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DC,
"First reported case in China was 19th November. "
To be exact, I think you'll find that that person involved was the first 'unexplained fatality' where a case of some sort of 'flu suddenly developed badly. The thing had already been around for a while. Actual identification of the virus being 'new' only happened in early January, but the genie was well out of the bottle by then.
bartlebobton
"It's not a simple issue, it's more, much more, than just pointing a finger."
Every country in the world will have to account to its own people for their management of this crisis.
Only one country was responsible for causing it.
Yawn ... ADUK ...it's old news.... you distractable doofus....
There's something rather ironic I've noticed while watching the news. Which 'european' country (just about the only one) not under some kind of lockdown? Yup, you've guessed, that country where Abba came from, more recently shoved into the shadows by a young lady advocating that the world uses less oil, and stuff like that. Sweden. Business as usual there, it seems.
I wonder if she's happy she's got her wish? Maybe she's now back attending school, 'cos they're still open there.
Of course, Sweden has the highest suicide-rate of any 'european' country, but I guess we'd better not mention that.
We can only go off the figures and data we have. The death rate is based off the confirmed and known cases. Obviously we can't know for sure how many cases that might exist in the wild that we don't know of. Similarly we don't know how many of deaths have occured where people may have been infected by coronavirus but never tested either.
It's best to stick to the known figures and actual data at hand.
.... think about the testing;
A Doctor, is -ve one day, the next day he could be +ve, are all NHS staff on the front line tested on a daily basis, I doubt it.
Hi good message, the problem with the numbers is they only include people who have bee tested, the vast majority will have had the virus and not be in the figures, the death rate would be very lower for the under 70s, and a many old folk pass away due to the complications of a common cold.
DCentre... I mean literally; if nothing was done by any country.... If you are pointing the finger, it's not just China, who is "guilty" . We had BJ laughing at a press conference, boasting he had shaken hands, with a number of people with CV the previous day, 1 mtr to his left and right; Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallence. It's bit of a different tale now, the WHO made it clear what should be done, there was a lag, look at daily testing figures of Germany, they are in the region of 80/90000 .. UK 20k.
There is something called "Avoidable’ mortality" which can be used to measure the quality / performance of a health system, what would you expect to see if you compared the UK to, say ? It's a method used to make cross-country comparisons, cases of unnecessary disease, disability, untimely deaths. What medical knowledge is available per country, medical + health personal, laboratories, the responsibility of an individual, the responsibility of a government. if everything goes well a condition is prevented or managed, who responsibility is it, as I pointed out above there is a chain, for example not every child is immunised against measles, a choice of parents.
There are also "Negative consequence" of medical care, in the US there are around 90k deaths associated by medical errors, look to thalidomide.
It's not a simple issue, it's more, much more, than just pointing a finger.
Winalot, the biggest problem will be 19 bodies jammed into that S92.
Its laughable that the Heliports are all observing the social distancing rules, and then they pack the chopper full, as it would be too costly to do otherwise.
Majority of the time, Supervision have single man cabins anyway.
LW, with those regular anticipated deaths there is no panic and it's widely accepted that it happens. Things like cancer, heart disease etc.
With Coronavirus, if we didn't go to the extraodinary lengths the world is currently going to (locking down entire countries, shutting down air traffic, paying people to stay at home, desparately trying to acquire 10,000's of ventilators, pulling in hospital ships, seeting up field hospitals, etc etc) how many deaths would we actually have?
As I write this there are 743,286 confirmed cases in the world. There are 35,350 confirmed deaths of people who have tested positive for coronavirus.
This means there is a 4.75% death rate globally for those who have contracted coronavirus at thsi moment in time.
If approx 66% of the world population acquired coronavirus then you would expect:
(8 billion x 0.66) x 0.0475 = 250,800,000 deaths.
so approx 250million people would die. Doesn't bear thinking about does it. So consequently the world has literally had to to to extreme lengths to prevent that possibility from being realised.
Unlike Cancer or Heart Disease or Stroke or whatever - this coronavirus is something that is within our power to stop and prevent. It's within our capability to minimise the damage and minimise the deaths. So why as a human race would we not?
Unless of course money means more to you then human life?
To be fair - the first reported case was at least a month before the UK went into lockdown too. In fact most western states tried to hold off going into lockdown as much as possible. Take the USA for example - currently with 142,000 cases and still no major lockdown, just governors of states left to their own devices to manage it. In fact most US states (mainly the republican states) are doing their best to avoid going anywhere near a lockdown and even downplaying the severity of the situation. The. US has become the new epicenter!
Pisces: "Second tanker in a week as I predicted the other day ;-)"
Won't be much profit to be made out of this trip, however a profit is a profit and better than nowt, as they say.
Decisions, decisions.
When do I order some heating oil...
Not surprised this auld thing has taken a dive! Was considering takin a punt but the previous poster put me right off! He done me a big favour.
Thanks Dive!
Bartlebobton
First reported case in China was 19th November. It was only 2 months later that Wuhan was put in lockdown. China sat on their hands for 2 months which is why the world is in this f***ing mess.
"While efforts such as the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump planning to send a special energy envoy to Saudi Arabia to work on stabilising global crude markets will give energy journalists something to write about, for the moment the efforts are likely to be as successful as whistling against the wind"
https://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-health-coronavirus-crude/column-coronavirus-demand-hit-renders-opec-trump-manoeuvres-irrelevant-russell-idUSL4N2BN0OS
Second tanker in a week as I predicted the other day ;-)
KSARussia/OPEC now just a red herring. The article says it is pipeline operators, with no storage, and refineries with no demand, driving down demand for crude just as Cv has driven down demand for the refined product. Simple supply chain knock on.
Above due Lancaster field 1st. April 08.00.
LW... Look at it this way; how many people would die ...if China ...Europe ...et al, sat on their hands and did nothing ?
Sailplane: "as storage capacity dwindles.
And, apparently, a plan being pushed to limit Texas production in a deal with OPEC."
http://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/3/30/pipelines-ask-us-drillers-to-slow-output-as-storage-capacity-dwindles
Looks as though the Ruskies and the Sauds are going to have their wicked way with the Yankies shale then?
In the basement ... ?
....both must be very close to the floor. 'The only way is UP'
The number of COVID-19 fatalities is small compared to the 12 million total number of people who have already died this year from all causes, but the numbers could reach 3.6 million in just eight weeks at the current pace of deaths doubling each week. In the counterfactual, without COVID-19, we would expect 60 million global deaths in 2020, with 18 million people dying from heart disease, 10 million from cancer, 6.5 million from respiratory diseases, 1.6 million from diarrhea, 1.5 million in road incidents, and 1 million deaths from HIV/AIDS. Suicides could number 800,000.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/03/23/a-mortality-perspective-on-covid-19-time-location-and-age/