments that will be receivable, rather that there is a chance of more offloads contributing to each half yearly payment over time, so the overall position gets closer to the 12.5p total.
I have run some indicative calcs on what each offload could pay at current time. There are assumptions built in here because of various unknowns, and I haven't tried to guess what average Brent would be receivable in any specific month (it was $84.94 applied to the last payment = payment of 0.309p per DCU).
For costs I have taken those detailed in the Sept 23 payment notice as indicative for each offload. For total DCUs from the scheme documents - 1,991,871,556. FX I have used recent average estimate of 1.265 £/$ (it was 1.25 applied last Sept). Offload volume held flat at 540k bbl for ease of comparison.
Indicative possible outcomes per 540k offload:
$pbbl - Gross$ - Costs$ - Net$ - £/$ FX - Equiv £ - % due - Total due £ - per DCU
$75 - 40.5m - $1.9m - $38.6m - 1.265 - £30.52m - 17.5% - £5,340,336 - 0.268p
$80 - 43.2m - $1.9m - $41.3m - 1.265 - £32.65m - 17.5% - £5,713,854 - 0.287p
$85 - 45.9m - $1.9m - $44.0m - 1.265 - £34.78m - 17.5% - £6,087,372 - 0.306p
$90 - 48.6m - $1.9m - $46.7m - 1.265 - £36.92m - 17.5% - £6,460,889 - 0.324p
Consensus here last month was that the end Dec/into Jan offload was 'unlikely' to be included in the upcoming payment (so 2 offloads - c.0.6p total per DCU), and that 3 offloads were then likely for the Sept 24 payment. It's all moving targets though so these are all just best guesses and not to be taken literally.
Prax will pay out whatever they think they should pay out from their reading of the scheme document and we will know in a month's time exactly what that will be (payment is due Thursday 28th March).
Best to all, and all the usual caveats and pub rules apply to the above ;o)
FROM ADVFN
2 offloads = 0.7p payment in March
3 offloads = 1p ish
bionictroller
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23/2/2024
16:39 yes my error on posting should read 6720.
As it stands presently we certainly have 2 offloads for the March payment they are
11/7/23 ALTERA THULE to Rotterdam refinary for BP est 533,000
& offload
15th October tanker Altera Wave to the port of Rotterdam.
Offload indicates around 539000 barrels
The December 25th Offload Altera Wind Completed on 2nd January & Estimated to be 524,000 i am not sure how this pans out for payment in March would be nice to have some if not all i dont know how they will treat accounting
laserdisc
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23/2/2024
16:06 laser
thanks for donkey work and explicit directs - worked a treat. have printed off to retain.
unless am blind, to correct for accuracy you no consequence misread dec info, which says 6720 bpd not 6920
but main and crucial for us are 2 good indicators.
i) hur projection nov 23 6700 bpd actual 6870 bpd
dec 23 6300 bpd actual 6720 bpd
this means evidence building production depleting slower than hur/prax projections
meaning offloads more frequent - effectively equates to higher oil price if applied to hur/prax mickey mouse projections
ii) brent $82 with MOST forecasters saying $85-$90 for 2nd half 2024, and 2025
will copy and paste to LSE
laser - your view are we likely to get dcu 1 offload end march/early april (and 3 offloads in dcu payment end sept/early oct? or 2 offloads march/april and 2 in sept/oct?
sense
senseman
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22/2/2024
15:09 i see 6920 per day on this website for Dec, as you say last offload completed 2/1 /24 this next offload is a bit early its up to them when they wish to offload brent rising so they should get a good price all helps dcu holders in due course any offload next week would go into the DCU calculation for 6mth ending June for payment Sept so can/t complain
The DCU payments will be paid biannually in arrears, approximately 90 days after
the end of each 6 month period (those periods ending on 30 June and 31 December each year
jacks1310 Aug '23 - 08:52 - 37750 of 37816
at bottom of screen;
Field Production Data, PPR (WGS84) select: 'Options'
from the drop-down menu select: Filter
A dialogue box will then appear, select: 'Add expression'
In the left-hand drop-down box select: 'Field name (String)'
Then in the third box type in Lancaster and click 'OK'
The data for Lancaster will appear
to download the data;
Select 'Options' again and choose 'Export all to CSV'
laserdisc
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22/2/2024
10:47 Hi Laser
What does this mean?
