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Longwait,
"We're talking about different 'theys', Double."
I don't think we are.
"I'm referring to the mass media and you're referring to the authorities."
They've become the same. Unfortunately. And despite the mass media proclaiming their 'freedom of expression', all they do now is just unwittingly act as the 'authorities' megaphone. Hey! These days, we know what the Queen's Speech is going to be before she's given it. We have 'leaked documents' from Downing Street before the PM's said anything.
Honestly, all my local shops and bars have been closed up because of something someone's said on the telly, and the police are out asking me for a bit of paper whenever I want to go for a walk. But I haven't seen any tumbrils coming down my street laden with bodies. In fact, haven't seen any ambulances turning up anywhere in the vicinity in a hurry.
Not walking to the hospital to see how things are, 'cos despite my investigative journalistic instincts, it's more than the kilometer distance from home I'm allowed to go.
Dunno what to believe, believe me.
Mr B Bobtown,
You are without doubt an absolute T---t, someone whom likes the sound of his own voice, someone whom thinks he knows what he is talking about, you do my head in, just having to read your puerile responses to AK.
Please, Foxtrot Oscar to other play areas, like the Lego Forum, or How to build a Tree House in your front room :O)
Here are some of the phrases I like from the Spectator article:
That puts the morbidity rate of Covid in the range associated with flu - except the huge number of people with Covid still have the disease, its not very scientific to compare a pandemic mid way through with other death rates.
We have yet to see any evidence of excess deaths - firstly, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence...that's pretty basic science. Secondly this is clearly untrue if you just take a moment to understand what's happening in hospitals and what doctors and nurses around the world are saying, geez even the Chinese state says it.
More needs to be known about the models, do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions etc - this shows how little the author understands epidemiology and the government advice. How could it possibly model the difference of isolating for 12 weeks people over 70 and those with pre-existing conditions? If that wasn't in the model nothing could have been said about the impact of those social distancing measure.
The mind boggles...
View from a Caribbean island
We have had free movement of people on and off island up until ten days ago. The island has exchange students in Wuhan China and a large island population living in New York with constant movement back and forth. An American university, along with tourist from all over the world. One of our neighbours mother and son brought back a nasty cold from New York and this ran through the area where I live in January, it started with a fever and fatigue followed by a brief stomach up set and a dry hacking cough that lasted for about a week. Everyone recovered, some cough were very persistent. This is a common story all over the island; there is a life expectancy of around 76 years.
Our first confirmed and test corona virus patient on island was a British holiday maker that arrived in mid March and was test positive a few days later. This was the first testing done on island. In the tropical environment viruses’ are generally mild affairs. It is Dengue, chikungunya and Zeka that lay people up.
The island now has a 7 day 24 hour lock down. Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted comes to mind.
With current testing policy only really sick people get tested, the vast majority of cases will never come in the statistics, this is the case world wide.
my take on CV.
if you look at mortality statistics in the uk for last 3 months of 2019 there were about 1435 deaths per day. the deaths from flu during 2018/2019 season was 1692 which was particularly low. however in the last 5 seasons the average deaths per year was 17000 which equates to 47 per day.
the first death from cv in the uk was recorded was on 4/3/20 ...27 days later we are up to 1789 deaths with 381 deaths in the last 24 hours.
italy has 837 deaths in the last 24 hours having been in lockdown for a couple of weeks. we are 2 weeks behind and seemingly on a similar trajectory
this is more contagious than flu and has a higher mortality rate. Not having taken the precautions that Taiwan or South korea took - without a lockdown we dont know where the figures would have ended up. we are also at the very beginning of the outbreak with no idea how long it will last and whether there will be a number of waves etc. There is also evidence of people catching it a second time.
the 1918 flu was estimated to have infected about a third of the world's population with an estimated 50 million deaths
We're talking about different 'theys', Double.
I'm referring to the mass media and you're referring to the authorities.
I'm not complaining about suspension of liberties; my complaint is about the media's dominance of daily life.
AQS raises a good point about the NHS running out of respirators, but what if it did have enough to cope with CV, and then we got hit by something much nastier?
Remember, the Black Death wiped out a third of Europe's population (and presumably a third of journalists).
How could the NHS possibly cope with a health crisis of that size?
Longwait,
"They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react."
That's not the point.
'They' also shut down commerces, pubs, restaurants, shops other than those selling food, etc. 'They' also also limit how far we can go for a walk, and have the police enforce that. 'They' tell me I can't get in my car and drive 40 miles to play poker with some friends. While 'They' impose taxes to the extent that diesel costs 1.5 euros a litre, whereas we know that there's so much of the stuff it ought to be retailed at about 5 cents.