Last offload was end Dec/completed 1st few days Jan.
Is not next offload not due until towards end March, on fair production?
Why Altera en route to Lancaster now?
Also - for anyone - any updates on P6 production figures from the website they have to publish them on?
senseman
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21/2/2024
16:56 ALTERA THULE
Crucial to whether we hit 12.5p.p.sh max via DCUs is whether Prax/HUR purchase current oil or gas producing assets under the HUR banner. Because profit from such is added to well P6 profits, from which our 17% DCU quantum flows. The promise was that purchase of such assets would be pursued in order that HUR's tax credits could be monetized.
A month ago I I expended several hours difficult grunt work ascertaining from 2 impeccable sources - whose position and interest would be advantaged to report that producing assets were being procured - that to date no such purchases had been attempted, and that no dialogue with any possible producing asset was currently occurring. Since I want and need DCU's to bring us 12.5p.p.sh total at least if not more so than most, it depressed me having to report what I had found. Intelligent readers know that if I report something as fact, it can be relied upon.
My reward for these endeavours was to be called a liar by our resident nutter - water off a ducks back since all identify him as such. Disconcerting however were insinuations from perennial resident lazies (my terminology) esk & broom that the nutter and I are made of the same stuff and, to quote esk...'...both poison to this B while the company was listed and are still at it now.' The 'lazies' never do any grunt work - never have. They mysteriously pop up whenever I post - with factually absurd, snide comment. Do they not realise how daft they sound to intelligent readers when similarly bracketing me and the nutter? Do they take you, the intelligent reader, for a fool?
The failure to purchase producing, profit-generating assets is already grievously damaging our chances of seeing us hit 12.5p.p.sh by the end 2026 cut-off date. We are currently looking at more like 9.5-10.0p total. Perhaps those who swore ('the lazies' included) that 'the deal' was great because we were nigh on certain to get 12.5p total might upon reflection exercise humility!.
Against this massive 'no-buying' disappointment, it has become clear within the grown-up ADVFN discussion Laser refers to - the essence of which I will copy & paste here in a subsequent post - that 2 green shoots of optimism are appearing, ie:
i) Nov 23 production 6870 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6700 bpd
Dec 23 production 6720 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6300 bpd
Jan 24 product not yet known, against Prax/HUR projection 5900 bpd
The import being more frequent offloads, hence more DCU cash. To illustrate - a 400 bpd increase over projections, equates to Brent price of $85 when compared with $80 projected
ii) Brent current $82, with most analyst projecting $85-$90 2024 Q2 Q3 Q4
The import - Brent at say $85 + $5 pb production increase = $90 pb
$90 x 540,000 = $48,600,000 x 17% = $8,262,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.413p p.DCU p.offload
$80 x 540,000 = $43,200,000 x 17% = $7,344,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.367p p.DCU p.offload
slava ukraina
senseman
High Laser,
This is interesting because the recent known production rate indicated mid March for the next offload. Will this be a short load or have Prax carried out work to increase production? Time will tell.
Change of tanker this morning was Altera Thule now
AMUNDSEN SPIRIT
Position: 55° 27' 58" N, 5° 38' 24" E
Last seen: 2024-02-24 08:48 GMT
Location: North Sea, DK
Destination: LANCASTER O F
ETA: 2024-02-25 17:00 GM
I posted
A few snippets over on ADFN not around next week so will update in march
They say somethings never change and this board is proof of that! The battle for Hur is over may she rest in peace!
Surely our concern now is what we will get out of the DCU’s, with this payment I’m in profit which for long periods never looked likely with Hur so can we pass on the historical missives and insults and focus on what will make a difference - Oil prices and production figures…. And ultimately our payments?
My posts were only "poison" as you didn't agree with what I wrote on here. I have a great life. Retired at under 40 years of age and with a loving family.
Both poison to this BB board while the company was listed and you are both still at it now. Get a life, both of you. Surprised there isn't that other guy who I forget the name of here bigging himself up. Mr helicopter pilot.
If one calls Prax and speaks with Vlad Langhamer MD Europe & Asia pretending to be an Energy Voice feature writer you will be told that Prax/HUR did due diligence on several UK production companies but found the asking price (ie. the industry reasonable going rate) too high
AN OUTRIGHT LIE
Kever posts, as zero credibility Simon on ADVFN forum, identical nonsense there.
Kever had respected Divecentre's critical post of him pulled by moderators earlier today.
My advice to readers, for what it is worth, is that experience has shown that Kever's statements of fact to the forum have consistently proven to be less reliable than a chocolate teapot
So the current price of DCU's is a bargain then ?
Is that all you can manage Kever insults? The posting rules are those of London South East, nothing to do with the Stock Exchange. Prax can do due diligence till it is coming out of their backsides but that does not mean a deal is imminent. Cretin.
I bought shares with hurricane @11p. I have just seen I had a small payout from Crystal Amber in October 23. I can’t make sense how much I have received in relation to my investment. Can anyone explain please?
If one calls Prax and speaks with Vlad Langhamer MD Europe & Asia pretending to be an Energy Voice feature writer you will be told that Prax/HUR did due diligence on several UK production companies but found the asking price (ie. the industry reasonable going rate) too high. Prax/HUR have no interest in companies it cannot buy at bargain basement or distressed price. Because it has not been able to identify one it currently has zero interest in any UK company and that position is unlikely to change soon. Prax/HUR will not be drilling P8 because it is not willing to risk the money, and also the NSTA will not lift a finger to help HUR in any way, despite Prax now owning HUR, whilst HUR current management remains, on account of the previous bad blood caused by HUR management.
Be lazy enough to speak with Angelique in IR (if she exists) who sits there all day painting her nails answering the phone and you will receive the standard fob off generic one line answer cited. Put another way - you may as well ask the cat!
Have been told by reliable source that DCU 17% share of each offload @ at $78/80 oil = 7 million (I assume dollars).
Which divided by 2 billion shares = circa .3p per offload. Does this sound about right?
Also that by end 2026 we are likely to see under 10p total (ie nowhere near 12.5p).
Doing the sums - assuming production doesn't crash crash so offload each 3 months
2023(2) + 2024(4) + 2025(4) + 2026(4) = 14 offload total x .3p = 4.2p
6.02p initial payment + 4.2p = 10.42p
BUT, even if production doesn't crash crash but rather depletes more gradually as we hope, it must lessen to some degree - so knock 1p off (could be more). I expect P6 to be economic beyond 2026 but we will get none of that.
We would need $100 oil for long periods between now & end 2026 to get within striking distance of 12.5p.
There have been 2 good articles published past few days - one Bloomberg saying oil should have $12 supply disruption risk added to current price because of risk greater middle east conflict. Another saying signs of China finally waking up again following strong government measures. problem is - can't copy and paste openable links on here nowadays. I do not see oil staying at $80 - has been minor miracle stayed so low for so long.
HUR are currently involved in NO negotiations to buy any oil or gas production assets which will increase the DCU payments. Nor, if they do enter any, will they likely be completed before end 2026 and producing cashflow
P8 is not being drilled
Ergo, as things stand we are looking at circa 9.5p total. Which will only improve with significant higher oil price
SE rules only apply to listed companies bozzo. How can any information be price sensitive when the shares are not even listed ? Fool. if you bother to ring PRAX like I did and speak to Angelica in IR she will cnfirm that Prax are doing due diligence on numerous UK producers.
Prax aren't listed and neither are HUR you ejjit. market abuse my backside.
“Prax have lined up numerous deals to use the HUR tax credits I am told”
Where is the evidence to support this claim Kever? It is not the first time you have made it and nothing has materialized yet. That is a FACT. If you have insider knowledge then you are flouting posting rule 5 b (post any confidential or price sensitive information or that is not public knowledge), and if it is speculation then 5 c (post misleading or false statements regarding the share price and performance. Such posts are deemed as market abuse, and may be reported to the appropriate authorities).
I suggest you are someone who has a warped understanding of the truth.
"how far above a 12.5p share price would we be now be if a still shareholder owned hur was banking 100% of p6 profits"
Id HUR 2 had failed and HUR stayed as it was then it would be 9p max until P6 sent dry. Prax have lined up numerous deals to use the HUR tax credits I am told. 12.5p payout is a cert
Missing words from part 1... 'in our favour'
Part 2
"I am fighting for financial survival on account of my HUR efforts - which is why until now has not allowed me the time to become au fait with the DCU minutia - but which now makes it imperative that I do. That is why I have reached for a quick handle re how much we can expect going forward, and when.
Magic - thanks for kind words"