And now 'They' are 'self-isolating' 'cos they've got the same bug as everyone else...!
what has NHS funding got to do with France, USA , Italy,Spain etc who all have shortages because of the severity of covad?
AQS,
"Odd that, I don't recollect hospitals rapidly running out of respirators in previous years for this "routine" flu virus then!"
No, maybe not. But I do recollect both political parties during both the Brexit arguing and the elections saying the NHS was underfunded and running close to the limit. Maybe they were both right, and now push has come to shove, that's the case. I guess a bit of kit like like a 'respirator' has a 'usage life', just like a car. But instead of using funds to replace equipment, it's gone into different pockets. Now we see the result.
acrossthesea,
Tks for the links.
The first I had already seen, but the second I hadn't, and it was interesting.
I particularly liked this phrase.
"The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science."
Sure, one can be 'subjective', and be cynical about the whole thing because of the hardships which governments are imposing on us.
But there are also objective reasons to be cynical. Even if while sitting back in one's armchair while under 'lockdown' there's nothing to be done about it.
What I see is 'systems breakdown'.
Here's a stark case.
The UK health-system is supposedly at 'breaking point' due to CV-19. This 'scare' has caused people to 'add a new system', such as bringing more people in to supposedly shore up the thing. Like 'grounded' airline cabin-crews, and turning the Excel centre into a hospital. But there's already a shortage of health-staff PPE, and health-staff are already coming down with CV-19, leading to a lack of people to train the incomers into their new roles. For whom yet more PPE will be required. Etc..
There's a lot of 'positive feedback' occurring here, and that's never a good thing.
Plus it's all being 'improvised', and that's not good, neither.
KSA / Russia and oil is almost a sideline. But over a matter of a few months, the economy's been wrecked, and civil liberties essentially curtailed. Something's bound to go 'pop' (or KERBOOM!) soon.
Fortunately, help in that respect might be on its way. Google 'comet Atlas'. Just a marginal shift in trajectory...
Odd that, I don't recollect hospitals rapidly running out of respirators in previous years for this "routine" flu virus then!
You are right the amount of deaths due to flu where more last year than this virus so we need to take the flu deaths away from the coved deaths and I suggest the figure is not so great then. Although not sure if I should post this on this forum.
Thanks for the link to a very interesting article.
I said yesterday that it would be interesting to compare the numbers who usually die (of all diseases) with the numbers dying now.
Well, according to Dr Lee, one would normally expect about 51,000 people to die during the time that 422 died of CV here, so it doesn't really matter how many died in total this time, because the CV numbers are so small compared with the total numbers that usually die.
'If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.'
'The average age of those dying in Italy is 78.5 years, with almost nine in ten fatalities among the over-70s. The life expectancy in Italy — that is, the number of years you can expect to live to from birth, all things being equal — is 82.5 years.'
'Much of the response to Covid-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before.'
That's because our lives are now dominated by the mass media in a way that previous generations' were not dominated before.
They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react.
The television news set the attacks on the Twin Towers to music; the media told us 'the world will never be the same again'; they tried to get members of the public to cry on camera when Princess Diana died, and they will milk this story until something better comes along.
As usual, they are doing what they like best: making history.
Ghengis; been reading your postswith interest. Isn't a key factor (for med-term poo) the willingness of financiers to refund US shale once the MBS/Putin poo hose-down closes? With dumbasses like BP ponying-up $10bn for US shale assets, will fracking america-style (also tar-sands) resurface due to Trump-encouragement (subsidisation), or will the withdrawal of the likes of Shell actually suceed in killing it off? How farwill trumpetass go to protect his principal strategic asset?
gla
Your message is on the money and looking at the bigger picture. Two very good links:-https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think?fbclid=IwAR3d-BaqfPgEB7aXgEBw-hQHn6cqO1p4eK2tMJ_aDzSM8vflqyNqpy-ZStY https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR3T8nAq0HVK-xd_ObNK8jicpfXt45LaPTAPDL6g-G2VSfn6GT0ZYqD1Wjo
Pecten11,
Sorry, missed your reply.
"Perhaps the key dataset presently missing, is the %of asymptomatic cases in the population - something which could manifestly change the current predictive models"
Yes. It's a key dataset, but not simply related to 'asymptomatic' cases. How about people who had symptoms and the 'rottenest case of flu they'd ever had in their lives' but aren't of the mindset to go to A&E or call their doctor whenever they feel a bit under the weather? (I put myself into that mindset, and don't call the doctor because due to various reasons, most don't do house-calls any more.)
It's why I'm very sceptical about the data one sees on the TV, and why I've stopped watching such stuff so frequently. I'm not in a panic about CV-19, but our 'leaders' obviously are. Because the micey-nicey 'systems' are breaking down.
i suspect greta is learning to be careful what she wishes for. this is the part of the future she wants - less travel
whilst it sounds good when you can travel the world at the courtesy of those who indulge you - when she has to lie the life she wants the rest of us to maybe it is not so attractive. her generous sponsors might be a little more preoccupied these days
virtual signalling wokeness is a first world problem when there isn't the the problems of survival. when people have to start living like too many do in reality they will find it won't be so high up on their agenda
Longwait,
"Let’s get one thing straight. The collapse in oil demand as a result of the worldwide response to the Covid-19 virus is a much, much bigger problem than the additional barrels threatened by Saudi Arabia and Russia — none of which has arrived yet. As airplanes stop flying and drivers stop driving, they are going to struggle to find buyers for their oil, just like everyone else."
Agree.
Greta Thumbsuck must be rubbing her hands with glee. But we haven't heard much out of her, lately. Maybe she's gone back to school. After all she lives in one of the few countries where such establishments still remain open.
acrossthesea,
"finally some one with insight into the the true nature of what is going on with this virus. This really is story of The Emperor's New Clothes."
To whom are you referring? Send link, please.
finally some one with insight into the the true nature of what is going on with this virus. This really is story of The Emperor's New Clothes.
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
"Colds being transmitted because of people being close together in winter is not the main reason that happens. Think about your life and how much time you spend in enclosed spaces with people even in summer, it's not that different. "
A sweeping statement, which all depends on peoples' 'lifestyles', where they live, and so on. Sure, if one's office-bound for work, not much difference between the seasons. But not everyone is tied to a desk.
Heck! I'm 'retired' and live in the centre of a town. But right now in early spring, I'd be reckoning on spending more of my time 'outdoors' than cooped-up in my flat, as is the current situation. Or on the road in my car, which is 'home-from-home' for me, and maybe where I'm the most 'zen relaxed'.
But that's a liberty which has been taken away from me by a 'government' in panic-mode, sticking band-aids onto a 'system' which has failed, and thereby creating even greater problems down the line.
Let’s get one thing straight. The collapse in oil demand as a result of the worldwide response to the Covid-19 virus is a much, much bigger problem than the additional barrels threatened by Saudi Arabia and Russia — none of which has arrived yet. As airplanes stop flying and drivers stop driving, they are going to struggle to find buyers for their oil, just like everyone else.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-31/trump-and-putin-are-all-talk-on-plunging-oil-prices
I don't believe people's behaviour is so drastically different in terms of numbers of social contacts at Christmas compared to any other time. After all Covid was spreading quite a lot in February and March.
Colds being transmitted because of people being close together in winter is not the main reason that happens. Think about your life and how much time you spend in enclosed spaces with people even in summer, it's not that different. The reason is more likely the cold and dry air supports viruses travelling further and stick around longer as well as people's immune systems not working as well because of a shortage of vitamin D.
IAmNotAnAnalyst,
Sorry, forgot this part of your post.
"Your earthquake analogue is only applicable if Covid drastically changed in December."
I disagree.
It's HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (carriers of the virus) which changes around December! Holidays. People going hither-and-thither around the global village to 'be with family', and so on. And in places like Europe, suddenly cramming themselves together in warm places, in close proximity, and so on. Airports crammed. Etc...
The virus doesn't have to change at all. It's just being given an ideal 'incubator'.
Just like the Common Cold. People generally associate that with wintertime, and the weather. Poppy****. It's simply because in wintertime, people tend to stay closer together in warm places.
A vaccine for CV-19? Still haven't found one for the 'Common Cold' yet. Not even quite sure what it is.
ADUK thanks for the response, apart from referring to the individual I observed licking his fingers as my acquaintance- only true in the most literal sense, most definitely not in any meaningful way.
At the moment the actual method of transmission, the incubation period of the virus and the viral load needed for differing degrees of infection is still to be confirmed, so yes, it is possible that the SARS-CoV-2 virus gas been in circulation for longer, however, the commonality of the cases/mortality curves worlwide would suggest otherwise.
Perhaps the key dataset presently missing, is the %of asymptomatic cases in the population - something which could manifestly change the current predictive models